Stephen Middot; Roach
If you want to deal with the popular economic and financial consequences of the 2019 coronary virus, you must first check the earlier crisis precedent and its remedial measures.Many people believe that the most related cases are the global financial crisis in 2008, especially after the unconventional monetary policy operation announced on March 15th of the Federal Reserve.But this will be a regrettable mistake.
Those methods that work 11 years ago will not work now.Coronary virus is popular in the anti -mirror image of the global financial crisis, and targeted policies must be responded.
First of all, the global financial crisis is a financial impact that caused a heavy blow to the real economy, and the coronary virus epidemic is a public health crisis.Therefore, the strict epidemic of regional blockade, transportation ban and restricting public rally has impacted the real economy, and brings catastrophic consequences to enterprises, workers and financial fields.
During the global financial crisis, the unprecedented routine movement adopted by the Federal Reserve is both proper and decisive, and the main source of the impact on the touches: Determination of the financial system.The Federal Reserve cannot play the same role in this crisis crisis, because it is busy dealing with a secondary impact: the main impact of the financial impact of the financial impact on the real economy.
In fact, the United States must be regarded as a necessary but insufficient means to solve the crisis crisis.At least it can be said that the Fed plays a delicate role here.
The policy formulation of the Federal Reserve in the crisis must always be cautious.As the crisis intensifies, the Fed will definitely be in a difficult situation.However, it rarely announced on March 15 that the urgency conveyed from an emergency action (only two days before the regular policy conference was held), which undoubtedly exacerbated investors' concerns and triggered an immobilized rumor.But this is the end, we will never know whether the Fed will wait for a few days to take a few days of shot.
However, this incident highlights an disturbing fact: we have become too dependent on monetary policy to get rid of all the dilemma in the world.After the Federal Reserve Sunday suddenly came out on Sunday, the financial market massacre of this period issued a strong information: the central bank had effective in the Big Bazooka (Big Bazooka) that fell the bottom line at the end of 2008 and early 2009, not only to deal withThe wrong weapon of this public health crisis lacks real bombs.
Of course, this has always been a great risk.Due to the failure to achieve normal policy interest rates after the global financial crisis, the central banks of various countries have not many options when responding to the next impact.We discovered again and again that the next impact is always different from the last time, but it always seems to focus on the re -setting of the above crisis as a blueprint policy, regulations, and economic structure, so it can also be sadly against the coming crisis.No preparation.
Corresponding crisis can only be found in fundamentally, and in this epidemic popularity, the focus must be placed on virus curb.This must take rapid and pioneering actions. First, it focuses on the construction of public health infrastructure and related scientific research on the relevant scientific research of virus transmission.
Some people compare the epidemic to the time of war to emphasize the scale and scope of the current policies.Although this is appropriate, the premise is that there must be a certain degree of political consensus, and this political consensus is very scarce in the current extremely differentiated environment.Unfortunately, the combination of the three major factors of domestic bipolar differentiation, national protectionism, and the global government make it particularly difficult to deal with global issues together.
As in the past, after the crisis passed, people would deeply reflect on how they were in trouble at the time, and they would definitely re -evaluate the globalization of the poverty -stricken country and the wealthy country.With the rapid expansion of the world trade and the explosive expansion of the global value chain accompanying, the economically developed economies can play the role of producer to reduce their poverty and improve living standards; and as a developed country, it isYou can buy cheaper products (also gradually contain a lot of cheap services).This win -win situation of globalization has almost persuaded everyone to pay for them.
However, globalization has also led to a world of interdependence, unfortunately obsessed with the rapid economic growth: the faster the growth, the greater the winner of producers and consumers.Unfortunately, this ignores the growth of growth MDASH; MDASH; not only does it need to invest in relieving diseases and public health infrastructure (the Coronary Virus crisis has been exposed), as well as environmental protection, because of the relevant climate changeThe evidence is very clear.
The script of the global financial crisis was originally written for the world that faced the lack of economic growth, so it was impossible to provide answers for a world that encountered the impact due to the lack of growth quality.Currency and fiscal policies can alleviate the financial markets, as well as short -term distress of those who have been heavily founded enterprises and communities, but are unable to satisfy the urgency of curbing and alleviating diseases.
The current extensive consensus is that the best way to restart the global growth engine is to flatten the curve of coronary virus infection in various countries and the world.This must be the absolute focus of decision makers in this crisis, rather than using the currency and fiscal policy templates of the last crisis.
History has proven that the toughness of the modern world economy after a negative impact also provides hope for a self -creation rebound, but all this can only become reality after curbing coronary virus.
Author Stephen S. Roach is a senior researcher and senior lecturer at the Jackson Global Affairs Research Center of Yale University in the United States. He was the chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia Investment Co., Ltd. and authorized the imbalance: The UNBALARANCED: The CodepEndency ofAmerica and China)
English Title: The FALSE CRISIS Comparison
Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2020
