Current affairs perspective
The rapid development of the 2019 Coronary Virus epidemic in the world not only brings tremendous pressure on countries, but also brings more future uncertainty.All countries are trying to explore the anti -epidemic mode that is suitable for their own national conditions to reduce uncertainty as soon as possible and form a new order of production and life.
Now everyone has abandoned the fantasy of completely eliminating the coronary virus. Before the high -efficiency and low -toxic coronary vaccine occurs and popularize, strive to control the spread of virus and maintain normal production and life order, to find the best balance point that meets their own national conditions.EssenceWhich epidemic mode is good, low cost, and sustainable?
We can compare the current four anti -epidemic modes, which may help us think about the next step.The anti -epidemic mode can be classified from two dimensions. First, whether the local governments pay attention to it in time, and take strong measures as soon as possible to respond to the spread of the virus. Based on this, it can be found that some government values early and responding early, but some respond to the response.The second is based on the economic and social costs brought by the anti -epidemic measures of various governments. It can be found that some anti -epidemic measures have a large impact on production and life, high costs, and some of them have less impact and small costs.
The government responded early in the first type of model, and the economic and social costs brought by the measures were relatively small.In the past, the three Asian four dragons: Singapore, Taiwan, and Hong Kong are typical representatives of this model, especially Singapore and Taiwan. Its efficient and low -cost resistance achievements have been widely reported by many international media.
These three places have suffered a serious impact of Shas virus in 2003. They all learned lessons and established a complete decision, communication and support system for the public health crisis, and now they have finally had a place of use.
All three places are closely related to mainland China, and the possibility of the mainland epidemic has more vigilance and attention than other countries, so they have taken countermeasures early.The administrative ability of the three governments when dealing with the epidemic is very strong. With the help of public health experts, with the support of a very complete and advanced public health system, the response measures are gradually upgraded according to the development of the epidemic.On the other hand, reduce the impact on society as much as possible.
Of course, there are many different places in the three places. For example, Singapore and Taiwan's society has high support for government resistance measures, but Hong Kong also has a lot of criticism for government resistance measures for government resistance due to large -scale protests last year;For another example, after the emergence of the epidemic in Taiwan and Hong Kong, everyone has developed a mask culture of everyone wearing masks, but Singapore has not wearing masks, like Western countries so far.The new challenge facing the three places now is that input -type cases have increased sharply. In order to prevent input -type cases from causing local infection, the three governments of the three places have further strengthened anti -epidemic measures.
The government response in the second type of model has caused the epidemic to outbreak and has to take high -cost strong response measures. Fortunately, these measures effectively control the epidemic.The typical representative of this type of model is China. It was once the country with the worst epidemic in the world.With social costs, we are now trying to restore the order of production and life.
The strong mobilization and monitoring capabilities of the Chinese government ensure the effectiveness of high -intensity measures. However, like Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, they also face two main problems: First, how to prevent the rapidly increasing input cases bring local infection.The second is how to find the best balance between resistance and maintenance of production and life.
In the third type of model, the government responded late, causing the epidemic outbreak, and had to make up for the rapid upgrading measures, which caused a huge impact on production and life. However, because the response was too late, the measures after the upgrade still could not immediately curb the epidemic, so the epidemic still continued to deteriorateIt is still uncertain when it can control the epidemic like China.Many countries in this category have become hot spots on international media reports. For example, the United States in North America, Italy in Europe, France, Spain, Iran in the Middle East, etc. It is estimated that more countries will join this type in the future.
In fact, many of these countries are developed countries in the West, and the medical system is also very complete and advanced, but because of the rapid and severity of the development of the epidemic development in the early days, the number of cases has increased rapidly, causing tremendous pressure on the medical system.There is a temporary shortage of medical resources, and the final result is the decline in the treatment effect.The countries in this type of model will eventually control the epidemic like China, and then they will gradually change to the first type of anti -epidemic mode like China.Looking forward to the early day.
In the fourth type of model, the government responded late, resulting in a certain degree of outbreaks, but did not take great measures on economic and social life, but effectively controlled the epidemic.The representatives of this category are the recent praise of South Korea and Japan, which has confused many experts.These two countries receive a large number of Chinese tourists every year, but they do not take measures to take measures early as Singapore and Taiwan early, causing the epidemic to start a certain degree of outbreak.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, South Korea did not take such high -intensity measures like China. Relying on large -scale testing and the positive cooperation of the people gradually controlled the epidemic, but there was a distance between transition into the first type of model, because the number of new cases per day was changed, because the number of new cases per dayStill than countries and regions in the first category.The Japanese government has not responded strongly on the epidemic, and it seems that it is to maximize maintaining economic and social life to be affected.Judging from the number of confirmed cases reported by the government and its growth, Japan is the country with closest first models, but many experts suspect that the low number of Japanese diagnosis is due to the small number of detection.
Now it seems that the first type of anti -epidemic mode should be the direction of the efforts of various countries in the future, that is, on the one hand, it can effectively control the epidemic situation, on the other hand, it can minimize the negative impact of anti -epidemic measures on the economy and society.To the lowest.
The biggest challenge faced by the government in the first type of model is to prevent input -type cases from causing large local infections; if China in the second type of model is transformed into the first type, it is necessary to restore economic and social life as soon as possible; No. 1Three types of models need to be transformed into a second type of model first, that is, after effective control of the epidemic, continue to work hard to the first type of model; the fourth type of model is the closest to the first type of mode.Soon, like Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, it should become the first type of anti -epidemic mode.
The author is a researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore
The Chinese government's strong mobilization and monitoring capabilities ensure the effectiveness of high -intensity measures, but like Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong, they also face two main problems: one is how to prevent the rapidly increasing input -type cases bring local infection, twoHow to find the best balance between resistance and maintenance of production and life.
