In the perspective of God, the epidemic will eventually pass, but in the short term, people are struggling with mdash; mdash; what the small people feel the people feel unbearable.
Between the danger of infection and the shrinking money bag, the choice is dilemma.Between stable economy and stimulating policies, policies are also facing choices.
On March 27, China held a meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee.This meeting was held in advance before the two sessions, and the industry was considered to be further settled for the economy in 2020.Since February, the Politburo meeting has been held many times, and the economy has been in a good amount.
What new information is there this time?
Economy becomes new focus
First of all, in the judgment of macro situations, the stable economy has been promoted to the position of anti -epidemic, becoming the focus of the future.
In this conference, the current epidemic is emphasized, and the epidemic prevention and control strictly prevent the transition from the stability.New major changes are undergoing the prevention and control of the epidemic at home and abroad. The overseas epidemic has accelerated the spread and spread, and the growth of world economic and trade growth has been seriously impacted. The pressure on my country's epidemic input continues to increase. Essence
Since March, the epidemic has spread globally.British Health Minister, Prime Minister Boris, and even Crown Prince Charles have detected positive, and the number of infections in the United States has exceeded China.All countries are working hard to resist, and different countries with different countries will take time to evaluate the effect.It is worth noting that the asymptomatic patients in China have not calculated the number of new infections, and the statistical diameter is different.
At present, the Chinese epidemic strategy fixes external prevention input and internal defense, and at the same time, it clearly allows the economic operation of the stopping.It should be noted that the economy is a complex system that connects each other upstream and downstream, and restoring the operation of the industrial chain will become the top priority.
How to get out of fiscal policy and monetary policy
Secondly, in terms of fiscal policy, the increase in deficits is inevitable.
During the meeting, proposed positive fiscal policies should be more active, appropriately increase the fiscal deficit rate, issue special government bonds, and increase the scale of special bonds for local governments.The statement of special government bonds is proposed for the first time, and its role will be more targeted to the epidemic.
The 2020 finance itself has faced the pressure of revenue, and the epidemic has even increased the responsibility of expenditure.According to the latest data, the national fiscal revenue in February decreased by 21.4%year -on -year, and it has been recorded since 2008.In the downward trend, there are also differentiation. The eastern and coastal areas are slightly better, and the central and western regions are more serious. For example, Shanxi fell 39.9%year -on -year, and Hubei decreased by about 99%.
Third, in terms of monetary policy, looseness is self -evident.
The meeting pointed out that a stable monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate, guide the interest rates of the loan market, and maintain reasonable liquidity.At present, the spread of banks is reduced, and the pressure of bad debt is increased, especially for small and medium -sized enterprise banks.This means that colleagues who are relaxing monetary policy will also consider banking operating pressure. The deposit interest rate is unlikely to be significantly reduced, and further reduction will be more likely to be reduced.
Stabilizing the economy is to stabilize the enterprise
Under the epidemic, economic data was frozen in February, and the economic data in the first quarter fell to negative numbers to become the industry consensus.On the other hand, how long the downlink will last, how to deal with a lot of discussions.
The impact brought by the epidemic, whether for the United States and China, is mainly reflected in the prevention and control of the epidemic, which has caused a temporary suspension of economy, which has caused many companies to suddenly fall into trouble.In the face of this non -economic impact, neither of the large enterprises or SMEs are not ready. The chance of bankruptcy soared, driving the unemployment rate up.
The key to understanding the impact of the epidemic is that we must realize that this is an external impact and a one -time impact. It is different from the declining loop caused by the structural problem of the internal economic problem in 2008 or 1929.
In this case, the economy should adopt a rescue policy rather than a stimulus policy.Stabilizing the economy is to stabilize the enterprise MDASH; MDASH; the core of the policy should be a rescue enterprise.
Enterprises' rent, social security, and taxes and fees should be exempted when they are exempted, and they can be exempted.Some places have begun to explore.
A friend of me operated a hair salon at Lujiazui in Shanghai Financial Center, and the rent was expensive.During the epidemic period, it was basically stopped, and the business was stopped until mid -March.With a try mentality, he entrusted the manager to cry at the landlord's background of the state -owned enterprise. Mdash; mdash; he expected to obtain two weeks of rent for two weeks. As a result, he accidentally received the official letter from the landlord for two months.In this regard, my friends were almost ecstatic and rushed to tell each other, which can be said to be charcoal in the snow.
Similar situations are not a case.According to the information of the Shanghai State -owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, in accordance with the best knowledge and exemption requirements, as of March 8, Shanghai state -owned enterprises have accepted a total of 14,000 small and medium -sized enterprises for reduction and exemption, involving the rental area of 9.8 million square meters.About 1.2 billion yuan.
Similar measures, how to implement it, obviously require coordination in all aspects, which also reflects the level of government governance in different places.
Why emphasize rescue enterprises?Because enterprises are nodes and fulcrum of economic activities, all economic activities are implemented by enterprises; without enterprises, there will be no employment positions and future income flow, and there is no economic growth.Enterprises are not just a statistical unit, it is related to individual individuals, as well as family members behind them.
If the enterprise fails, there are countless employees and families behind the enterprises.
With the resumption of work in various places, the so -called retaliatory consumption expectations have not appeared.The reason is very simple. Chinese families have continued to add leverage over the years, even if six wallets are often empty.Not to mention, many soft -class families rely on salary input, and mortgage lives are relied on here.At present, the epidemic, the reduction of bonuses and salaries will be within the expected expectations.
Therefore, within a long period of time, companies will face the dilemma of shrinking demand or disappearing.At this time, the government is responsible for incomparable, and we should try their best to reduce various types of burdens for enterprises and create conditions for helping enterprises through difficulties.It must be understood that saving enterprises is to save the economy and save people's livelihood.
At the same time, the government also needs to expand various types of unemployment protection expenses in a timely manner to provide them with the most basic survival guarantee.In addition, sending some consumer coupons for families, doctors and other industries can also get some stimulating consumption effects.According to the official information of Hangzhou, on the evening of March 26, Hangzhou announced the issuance of 1.68 billion yuan in consumer coupons. It is reported that within two and a half days, the consumption has been driven by 453 million.
Global economy chess
The epidemic also allows us to reflect on the necessity of globalization.
The global economy is not a zero -sum game that you have more and less. The production and needs of various countries are closely related to overseas, and China is no exception.As a world factory, China has a continuous order from overseas markets, which has high importance to the Chinese economy.Overseas conditions directly affect China's exports, which can be said to be in a state of glory and glory.
The United States, the world economy, has become a earthquake.In March, the US market fluctuated, and the number of unemployed people soared to 3.3 million. Some analysts even pointed out that the impact on the US economic impact will exceed the 2008 financial crisis.These judgments are too early.
As I have previously said in the public account Xu Jin's economic man, the fundamentals of the United States are actually much healthy than in 2008. Fed Chairman Powell also pointed out that there is no fundamental problem in the US economy.In this way, there is no possibility of a financial crisis in the United States in 2008, not to mention the Great Depression in 1929.
It can be expected that with the stability of the epidemic, a new round of economy will begin.
The United States has launched a financial rescue plan of 220 million. The core is to save enterprises and Gu Min's livelihood;Britain also issued policies, such as individuals can receive a subsidy of up to 2,500 pounds, the government provides enterprises with 330 billion pounds of loans, and so on.The G20 summit on March 27 stated that it will start a total value of $ 5 trillion in economic plans to cope with the negative impact of the epidemic on global society, economy and finance, and support central banks from various countries to adopt measures to promote financial stability and financial stability andEnhance the liquidity of the global market.This is actually good news for China.
It can be expected that in the future, everyone will compete will be economic assistance.Copy homework, not shame.
This article only represents the author's own point of view, and it can be seen that the author's public account Xu Jin Economic Man (ID: Econhomo) and Xu Jin Finance (ID: Jinfinance)
