Source: Taiwan Economic Daily

The global new crown pneumonia has spread rapidly to Europe and the United States, and there have been more than 80,000 cases in the United States.Affected by the epidemic, the consumption of people in various countries has decreased significantly. The United States and Europe are the two largest consumer markets in the world. The global economy will be greatly affected in the next few months.At the end of February, the global economic growth rate forecast of the Economic Cooperation and Development Organization (OECD) has been reduced from 2.9%to 2.4%. If the epidemic is further expanding, the global economic growth rate will be only 1.5%.Unexpectedly, began in early March, the epidemic was extended from Europe to the United States. Recently, the international institution HIS has repaired the global economic growth rate from 2.5%to only 0.7%.

In the case of the expected epidemic that will continue and economic recession, the first thing that reflects is the stock market.The global stock market has collapsed in the past two weeks.The Dow Jones Index is particularly miserable. Not only did she plunge for many days in a row, but she also fell to many times.From the highest point of the Middle Dao Qiong Index in February, the maximum decline of this Bogo Daoqiong index exceeded 30%.When the stock price falls rapidly and exceeds a certain range, two effects will occur. One is the phenomenon of the buyer's broken. The stock must be sold faster, resulting in the market more killing and more.Another important impact is that many companies pledge financing from the stocks in their hands. After the stock price plummeted, the value of pledge is insufficient. Banks will ask for more collateral, otherwise the banks will be drawn to reduce the bank's might appear.Loss.This is where the stock price plummeted, which caused insufficient liquidity and interlocking.

U.S. President Trump started with the industrial without moving. For the situation where companies need banks to support cash flow, they should be very clear. Some people even doubt whether Trump's companies have also appeared in this wave of stock markets.question.In any case, the US Federal Reserve (FED) has a major action reduction and a loose monetary policy. Of course, it is hoping to provide more funds to banks and enterprises to spend this difficulty.

The Trump administration proposed about 2 trillion dollars to stimulate economic policies in the previous two days. FED also announced that it will adopt unlimited quantitative loose monetary policy. These unprecedented strong policy means shocked the world.Fed's previous two interest rate cuts have lowered the U.S. benchmark interest rate to a record low of nearly zero, but it is not enough, because companies are very urgent to need the support of mobile funds.

Although FED reduces interest rates to nearly zero, it should be limited to want to stimulate consumption. After all, the epidemic is tight. Even if the people have money in their hands, they don't dare to spend money.The more important thing should still be a loose monetary policy. Many companies now have a sharp shrinking turnover. Even if some companies with good operations are likely, they are likely to be unable to continue their operations due to lack of funds in the short term.The main role of loose monetary policy is to provide sufficient banks for banks to financing to enterprises, or at least not to collect umbrellas in rainy days.Especially for this epidemic, it may be long, and companies will need more funds to be small, so it is absolutely necessary to make a large amount of loose monetary policy for making a lot of money entering the market.

Some people may worry that too many currency supply may cause serious inflation problems, but the current problem is that people do not go out for consumption. Enterprises have no revenue at all, so it is unlikely that inflation problems will occur.We believe that in the current situation of economic emergencies, we should be able to increase currency supply, increase liquidity, and assist enterprises through difficulty.After the epidemic passes, after everyone starts consumption, the government can adopt the policy of tightening the currency to respond to possible inflation problems.

In the end, the epidemic in Taiwan is relatively mild, but the public is not enough to leave home, and the situation of consumption is still quite serious. Some companies have already closed or have no salary leave.According to the latest statistics of the Ministry of Labor, there are already 164 companies that have no paid leave so far so far, and the number has reached 4,808, and the number is 12 times the same period last year.And now it is only March. If you drag for another three months or longer, how many companies will think about the situation?How many people will there be unpaid leave?Or the person who was fired?It's really unimaginable!From this perspective, our central bank only reduces the benchmark interest rate of 1 yard, which is too conservative; the central bank should also carefully consider whether to adopt a loose monetary policy to ensure that the enterprise can get enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough funds to spend enough moneyDuring the economic depression at the end.