Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
On January 15 this year, the first phase of the US -China Economic and Trade Agreement was signed, and it took effect on February 15.Trump claims that this is a great agreement. Only the United States has the ability to make China a fan, comply with regulations that meet the interests of the United States, and increase their procurement for the United States.What's more important is that under the basis of the interests of the United States, China must be separated from the US supply chain, and countries must also choose the side stations. The United States and China have since decoupled.
The most proud of Trump is to completely block mainland China, from aircraft related to the defense industry to semiconductors of the manufacturing industry, and even connecting the two sides of the Pacific Ocean.in spite of.From trade to investing, under the leadership of Trump to eliminate China's participation, it has been widely supported by the American people; coupled with Trump from the impeachment case, in late February, the Gallop poll in late February, TrumpThe support has risen to 49%, which is a new high for taking office.
More importantly, the American people generally affirm the ability of Trump to deal with national policies, identify the direction of economic policies, and satisfy the economic situation. Most of them think that the economy will be better than now. This is the biggest capital for Trump for re -election.In contrast to the Democratic Party's primaries, Trump is full of confidence in re -election.
However, the good times are not very often. Due to the rapid spread of new crown pneumonia in the United States, Trump was too neglected in the early stage. It would not prevent migration overseas nor suppressing domestic transmission. He even boasted that no one in the United States was ill because of the new crown pneumonia.However, the U.S. epidemic is severe today. All 50 states have fallen. More than 46,000 people have been diagnosed, and the number of deaths exceeds 600.In particular, California, where Silicon Valley has the largest output value; and New York State in New York City, which includes the global financial center, has become the hardest hit area, which has impacted the US economy. The US stock market has fallen.The economic glory is almost disillusioned overnight.
The United States Federation has twice a significant rate of interest rates. The United States has entered the era of zero interest rates. However, the release of funds in the big hand is counterproductive, but the confidence of investors has further collapsed.However, Trump is still preparing to continue the banknote on the helicopter, which will be issued to the American people a $ 1,000 per person. It is planned to plan a $ 1 trillion aid plan, but it is too late.New crown pneumonians hit the US economy, and it has also ruined the consumption confidence of the American people. From the degree of collapse of the stock bond market, it is even higher than the 2008 financial turmoil. It can be seen that the US economy is suffering the biggest challenge in recent years.
Trump may never think that the United States, which is decoupled from China in production aspects of production, has fallen into new crown pneumonia without being able to get away. Although Trump defines the new crown pneumonia as a Chinese virus that triggers racial discrimination controversy, it is claimed that everything is because of China.It is harmed by China, but the American people do not seem to buy it.According to Gallop's polls in early March, Trump's support rate fell by 5 percentage points in less than half a month, only 44%; although the cohesion of voters supported by the Republican Party was still high, the middle voters were obviously lost. According to historical history, according to historyExperience, this support rate is not enough to win the presidential election.
Trump's biggest challenges in the future include effective control of the epidemic, rebuilding consumption confidence, and accelerating the economy.Other polls in the United States also show that most people believe that the epidemic has affected daily life, and the worst situation has not yet occurred, showing that there is still a gap at the current epidemic prevention policy.In addition, with the expansion of the epidemic in the future, the fluctuation of the stock market, bond market and the foreign exchange market will increase, and the impact on the economic will continue to deepen, further eroding Trump's support.
What is even more disadvantaged to Trump is that the American people's trust in local state government's ability to prevent epidemic prevention is much higher than the federal government with abundant resources; Trump must have a specific actions to win back to the American people's federal government and his individualsupport.
Under this wave of epidemic, the service industry that accounts for up to 80 % of the US GDP is seriously created. From catering, retail, hotels, transportation, financial insurance to the sports industry, not only does domestic consumption energy insufficient energy, but the policy of locking the country in various countries, and the economic suspension cannot be able to launch.Expand overseas markets.US folk consumption accounts for 70 % of GDP. In the future, only when the epidemic has slowed down, the financial market is stable, and the recovery of consumption confidence can they grow back to grow.But at present, Trump does not seem to have any good recipes; if the United States cannot be decoupled with the Chinese virus described by Trump, the economy cannot stop and rebound, and it will be Trump's biggest stumbling block.
