The partner's blatant wall is the enemy, of course, it is a big scene.Next, who can endure the declining oil prices of Saudi Arabia and Russia, it depends on the true home of both sides.
Zhang Rui
Creating the largest single -day decline since the financial crisis, the deepest single -day fell since the Bay War has been recorded, and more than 30%of the single -day epic plot has occurred. Since 2020, the international market has been cruelly beaten.Go to the cold floor.Behind the abrupt oil bear market, the pumped pH of the oil warfare smoke, and the bustling phantom of the oil price game channel through the bustling of the oil price game channel.
Based on the further slowing judgment of global economic growth in 2020, the International Energy Agency (IEA) at the beginning of the year, the growth rate of this year's crude oil market demand was reduced to 800,000 barrels per day, which is far lower than the daily average of 10 years.1.3 million barrels.
Chunjiang Water Warm Duck Prophet.OPEC+, member states, member states of Organizations (OPEC, referred to as oil alliances), and 10 countries, including ONEC, referred to as oil alliances), has responded in advance at the end of 2019 and reached the basis of reducing production in the early stage. Then, it has been reduced.Increase an agreement of 500,000 barrels to a daily reduction of 1.7 million barrels per day.From the perspective of OPEC+partners, such a large -scale active reduction should be able to form a lot of support for oil prices.
However, the sudden and spread to the global coronary virus disease epidemic, breaking the expectations of everyone on the crude oil market, IEA quickly issued an authoritative report of 360,000 barrels per day on the basis of the previous value on the basis of the previous value.Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil export country, is constantly convening an emergency rally of OPEC+member states. While proposed extension of the existing 1.7 million barrels of production daily to reduce the production plan to the end of this year, I hope to reduce the additional output 150 per day on this basisThousands of barrels.
Although in the new production reduction plan, the non -oil alliance producing oil countries have only one -third of the task of reducing production, Russia still resolutely refused with an unsatisfactory tone.The deepening of production reduction agreement was bleak, and the current production reduction agreement was extended to the end of this year's initiative. The price of crude oil in the international market subsequently made a thriller response from flying down.
Regarding Russia's back, Saudi Arabia then threw a reverse killer.On the one hand, Saudi Arabia has made a decision to significantly reduce market oil prices to market oil prices in Europe, Far East and the United States, and the discount range has set the highest level in nearly 20 years.On the other hand, with the largest state -owned oil company in the country, the world's largest crude oil exporter Saudi Arabia is a gun car. Saudi Arabia has launched a heavy artillery shell that has increased production capacity from 9.7 million barrels per day to 12 million barrels per day.
It is found that Saudi Oil has the largest selling among the European market, and Europe is exactly Russia's largest oil export position.The purpose of Saudi Arabia is very clear. Through epic price reduction promotions, it blocks Russia's European market's lifeblood, and then Russia has forced Russia to return to the negotiating table to rectify the pace of production reduction.
However, Russia will never simply admit it in front of Saudi Arabia.In the daily proposal of 1.5 million barrels of barrels of barrels per day, Russia is the non -oil alliance producing country with the most production reduction operations.Russia has the confidence that as long as it does not agree to reduce production, other non -oil alliance member states will never follow up; more importantly, in recent years, Russia has continuously built and expand energy output channels in many areas around the world, including it can reach European Europe.The state outputs 55 billion cubic meters of Beixi MDASH; 2 pipeline projects to consolidate and improve its share in the global energy market.In addition, Russia not only once stated that the policy orientation to increase market share through expansion of production, but this is undoubtedly withdrawn with the target of high returns with oil premiums such as Saudi Arabia and other oil alliances.
The partner's blatant wall is the enemy, of course, it is a big scene.Next, who can endure the declining oil prices of Saudi Arabia and Russia, it depends on the true home of both sides.Due to the increase in supply and the shrinking demand, international authoritative institutions such as IEA predict that this year's international market oil prices may fall to $ 35 per barrel, and even a pessimistic expectations of $ 20 per barrel.In this regard, Russian officials have patted their chests and told the outside world that they can withstand their crude oil prices as low as $ 25 per barrel.
Data show that Russia currently has 570 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves, ranking fourth in the world, and the size of foreign reserves exceeds the sovereign debt volume, and the proportion of debt accounts for only 16%, which is at the lowest level at the minimum of major countries.Similarly, Saudi Arabia also has more than $ 500 billion in foreign exchange reserves, ranking fifth in the world, and at the same time debt accounts for 25%, it is also low.
Saudi Arabia is afraid of insufficient stamina
That being the case, no matter whether it is Russia or Saudi Arabia, there is no reduction in financial accounts due to the decline in oil prices. As a result, the risk of breach of contract to damage its own reputation is equivalent to the tug -of -rushing capital of the two sides of the petroleum war.
However, comparing the overall financial situation, the strength of the two is clear.In recent years, in order to cope with the continuous decline in oil prices, Russia has continuously tightened fiscal and cut expenditures. Fiscal surplus accounted for 1.8%of the GDP, in a very safe area, and Russia still has a US $ 170 billion national wealth fund.At the same time, Russia has also been adjusted through industrial structure to continuously dilute the dependence of fiscal contribution to oil. Petroleum revenue has fallen below 50%of Russian fiscal revenue.
In contrast, Saudi countries, which have been losing money for four years, have not seen signs of improvement, and there are still nearly 100 billion US dollars of deficits on the book; and Saudi Arabia's oil revenue has contributed to 70%of the fiscal contribution, which is a typical oil finance.Therefore, according to Goldman Sachs's estimates, with the latest fiscal revenue and expenditure status in 2019, if the oil price is $ 51 per barrel, Russia can maintain a balancing of fiscal revenue and expenditure.Times.Obviously, Russia has more resistance to oil prices than Saudi Arabia.
Of course, while determining that Russia will not be easily softened to Saudi Arabia, Russia, which is passively involved in the oil war, has another very active appeal, that is, take the opportunity to suppress and annihilate the arrogance of shale oil and gas in the United States, maintain and consolidate the consolidation and consolidationYour global market share.At this point, Saudi Arabia and Russia have amazing demands, and the two may once again lift up their fists to the United States.
As early as 2014, in order to defeat the US shale oil company, the oil league -led by Saudi Arabia increased its production, which led to a lot of oil prices from the highest point, and finally reached the low point of $ 25 per barrel.However, this method of killing the enemy for one thousand self -damaging 800 still failed to stop the pace of the city's shale oil companies; on the contrary, these new oil and gas manufacturers relied on the strong financially built from the capital market financing.The confidence continues to collide horizontally.In desperation, the Oil Alliance threw olive branches to non -oil alliance members such as Russia and eventually formed OPEC+.
In the past four years, OPEC+has maintained the same -way gesture. The three -time production reduction agreement has also effectively held up the price of oil to the bottom of oil and maintains the weak balance of global crude oil supply and demand.However, the continuous reduction of production has also made American shale oil manufacturers take advantage of it, seizing a large number of market share.Data show that last year, US crude oil production set a record of 12.226 million barrels per day, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia, becoming the world's largest crude oil producer.According to IEA's forecast, the daily output of US crude oil this year is expected to reach 13.2 million barrels per day, and it has become a net oil exporter.
Although the proportion of U.S. oil in the global market is only 18%, and the proportion of OPEC over 40%is not small, any single economy cannot compete with the United States.Therefore, the combination of fighting against the United States to try to become the boss of oil exports in the world has become an unsteady choice for Saudi Arabia and Russia.
In fact, Russia has a stronger impulse to cut off and cut off American oil companies compared to Saudi Arabia.Since the beginning of this year, in addition to passing the stricter economic sanctions on Russia on the Syria issue, Trump will also be ObamaTimes will extend the commercial sanctions on Russia for one year due to Ukraine and Crimean.Not only that, because the shale gas in the United States is currently exported to more than 20 countries, it is limited to Latin America and parts of Asia, and because the price of Russia in the European market is significantly lower than the US natural gas, the United States has never been able to pry open the European market.Essence
As a kind of frustrated revenge, the United States has continued to stir the situation with Beixi MDASH; the 2 project has even proposed to be willing to pay for itself to provide the EU with $ 1 billion in energy project funding support to reduce the dependence of European countries to Russia's energy.In the end, Beixi MDASH, which was completed at the end of last year; the 2 project is still postponed.
As an active response to Saudi Arabia's upgrade of petroleum warfare, of course, it is also an arrow that indirectly shoots to American shale gas producers. Russia said that it is ready to increase the output by 500,000 barrels per day to make the domestic oil output reaches 1180 per dayThousands of barrels.This will be the highest level of the post -Soviet era.Compared with, it is found that Saudi crude oil mining costs are less than $ 10 per barrel. Russian oil mining costs are about $ 20 to $ 30 per barrel. The average cost of shale oil mining in US shale oil is $ 45 per barrel.
In other words, when oil prices begin to start at $ 30, Saudi Arabia and Russia are still busy counting money, but American shale oil dealers are asking for survival.
According to the current oil prices, in addition to the five shale oil producers such as Exxon Mobil and Western oil, more than 100 other American shale gas companies have been in a loser quagmire.If the price of oil continues in the future, the rock gas developer can only suspend production collectively.Because shale oil has contributed almost the entire increase in US crude oil, and at that time, whether the United States can be preserved as the world's largest crude oil producer, it tries to become the world's largest net oil exporter's dream, or it may be far away.
The author is a director of the Chinese Market Society
Professor of Economics at Guangdong University of Foreign Studies
Graduate mentor
