Han Yan

China's 2019 coronary virus epidemic has been diagnosed with the first patient in early December. It has been three months since it has experienced the slow response, the power of the mid -term, and the comprehensive attack in the later stage.The active change of the month continues to change in March.

Many people believe that the victory of the war epidemic seems to be close at hand based on personal judgments; at the national level, until March 9, the judgment of the current epidemic situation in the formal statement still adopts still complicated words.

What should I think of the current situation in China?We can judge from three perspectives.

From the perspective of data, at least the number of report cases in China has dropped to less than 10 people since February 27th. Among them, there are no local reports for three consecutive days from March 7th.The spread of spreading and the occasional outbreak to sporadic storms indicates that the local virus infection chain has been largely cut off; ultra -routine measures such as closing from the Chu Channel in the early stage and the reduction of the whole people have achieved practical results.

With the replacement of the chief official, relying on further compaction responsibilities, strengthening management and control, and increasing investment, the spread of the epidemic spread in Hubei Province and Wuhan City has also been controlled.The new confirmed cases in the city have also been reduced from March 6 to the double digits, which is likely to be related to the resolution of the stock.At the same time, in Wuhan, the contradiction between supply and demand of medical resources was significantly relieved. 14 square cabin hospitals that centralized mild disease and suspected cases were all closed on March 10. The remaining patients were transferred to professional designated hospitals for treatment.

From the perspective of time, it has been 45 days since Wuhan closed on January 23, and the end of the longest latent cycle of more than three 14 days of the longest 14 days, indicating that the risk of lurking infection is getting lower and lower.Although there are cases of non -symptom patients or cases of patients with long incubation periods, it does not seem to have universal significance at present; coupled with strict prevention and control measures in densely personnel areas, it has further reduced the risk of local epidemic rebound.

From an official perspective, not only the focus of work at the national level has begun in late February, and has shifted to coordinating the prevention and control of epidemic and economic and social development. Hubei, which is a severely affected area, also released on March 7th., And planning the signal of re -production resumers and in batches to promote the departure from the Han Dynasty in batches.In the notice issued by the Hubei Provincial Enterprise on March 8, it even put forward the specific date of re -work preparations to be completed on March 16. Although it was subsequently made, it should be more considered by public opinion.

At the same time, China's top leader has arrived in Wuhan on March 11 to investigate the epidemic prevention and control work.In China, which has political meanings at the highest level, the highest leaders come to Hubei in person, and the meaning of the judgment of the situation of the epidemic situation is even more prominent.

Various signs show that after a half -month -old hard work throughout the country, China's epidemic situation is transitioning from quantitative change to qualitative.

However, the continuous improvement of the local epidemic situation does not mean that the social order in China will be fully recovered.Under the disturbance of various factors and variables, it is not too optimistic, and it should not be completely victorious.There are three major factors that affect the comprehensive recovery of social order.

First of all, as far as the number is concerned, as of March 21, 5,549 cases of confirmed cases in China are still in the volume, of which 1,845 severe cases, and 118 suspected cases.People, subsequent medical and monitoring tasks are still heavy.

Secondly, we must also see that the significant results achieved at present are inseparable from a series of ultra -conventional prevention and control measures.It is a great test to gradually relieve these prevention and control measures and prevent the rebound of the epidemic.For cities with intensive and population liquidity in Beijing, strict restrictions will still be maintained in terms of returning to cities, re -production and resumption, and community entry and exit. The possibility of obvious loosening in the short term is relatively small.What's more vigilant is that the traceability work of the epidemic has not yet been completed, the middle host of the virus spread has not yet been found, and the uncertainty of the epidemic prevention and control still exists.

Third, the overseas epidemic situation is very severe.Because many countries have been restricted by factors such as the political system, governance model, and social and cultural factors, it is difficult to adopt an ultra -conventional measure to prove effective in China.This makes the epidemic spread outside China, and it is difficult to curb in the short term.As long as the overseas epidemic situation is unstable, the pressure on China's prevention of the epidemic will continue to exist, and the intensity of measures such as port control and control will be difficult to reduce.

Comprehensive research and judgment, although the dawn of victory has appeared, the risk of prevention and control of China's epidemic still exists. It still takes a period of time to recover the comprehensive recovery of normal social order. Especially in Beijing, whether it is technical or political considerations, I am afraid that it will be the last last.A group of cities that lift the main restrictions.

The author is a practitioner in the Chinese financial industry