This world was already chaotic, but no one expected that in the meditation, the 2019 coronary virus disease that has no class, politics, regardless of the country, and everyone is killed.Chaos, frequent risk.When God was shaking, he hit his waist again.
Facing the global flood of the crown disease, what can non -medical people know and predict?In fact, the popularity and prevention of plague are not just medical issues, but also political and economic issues.Putting the basic cognition of the professionals into the global chain can deduct the possible trend and situation of the global epidemic.This analysis and prediction have nothing to do with medicine.
This article is my point of view more than a month ago. Now the situation in Europe and the United States has strengthened my view.
Conflict between the annihilation war and lasting war
The crown disease has spread to Europe and the United States on a large scale, becoming a global plague.The World Health Organization has raised the global risk level of the epidemic to a very high level, and has recently listed as a global popularity.Italy, Iran, Germany and other countries have severe epidemic situation.The United States has also announced that it is forbidden to travel in Europe for a month.On March 13, US President Trump announced that the United States had entered an emergency and took out $ 50 billion (about 72.3 billion yuan) to resist.
Since the development of the epidemic, some things have been clear, such as the prevention and control strategy of various countries and their relationships.The so -called anti -epidemic strategies of various countries are attributed to two categories: annihilation and long -lasting war.Many people think that these two strategies are good.In fact, many people do not realize that although they are in isolated, the two strategies have their own advantages and disadvantages, but in a systematic perspective, in the context of globalization, these two strategies conflict with each other and will definitely cause global risks.Understanding the logical relationship of these two strategies will be easier to predict the macro trend of the epidemic.
The annihilation war is represented by the current China and Italy. The main measures are to block the borders, regional borders, and cities, prohibit clustering activities.The long -term war is represented by the current Germany and Britain, limited restrictions but incomplete aggregate activities, non -stop work and suspension, minor illness and medical treatment, and attach importance to intensive treatment.The purpose of annihilation of the war is to complete its work and completely eliminate the virus. The cost of its unit time is very high, so it is impossible to implement it for a long time and make a quick decision.
The lasting war is not the case. It uses the low mortality rate of the virus to try to coexist with the virus. It advocates that the people consciously resist the disease and try to achieve group immunity.The bet below it is: there are many mildness, there are very few severe illnesses, and there will be no medical resource crowding and causeing social riots.But this is a gambling.Who can guarantee that there are less severe illness?Who can guarantee that the public obediently arranges and follows order?
The most important measure for preventing and controlling infectious diseases is to be isolated. This is common sense.In the case where traditional social space is easy to isolate, the strategy of annihilation war is correct.However, the annihilation war must be effective, and three conditions must be met at the same time.First, space must be limited to a specific area, such as one country or one province.Second, there are conditions for inside and outside the isolated area, and the cost generated by isolation within and outside the area.In an open and flowing space, it is impossible to effectively work.Third, there is no external input.Only at the same time to meet these three conditions, can the annihilation war in a specific area may work.If the space isolates the virus, it is even more troublesome.
Both strategies have weaknesses, but this is not the worst.The worst is that the two strategies conflict with each other.The third condition that the annihilation strategy is effective is precisely conflicting with the long -lasting war strategy.The long -lasting war is to coexist with the virus, which means that there is a virus outside the annihilation of the theater.In traditional society, because the industrial chain in each region is very simple, the dependence between regions is very low, and the social flow is small, the annihilation of the inside and outside areas can withstand long -term isolation.
However, in the era of globalization today, the industrial chain of various regions is closely related, and the degree of dependence is very high. The social flow is very large.If the annihilation of the theater has to communicate with the durable theater, even if the former has annihilated the virus, the virus will be introduced again from the latter.When the annihilation area is unable to bear the huge annihilation cost, it can only give up the annihilation war, and also choose a long -term war to coexist with the virus.Of course, if the god soldiers can destroy the virus in the summer, the god soldiers can destroy the virus.But analysis and solving the problem, you can't expect luck.
How long can various countries carry
In terms of Italy, how long can its annihilation battle be carried?I deeply doubt.The Italian country is small, the industry chain is very incomplete, and many things need to be imported.Can it long abandon the power of power like Germany for a long time?cannot.Can you persist in isolating all people from abroad for a long time?No, because the cost is too great.During the epidemic, those who need cross -border exchanges are generally not tourists, but labor, business, and civil servants.After 14 days of isolation, many other businesses have long been yellow except for labor.
Relatively speaking, China's situation is better.First, China's industrial chain is complete, especially in the middle and low -end industries and domestic supplies industries. China is rich.Second, China's social mobilization ability is strong, or the people are still obedient.Third, the savings rate of Chinese residents is relatively high, which can support a longer life.In the worst case, sacrificing some economic growth and ensuring basic lives, China's conditions are better than small and medium -sized countries.
Therefore, some people believe that as long as China closed the door to fight the annihilation and control, China won, and it is safe to return to normal.It is actually difficult to be so optimistic.After the outbreak of Japan and South Korea, the surrounding epidemic environment worsen rapidly.China defends Wuhan and Hubei with the strength of the country, and thus defending the nationwide and all over the world.
Today, Europe and the United States have also fallen. If they entered the long -lasting war, China ’s annihilation strategy is even more tested.Can China bear a significant reduction in developing countries such as the United States, Germany, Britain, Japan, and South Korea?Can we insist on having a 14 -day measure for overseas personnel?I'm afraid it's difficult.Therefore, China must make a plan.How long can I fight for the annihilation war?What is the cost and consequences if it turns into a long -lasting war?All must be planned.
Looking at the impact of the epidemic on the industrial chain, you can know the huge cost of epidemic prevention, especially the annihilation war.The proportion of the tertiary industries in the United States is very large, exceeding 80%; China's tertiary industry has also increased significantly in recent years, and in 2019, it accounts for 53.9%of GDP (GDP).The biggest impact of epidemic prevention is the tertiary industry.The tourism industry is almost zero; the aviation industry has a serious loss. In February this year, the Chinese aviation industry lost 24.59 billion yuan (about S $ 5 billion); the catering industry greatly shrank.
Take Chengdu as an example.Chengdu and Sichuan are relatively safe. Go to restaurants for dinner and take basic protection measures. The probability of infection is less likely to have a major car accident.At the same time, relevant departments actively promote the opening of restaurants.However, the people dare not get off the restaurant, restaurant Menke Ronalt.It can be said that some industries have been broken.This fracture effect will be transmitted in the industrial chain, affecting the entire economic system, and then affecting the social system.
If most countries fight for a long time, they will be unfair to annihilate countries.First, the long -lasting war country originally wanted to coexist with the virus, so it was not afraid that the virus in the country was infected with the virus of the country, but the country was afraid of the virus of the country in the long -term war.This leads to a second. The long -lasting war country does not need to be defense, and the long -lasting war countries can communicate normally. The existing industrial chain between them will not only be interrupted, but also can be strengthened.
However, the country must be defensive everywhere, and it cannot communicate normally with all countries, so its international transaction cost is much larger than that of a long -lasting war.Therefore, compared with the global system, the damage to the destroy of the country is more serious.In the long run, the country of worshiping the war cannot persist, and may turn to a long -lasting war. The world may become a pot of soup. Most people are infected, but they are just one after another, such as the promotion of waves.
If Europe and the United States are out of control and move towards a long -term war, the European and American economy and exchanges can be carried out normally, but China and Europe and the United States cannot communicate normally. Persons from Europe and the United States to China must be isolated for 14 days to generate huge transaction costs.For Europe and the United States, they all only damage one side, that is, damagedIt is just European -China interaction or the United States and China. For China, it is damaged on both sides, and at the same time damage the exchanges between China and the United States and China and the United States. The damage is obviously greater.
Global systemic risk and historical change
The plague is different from other disasters.Most other disasters are one -time, and the duration is short, such as earthquakes and tsunami.Even in the disaster, people can actively act.However, the destruction of the plague lies not only to the harm to the body, but also the obstacle to behavior. It hinders people to repair the damaged social life chain.The direct destruction of the plague is that native disasters are usually long -term, and few months, let alone the secondary disaster.
The plague is different from war.War can distinguish between the enemy and me, and the plague does not distinguish between me.In this global global village, no country can be alone.The first important thing is strategic coordination and planning for planning, followed by mutual assistance of material and human resources.Originally, countries should consult and coordinate, seek coordinated resistance strategies, and avoid strategic conflicts.However, each country is a political failure, which will inevitably lead to the overall failure of global epidemic prevention and immune.
In the next few weeks, the evolution of the U.S. and European epidemic will determine the global territory and trend of the epidemic.From the current situation and trend, the situation is difficult to optimistic, and deterioration is almost inevitable.Many countries will be crowded in medical resources, that is, the broken medical chain, coupled with the break and hitting of other industries, transmitted to the entire industrial chain, causing social system disorder to be a high probability event.At that time, the disorders of a country, especially the great powers, will be transmitted to other countries, and the world will face systemic risks.
Historically, it is not uncommon to change history due to plague.The rewriting of the coronal virus to history is not about to happen, but it is happening.History has been changed by coronal virus and will continue to change.Many people are predicting the future, but it is certain that the vast majority of predictions before January 2020 are as large as the national affairs and personal affairs, and they are all invalid.Because no one can predict the popularity of coronary virus and incorporate this huge variable into consideration.
At the moment when countries are governed, the destructiveness of this plague may be unprecedented.Not only will the history of some countries be rewritten, but the game between countries will also change.Even if some great powers are disposed of being unjust, such as the epidemic intensify internal contradictions, it will lead to geopolitical changes.As for the ending, it is not better than anyone, but not worse than anyone else.In this sense, whether or not it should, or not, or not, in the era of globalization, human beings are in fact the community of destiny.In Mao Zedong's words, Universal is the same as this cool heat.
(The author is a professor and doctoral supervisor at the School of International Relations of Sichuan University)
