Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
The crown disease caused the collapse of the global stock bond market, and the economic impact gradually emerged.However, the current economic impact is directly proportional to the time and measures of the epidemic. In terms of nature, it is a short -term impact that will eventually subspenically. In addition, the fundamental fundamentals of Taiwan are still good, and the impact may be limited.However, the potential long -term risks such as globalization and retrogression and economic and trade integration cannot be ignored.
The U.S. Treasury Ministry of Finance was low -key last Tuesday that more than 20 products from mainland China, including personal medical protective gear, goggles, and disinfection gloves, temporarily suspended 7.5%additional tariffs levied by the trade war.This move is obviously to reduce import obstacles and costs due to the needs of the epidemic that is getting out of control.However, since the tariffs are imposed in September last year, the trade structure has begun to change. Chinese products have gradually been exported to the United States, and they are replaced by products from Malaysia, Mexico and Taiwan (mainly goggles).
After nearly half a year of adjustment, the Chinese operators who have lost may have developed other markets. Even if the United States suspends sanctions, it is not easy to return to the United States in a short period of time. Besides, the tariffs are just suspended until the end of this year instead of suspension.On the other hand, the demand for these medical equipment and utensils around the world has increased. Even if the export ban has not been implemented, the supply and demand is distorted and unbalanced. The United States will face high challenges to increase the inducement of temporary exemption tariffs.
The situation in the United States is of course self -founding, but it means that Trump will re -support the globalization and abandon the trade war.The reflection that has stirred up in a comprehensive outbreak of the new crown pneumonia is a mechanism of how to establish such public health security after energy and food safety.After the globalization of interoperability, the benefits are high, but it also makes the global epidemic and the incidence of imbalances in supply and demand for key products.At present, countries are used to seal the city, lock countries, and prohibit exports to respond. Although the outbreaks cannot abandon and strengthen cooperation in the field of public health, I am afraid that their own country will have their own thinking.Regarding the economic and trade field, thinking that public health products have self -sufficiency, the establishment of reliable supply chain, and the risks of decentralized supply chain are actually possible to accelerate the margin -election process of the trade war, which is not conducive to globalization.
In addition, the disaster differences in various countries have caused differentacious countermeasures to different countries. Although it is necessary, it is necessary differential treatment, but once the necessary scope and necessary time are crossed, it will become discrimination.Coupled with the mutual accusation of each other, the power of the great power is the source of all evils, and it is also a variable that is not conducive to globalization.
The second has a more affected impact with Taiwan, which comes from the problems caused by the people's sense of distrust in the field of international public health and even food security.In 2019, there are more than 9 million people on both sides of the strait light. If this point is included in this point, the Taiwan epidemic prevention results can definitely be used as a global model.However, such excellent results, although showing Taiwan's public health energy and the success of advance deployment, may also have side effects.
Although the epidemic prevention and control of the strain energy and effectiveness are related to the historical experience and customs culture of various countries, this epidemic has undoubtedly revealed the weakness and problems of the global public health security system.Not only in Taiwan, many countries have appeared in question and challenges to the professionalism and credibility of WHO (WHO), and they are also surprised by the obvious failure of Japanese, South Korea, and the United States.The judgment of international organizations such as WHO and other international organizations also lacked the advanced image of Japan, South Korea, and the United States.
Such cognitive impact is unpredictable.For example, in the field of economy and trade, it may not be conducive to Taiwan's two key issues two key issues in the future of Japanese food and American pigs.Although Japanese food and American pigs have nothing to do with new crown pneumonia, the lack of (or misunderstandings) of the international organizations and the security system of Japanese and US -US public health is easily spreading due to the epidemic.
Therefore, if Taiwan has always been immersed in the unique global atmosphere, accepting the demands of international food security standards and believing in the United States and daily inspection of energy may be more difficult to persuade the public to accept it.In this way, of course, it is not conducive to Taiwan's efforts to join for regional integration or Taiwan -US relations.
The epidemic will eventually pass.According to the thinking of pre -deployment, we should start thinking about the problem of deeper difficulties such as globalization backstream and obstructing economic and trade integration.
