On March 13, President Trump, the United States announced that the United States entered a state of emergency state in response to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and the federal government will start a $ 50 billion emergency capital reserve for states to respond to the new crown pneumonia.Response the emergency command center of the new crown pneumonia.U.S. stocks rose sharply, and the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq index increased by more than 9%.On the same day, the European stock market also rose overall.
However, we believe that when the victory of the resistance and resistance is not yet known, because of the global epidemic prevention and control situation, it has unknowingly changed.
The recent European epidemic prevention and control intended to establish national immunity.On March 12, Sweden officially decided to stop the statistics of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia, and no longer detect mild patients and suspected patients.This means that Sweden will lose epidemic tracking of potential cases of the new crown epidemic.Subsequently, on March 13, the British official stated that the government's goal was to delay the peak of the new crown epidemic and allow people to produce group immunity.At the same time, German officials also stated that 60%-70%of people in Germany will infect new coronal viruses and will fight the virus for a longer period of time.French officials also stated that it is necessary to curb the virus, but at the same time, it is necessary to manage the influence of epidemic diseases to maintain the social and economic life of the country.
It is not difficult to see that the idea of preventing and controlling the epidemic in Europe is completely different from China.If China ’s large -scale isolation and national aid are a battle, then European anti -immunity is more like a long -lasting war.European anti -epidemic strategy is to treat severe illnesses and stop mild detection. The goal is to establish immunity for the whole people.
At present, the United States is a war, but it may have to evolve into a long -lasting war.On March 11, the United States announced that it would suspend all travel departing from Europe within 30 days.However, the navigation ban has a huge impact on economic activities, which can be seen from the subsequent settlement of the European stock market.Therefore, we judge that the US -Europe Navigation ban should only be temporary. The United States has been difficult to bear this economic pressure for a long time, especially for the entire European navigation.
As long as Europe is a long -lasting war, it may eventually drag all countries into the water.If the United States is not the year of election this year, it may be consistent with the European pace and adopt a long -lasting war.There are different methods of resistance to diseases in various countries. It not only has the consideration of institutional culture, but also to a large amount of economic affordability, especially for European and American countries with a low savings rate.It can be said that the physical damage of the people for a long time and the higher economic cost of war.
China will face a dilemma to prevent navigation from affecting the economy and letting navigation affect prevention and control.The conflict of prevention and control thinking will cause a very serious problem. If China does not issue a navigation ban, then China's input cases will continue, and China may have to fall into a long -lasting battle.If China issues a navigation ban, the impact on the economic impact on the economy will continue until the development of vaccines and special effects drugs is successful.
The long -term battle of global epidemic prevention and control will also drag out the total demand.Against the epidemic in a long -term warfare, it will not only seriously test the affordability of the medical system of various countries, but also greatly extend the time of the dissemination of the epidemic, which will continue to affect the total global needs.
Therefore, we need to make a second impact on the new crown epidemic and prepare early.Falling in a long -lasting war means that the war -type epidemic prevention and control that China had previously done was faced with huge challenges.The dissemination time and breadth of the overseas epidemic will exceed expectations. Whether it is China's own overall needs or overseas demand, it is expected that it is difficult to avoid significant declines for a long time, which may make the downward pressure of our economy greater than expected.Of course, the warmth of the weather has created favorable conditions for the prevention and control of the epidemic, and also won valuable time for the development of special effects and vaccines.
Therefore, we need to think about how long the second impact may last, and we may have to adjust the economic and industry development judgments that have been made under the assumptions of the impact, and obtain opportunities and challenges.The government's macro -hedging policy also requires strictly.The prevention and control of the new coronal virus is worldwide. Only global victory can be said to be a victory, because everyone is on the earth.
