Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Because the Oil State Organization and Russia and other partnerships (OPEC+) On the 6th, the Ministerial Meeting negotiated and broke the bureau, and the production of oil prices fell nearly 10%on the same day; Saudi Arabia decided to greatly reduce officials from Asia, Europe, and the United States from April on weekends.The price of oil is sale and will gradually increase production, which means that the international oil price war will be fully launched, so the oil price has dropped more than 25%on the 9th, approaching $ 30 per barrel, and then the decline will be slightly reduced.Compared with the level of nearly 70 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of this year, the decline has been more than half, which fully meet the standards of the short market.Is the oil price under this rivers and rivers?
To explore the trend of oil prices, of course, it depends on the supply and demand. In this wave of declines, the supply and need obviously have encountered major negatives.In demand, due to the spread of new crown pneumonia, the supply chain is broken, the factory stops production, aircraft flights are canceled, and the public is unwilling to go out. The willingness to consume is low, so that both crude oil demand of fuel and petrochemical will be reduced.
Looking at the decline, the oil -producing country naturally wants to adjust the supply, that is, the production price reduction.According to the current OPEC+production reduction agreement, a total of 2.1 million barrels are reduced daily, and the validity period is deadline until the end of March.In order to respond to the disadvantage of demand, the Middle East oil-producing country headed by Saudi Arabia suggested that the current agreement will be extended to the end of this year, and it will be reduced by 1.5 million barrels per day during the off-season in April to June. As a result, Russia refuses to negotiate negotiations.Breaking the situation; as far as the influence, not only OPEC+will not expand production, but even the original production reduction agreement will end at the end of March. All participating countries will be free to produce from April. Of course, the situation is of course serious; coupled with the Saudi country decided to increase productionIt is not surprising that the price of oil is reduced.
In fact, in the past year, international oil prices have clearly showed a tone that is easy to fall.In April last year, the United States expanded sanctions on Iranian oil exports. In September, the oil treatment facilities of Sands were attacked. In January of this year, the senior Iranian general was killed by the U.S. military drone.It fell around $ 50-55.The reason is at least three.First, global environmental awareness has risen, especially for climate change, which has formed a consensus on reducing the consumption of fuel and other fuel, and has begun to gradually implement; second, the global prosperity is weak, which slows down with the growth of oil demand with economic growth and naturally increases.Third, the output of US shale oil has increased, which has transformed the United States from the second largest crude oil importer to self -sufficient. Once the oil price rises, it will increase production immediately.Because oil prices are facing a strong structure and fundamentals, even if the geographical conflict has increased sharply, it will rise quickly.
Looking forward to the market outlook of oil prices, the biggest uncertain factors are the development of new crown pneumonia.Because the epidemic is unlikely to obtain effective control in the short term, it is not easy to demand; coupled with the end of the production reduction agreement, the output of OPEC+will be easily increased and difficult to decrease.EssenceOnce the epidemic spreads again, it is difficult to become the final line of defense at $ 30 per barrel.
However, supply and demand will affect prices, and prices will also affect supply and demand.After all, oil prices are just means instead of purpose.The Sha Guo threatened to increase production and hit a shocking strategy. He hopes that with the fastest action, it will cause the greatest pain to Russia and other oil -producing countries, so as to pull the countries back to the negotiating table and then resume production.Moreover, although the production reduction agreement is over, the output of OPEC+will not increase to the level before production, because most OPEC+countries are currently close to all -around production. Only Sands can increase production by more than 1 million barrels per day.More than 100,000 barrels, so the supply is not too much; and after the oil prices are heavy, the American shale oil industry will automatically reduce production. At the same time, after entering the summer, the demand for crude oil will also rise.With these supporting factors, oil prices will not be under the rivers and rivers during the middle period, and the price of $ 50 per barrel should be a balanced price.
As for the long period of time, the trend of oil prices is still easy to fall. This is mainly dominated by fundamental and structural factors, because the proportion of oil supply to global energy supply has continued to decline.Can't return.Oil producing countries are reduced, and geopolitical conflicts will only temporarily encourage oil prices to rise, and it is impossible to maintain high oil prices.The short -term turbulence, the long -term slowdown pattern has been determined.Regardless of the reduction of production and premiums or increasing production, all kinds of strategic operations will eventually be futile.Oil prices have fallen, inflation pressure has decreased, and the disposable income is improved, which is also a great gospel for domestic economy and consumers.
