Economic Daily News
The United States and China began to consult after the trade war in July last year. It took nearly a year and a half. It finally completed the first phase of the trade agreement on December 13 this year. It is expected to be signed in January next year.The United States suspended the fourth increase of tariff operations that was originally scheduled to be launched on the 15th, and of course China also suspended the set of revenge; tariffs imported by US $ 200 billion in smart watches in September were reduced from 15%to 7.5%.The other than $ 250 billion of the 25%tariff part is unchanged.China will expand the import of imports of American agricultural products, expand the opening of financial markets, increase the protection of intellectual wealth, and transparent exchange rate policies.U.S. President Trump immediately issued a post to invite merit, saying that he would conduct a second -stage consultation as soon as possible.
For more than a year, world trade has been significantly affected by the US -China trade war.Japan Economic News has analyzed several major changes. First of all, the trade of soybeans. China imported 90 million tons of soybean a year, the largest importer in the world, one -third of which came from the United States.After the war of trade, a 25%retaliatory tariff on the United States levied the US levy, which reduced the import volume from the United States in 2018.The soybeans exported from Brazil to China from Brazil increased from Brazil last four months last year, becoming 2.5 times the same period of the previous year; because China has changed the source of imports, it has grown 30 % of imports from Brazil.It turned out that 60 % of the US soybean exports came to China. Under the trade war, they had to find another way to transfer to Asian countries such as the European Union and Thailand.
Similar situations also appear in energy trade.After the United States, after the shale revolution, the production of natural gas and exports increased in liquefied natural gas.However, after the 10%tariffs imposed by China in September last year, the export of China's exports changed six times compared with 2016, the reversal declined by 10%.China changes the source of imports to Australia, and the Australian government estimates that the 2018 fiscal exports will grow more than 20 %.China has also signed a 22 -year liquefied natural gas contract with Kada, scattered from imports from the United States.
In addition, the United States has greatly increased tariffs on steel and aluminum products, which reduces US imports by 10 %; the influential China and South Korea's steel industry have shifted to Asia exports, South Korea turned to India, and China turned to Japan.The export of aluminum products in the United States has also shifted to Japan, with a great increase of 30 %.However, these export adjustments cannot completely make up for the reduction of exports to the United States.Moreover, suddenly turning to find new buyers must be reduced in order to sell, so the exports and prices of these countries will decline, all of which become victims of the US -China trade war.
However, if the trade war is successful, will the original trade relationship be restored?This is difficult to have clear answers, depending on what extent the negotiations are successful and what tariffs are.For example, the signing of the United States and China at this stage does not increase tariffs without additional tariffs. The tariffs imposed on the original increase are only partially reduced. It is relatively limited to restore the original state.In addition, the characteristics of different products are different. Some adjustment of production and trade is easier, and some are relatively difficult.Take agricultural products such as soybean as an example. For a long time, it takes a long time to sign a long -term contract, and the number of buyers will increase significantly. It will also reduce the price due to the scale economy. Therefore, it is relatively difficult to restore the original state.However, it is easier for industrial products such as automobiles or semiconductors, and resource products are the easiest to adjust trade relations.
Gordine, Chief Economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in October that 90%of the global economies and regions have slowed down; if the risk of ground administration continues to increase, the world economy will be close to depression.She predicts that the world economy will recover slowly, but the risks are still there, including the British without agreeing to Brexit, and there is no room for making mistakes in the policy.The IMF has predicted 3%of the global growth rate this year in the fifth consecutive quarter, but if the trade war intensifies and cause financial contraction, the growth rate will drop to 2.5%.
Therefore, the impact of the US -China trade war on the global economy is extensive, deep and complicated. Of course, the early reaching an agreement is expected by countries.However, the situation may not be optimistic: the second phase of negotiations involve the industrial policy that China is regarded as sovereignty, etc., which will be related to the US strategy and tactics of the United States, and will also affect future global trade and development.
It can be certain that the world economy has completely changed due to the trade war; whether the Xunxione trap, which is struggling with the strengths of the two, can cross as soon as possible, involving the United States will tolerate a power of Pacific and West each.If Taiwan wants to be stained with both market systems, the government and enterprises must have more flexible figures and flexible wrists in order to find their vitality in the two major systems that are both split and cooperative.
