Shen Jianguang: The Sino -U.S. Trade War was pressed on the pause button.The outside world responded to half, and there was no shortage of pessimistic critical arguments.This is the significance of the agreement on the agreement between China and the United States and even the world economy.

On December 13, China and the United States have stated that they have reached a consensus on the first phase of the economic and trade agreement text.Based on the statement of the two countries, the tariffs of China's transmission and US commodities, which were originally scheduled to be raised on December 15, were suspended. In October, the tariff rate imposed by about $ 120 billion in goods will be halved. China will increase the purchasing efforts of self -American agricultural products.EssenceThe agreement will also include intellectual property, technical transfer, financial services, exchange rates, and dispute resolution.

The consensus between China and the United States marked the suspension key for the Sino -US trade war that had been upgraded quickly in the early stage.However, the author found that the outside world's reaction was half, and there was no shortage of pessimism and critical argument.The author believes that there are three major misunderstandings of these cognitions, which underestimates the significance of the agreement to China and the United States and even the world economy.Looking at the development direction of Sino -US relations correctly, the short -term perspective of zero -sum game should be avoided, focusing on China's long -term interests.

Misunderstanding 1: The economic and trade agreement still regrets it

Twenty -twists and turns through the Sino -US negotiations so far.On May 2, 2019, as Trump announced unilaterally to increase tariffs on 200 billion US dollars of goods in China, the original Sino -US negotiation situation suddenly changed.On August 1st, after the Twelfth round of the Sino -U.S., The Twelfth round of consultations promoted by the Osaka Conference, Trump also tariffs on 300 billion products in China.There are many views that, in view of the ups and downs of the previous ups and downs, whether China and the United States can finally sign the agreement are still uncertain, and the possibility of regret the last moment cannot be ruled out.

However, the author believes that the signing of the economic and trade agreement at this time is of great significance for both China and the United States. It should be believed in the sincerity of the two countries' signatures as soon as possible.For China, the trade war is exactly the biggest macro risk in the past two years. The reaching agreement is far from the continuous upgrade of the trade war without an agreement. In the situation of upgrading and alternating alternation, it is still evidence that the negotiation signal is still clearly clearing.The reduction in tariffs and ceasefire stages in stages eliminates at least a huge uncertainty to prevent Sino -US friction from slipping towards scientific and technological warfare, financial warfare and even ideological fields.

In the context of the third phase of the superposition that affects the continued deepening and the downward pressure on the economic downward, the recently held the Central Economic Work Conference mentioned once again, but the attitude of high -level high -levels still resolutely stimulates the economy by relaxing real estate.In the short term, China and the United States will undoubtedly prevent the scale of China's foreign trade shrinking and prevent the exterior of the external environment from being transmitted to production and employment. In the near future, whether it has caused extensive controversy in the near future, the necessity of using strong stimulus growth is greatly reduced.In the middle and long term, the environmental stability during the cushioning period is expected to restore corporate confidence and boost manufacturing investment that has been silent for a long time.

For the United States, the purchase of American agricultural products in China is a major benefit for Trump, which is re -elected for elections.The preliminary tariff war triggered China's retaliation to stop import, which caused a great negative impact on the exports of agricultural products in the United States. The US bean farmers suffered huge losses.Since July, Trump has repeatedly complained that China has not purchased American soybeans.The increase in the purchase of US soybeans and other agricultural products in China has always been Trump's re -election of the interests of the benefits of bean farmers in the central and western regions.

As the US election approaches, the economic card is also a trump card for Trump.Recently, the US consumption and employment data are strong, and the three major stock indexes have repeatedly reached high, becoming Trump's frequent exaggeration.Through the Sino -US Agreement in exchange for the stable economic environment of next year and boosting consumption and market confidence, Trump is also willing to see it.If the regeneration of economic and trade relations between China and the United States, Trump's time and economic costs will seriously affect his re -election prospects.

Misunderstanding 2: The US tariff reduction is small

One of the reasons for the market fluctuations on December 13 was that the US tariff reduction was small.The 25%tariffs imposed by the US $ 250 billion of Chinese goods have remained unchanged, and the market's estimated estimated tax rate will be reduced to 15%or 20%.Goldman Sachs, who had predicted that China and the United States could not be in the preface of the US election, even said that the US reduction in tariffs was only half of its benchmark prediction level.

In my opinion, the main reason below the market expectations is that the news of the favorable trade negotiations in November is frequent, which has led to high optimism.But in fact, many politicians in the United States believe that the rate of US tariffs is not too small but too large.For example, the minority leader of the United States Senate and Democrat Chars Bull; Shu Mo publicly criticized Trump to sell himself in order to make China a temporary and unreliable commitment to buy some soybeans;Ao Ze believes that it is not advisable to reach an agreement with China too quickly, and it should save tariff ammunition as a negotiating chip of institutional issues such as subsidies and market access.

Analysis of the US tariff list composition can find that the US tariff reduction on the 300 billion -product list is the most significant impact on Sino -US trade.According to the author's calculation of US trade data in 2017, 50 billion lists (25%of tariffs) US import dependence on China is 8%, and 200 billion lists of goods (plus 25%tariffs) dependence on China is 18.8%, 300 billion lists A product (increased on October 15, the tax rate has fallen by half to 7.5%) to China by 24%, 300 billion list B products (originally scheduled to be added on December 15th, it has been temporarily relieved) China) ChinaThe dependence is as high as 86%.Notebook computers, mobile phones, toys, and game consoles are all consumer products that the United States relies on China.

Since the outbreak of trade frictions, the US imports have shown a higher customs duty rate and the greater the import of imports. This is because of high tariffs to increase the cost of product costs and exceed importers.In Chinese goods, other countries cannot replace them in a short time.The tariffs on this part of this part of this commodity not only benefit American consumers and importers, but also prevent the Chinese industrial chain from being severely impacted for a long time, which constitutes a good favorable for both countries.

Misunderstanding 3: China excessive concessions

Some opinion believes that China has increased its imports, expanding intellectual property protection, curbing technology transfer, and open financial services.In particular, according to the U.S. Trade Representative Office (USTR) statement, China's self -American goods and service trade imports will increase 200 billion US dollars on the basis of 2017.According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs and the Ministry of Commerce, China imported US $ 153.9 billion from US commodities in 2017 and served US $ 87.08 billion.Assuming that the number of US $ 100 billion in imports every year, then China's import from the United States needs to increase by 40 % compared to 2017. Can the import commitment of this scale be digested?

I have three thoughts about this.The first is to increase the purchase of agricultural products in the United States. On the surface, it is the core demand of Trump, but in essence, expanding imports under the premise of ensuring the reasonable quality and price can increase the supply of agricultural products and restrain the price of food prices that have risen rapidly in the pig cycle this year.In addition, due to seasonal factors, the seasonal chronograph of planting crops in various countries has dislocated, and importing and expanding imports from the United States will also help strengthen the stability of the number of agricultural products and prices.

Second, other Chinese products and even service areas also have huge consumption potential.For example, in 2017, China imported from US $ 5.7 billion from the United States and refined oil, accounting for only 3%of all imports.The United States is already the world's largest crude oil producer, and its exports have steadily improved. Under the background of China's energy demand steadily, American crude oil has become one of the options for imports.And China's economy maintains medium and high -speed growth, and the income of residents has continued to increase. As the consumer structure is tilted from necessary consumer goods to optional consumer goods, from physical goods to services, Chinese residents' import demand for high -quality goods and services abroad is also increasing, expanding expansion, expandingImported to meet the requirements of releasing the demand for domestic market in the Central Economic Work Conference.

Third, the agreement is in line with the current tone of China's deepening reform and expanding the pace of opening up.The just -concluded Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that opening up to the outside world should continue to go in a larger, wider field, and deeper direction to promote the steady quality and quality of foreign trade.In China in 2019, the pace of opening up to the outside world has steadily accelerated. The China -US Agreement and the corresponding intellectual property protection and goldRong opening up and other content is actually the objective requirements of China's current development stage, which meets the interests of China.

In summary, the author believes that the first phase of the agreement has strongly rejected the Sino -US desult theory. Although there are many differences between the two countries, the differences should not be upgraded unlimitedly.Of course, the bilateral relations between China and the United States are by no means worry -free. Repeated twists and turns in the economic and trade situation of the two countries in the past year and a half, indicating that they should still be alert to the possibility of changes and twists and turns in the future.In the next step, in the case of clear demands between China and the United States, in the short term, the implementation of the first phase of the agreement should still be promoted to strive for a stable external environment.

Note: This article only represents the author's personal point of view