Where does Sino -US relations go?This is undoubtedly a question that the world has to face and answer.Dr. Kissinger issued the most severe warning so far on Sino -US relations twice, or that he said twice in the same warning.One was at the annual dinner at the National Committee of the United States and China Relations of New York; the other was at the new economic forum hosted by Bloomberg in Beijing.Kissinger emphasizes two related points: First, the United States and China walk at the foot of the mountains of the Cold War; second, once China and the United States conflict, it will destroy the two world war that has destroyed the European civilization.
Coincidentally, the New York Times published a signature article of Niall Ferguson, saying that the Cold War between China and the United States had begun in 2019.This is not the first time Ferguson expressed his views, and he has expressed this view many occasions.
Ferguson was the creator of the concept of Chimerica a few years ago. He used this concept to describe the highly dependent relationship between China and the United States. The implication is that China and the United States cannot have conflicts.But not long, Ferguson turned 180 degrees.In the United States and even the whole West, there are not a few people with such pessimism, but generally exist.Of course, in China, there are also many people holding this view, but it is not easy to express.
Three main traps of Sino -US relations
This view is not groundless; on the contrary, to a large extent, it is based on some experience observations.From the perspective of many people, since the outbreak of the Free Trade War, the three major traps of academic and policy circles have always been popular in Sino -US relations, and it seems to be on the stage one by one.The first is the THUCYDIDIDIDESS Trap, that is, it is believed that China will inevitably challenge the existing country in the United States; and the United States will inevitably be afraid of its own hegemonic position and war by China.
Although the Chinese side has always emphasized that China will not be dominated by the country, the United States' fear of China has become more and more apparent.Although not many people think that the United States is capable of blocking China today, China is also afraid of being blocked by the United States.This interaction between the two countries seems to have fallen into a vicious circle, and there are no signs that the two countries can escape this vicious circle.If so, the final conflict will be inevitable.
Furthermore, this malignant interaction between the two countries comes from the second trap, that is, the Tacitus trap, that is, between the two countries, whether it is official or folk, lacks basic trust.People noticed many problems in the trade war, but they could not be resolved because the two parties did not trust, not to be resolved.What's even worse is that the two sides, especially at the bureaucratic level, are emotional and lack of rationality on increasingly more and more issues.When the relationship between the two parties is dominated by emotions, it is difficult to communicate meaningful, and even without communication.Under such circumstances, the degree of trust cannot be talked about.
The third trap is the so -called Kindleberger Trap, thinking that the crisis in the world order today is not in the hegemony between China and the United States, but in that China and the United States cannot cooperate to provide adequate international public products to maintain international order.(International Public Goods).In some scholars' opinion, the United States and its allies are no longer able to provide enough international public products, but China may have no willingness, or they have not enough ability to replace the United States with such public products.
However, the problem is not the case.Under such a complicated international situation today, no country (whether it is the United States or China) is capable of providing public products needed by international order alone.As the two largest economies in the world, if China and the United States cannot cooperate, the lack of international public products is inevitable.
What's more serious is that China is not without willingness and ability to provide such public products; on the contrary, China has strong willingness and strong ability to do this. The problem is that whenever China does this (such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the BeltAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank) is regarded by the United States (and West) as a threat to existing international order.
The United States needs to provide international public products defined by the United States, provided by the United States in the US power structure.As a big country, China itself has its own understanding of international public products and its own method of providing. China cannot fully provide it in accordance with the definition and regulations of the United States.This difference not only hinders the cooperation between China and the United States in maintaining world order, it is easier to guide the conflict between the two.This difference can be attributed to the lack of basic trust between the two countries.
No matter what kind of trap people depict today's Sino -US relations, it is essentially pointing to the increasingly worse bilateral relations and its impact on the entire international relations pattern.The trade war between the two countries was obviously not a real trade friction, but it quickly extended from the field of trading to other fields, including technology, military, and ideological.
The criticism, attacks, and even demonization of China in all aspects of the United States have reached an unprecedented level. Whether in Hong Kong or on Xinjiang, the United States is omnipotent.It is foreseeable that the United States will also create new problems in many other aspects, such as Taiwan and South China.The United States not only does this, but also requires allies to stand with it to deal with China.Therefore, some people claim that NATO has found the direction again because of China.Naturally, NATO is just one of them.
How to develop Sino -US relations
U.S. officials have already emphasized that cope with China must be the whole government and the whole society, and through the alliance strategy, the United States intends to cope with China worldwide.Since the end of the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union, because there is no common enemy, the relationship between the United States and its alliances does lose the direction, but if the United States wants to strengthen China as an enemy and strengthen the relationship with its alliance again.Falling into the logic of World War I and World War II again.
Once a conflict between China and the United States, as Dr. Kissinger said, the result will be worse than World War I and World War II, and the world will suffer.World War I and World War II originated in Europe, and the main battlefield was also in Europe. However, the influence of China and the United States today has spread throughout the world. The impact of conflicts between the two countries will inevitably be worldwide.Not many people will doubt this.In fact, so far, although there is no comprehensive trade war between the two countries, more and more countries have been deeply affected by the trade war.
However, no matter how Sino -US relations develop, three points are very clear.First, internal contradictions in the United States (or Western) not only cannot solve their internal problems, but also deepen and deteriorate these problems.The United States claims that Western freedom and democracy have been influenced by the authoritarian system from China and even threatened, but this is just a manifestation of confidence in the United States because of many severe problems in China.In fact, there are not many Americans who think so, except those who are ideologically prejudiced.
The threats suffered by Western freedom and democracy come from the West, not external.Economically, it is an inevitable product of the capitalist market economy.The industrial economy of the Fortune Factory era helped the United States to transform the working class into a huge middle class. This middle class is the product of the United States' democracy and stability.Today, the knowledge economy marked by Apple mobile phone has caused the high degree of inequality of the internal income distribution of the United States and the high degree of socialization of society. The society has lost LaiWith the basic social justice of survival.Even more severe, the middle class has been greatly reduced, and populism rises.
The changes in economic and social structure have deeply affected American politics.With the atrophy of the middle class, the political foundation of the two parties has lost its stable social foundation.In the past, a huge middle class served as a social foundation for the consensus between the two parties, because no matter which political party, if you want to govern, you must take care of the interests of the middle class.At present, when the production is less than half of the production, the social differentiation is increasing, and the social foundation of the two parties consensus is no longer.Popularity is fragmented, and various forms of populism rose naturally.
A direct result of the party's struggle is that a effective government cannot be formed.When a society is facing such a serious socio -economic problem, the effective government becomes very important.The changes in the social and economic structure, or the imbalance of economic structure, can be said to be the product of market failure.When the market fails, the government must make a difference, but the party's dispute means that the impossible government is impossible, which means the government's failure.In the case of double failure of the market and the government, the situation in the United States (and the West) will only continue to deteriorate.
No one will think that the United States can solve the social, economic and political problems it faces through internal contradictions.Historically, Western countries do often pass on internal contradictions to the international community, but the result of each passing is the war between countries; war between countries has led to the destruction of each other. After the destruction of each other, it is the rebuilding of countries.However, if the relationship between countries enters this logic, the cost of rebuilding is too great.
It is also understandable that the United States to pass the contradictions out today.Under the democracy of one person and one vote, votes are the basis of power, and the only source of legitimacy. Political figures dare not offend any social groups, and they dare not offend the influential vested interests.Internal reforms are arduous, and even the reform is not moving, so he has to output contradictions.However, in the state of globalization, high -dependence relationships have been formed between countries, and it is not easy to output contradictions outward, often leading to a thousand wounded people and self -damaging 800.
Although various types of hardliners in the United States are constantly hustle and bustle on Chinese issues, no one wants to ask what is the rationality of this hustle and bustle?What is the purpose of the end?No one can ask if it can solve the problem of the United States in the end?
No matter how Chinese modernization will continue
Second, the United States' actions against China can slow down China, but it cannot obstruct and interrupt the process of China's modernization.Simply put, China's rise has its own logic, and this logic will not change due to changes in the external environment.Since the reform and opening up, China's development has been launched in a global state. China has also achieved huge benefits in the process of globalization, but this does not mean that China's modernization depends on the United States and the West to achieve.China's modernization is mainly the product of Chinese people's efforts, and it is also the product of the country's openness.
Even if there is a cold war between China and the United States, China's modernization will continue.China has formed its own political and economic system based on civilization. Although this system is still being improved, it has shown strong vitality.In addition, China's main source of economic growth is domestic demand.China is now one of the world's largest markets. With the advancement of projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Chinese market is rapidly expanding its extension.
In terms of technology, in the early stage of development, any economy will rely on technology that transversed from developed economies. After this stage passes, it will turn to the stage of innovation and many original technologies will appear.The process of China is walking.Whether it is a state -owned enterprise or a private enterprise, the funds invested in R & D are accelerating.Because the pressure brought by environmental changes (mainly the Sino -US trade war), this process will only be faster.
Third, today's China is no longer Wu Xia Amon, and will not be at the mercy of people, but has sufficient ability to resist the temptation of the United States (West) and passively dragged into the Cold War.Both World War I and World War II originated in Europe and affected other parts of the world.Today, the US hardships want to launch the Cold War in China. Can China be able to resist?
First of all, China does not want to take the initiative to launch the Cold War or not want to fall into the Cold War trap. It is clear and firm.At the level of leadership, from the early days of never dominating the peace, the policy goals such as the new type of great power, the avoidance of the trap such as Xiu Xandi all showed this firmness.Secondly, China has sufficient ability defense and national interests.
After the late Qing Dynasty, China suffered imperialist bullying and aggression.Today, this situation is difficult to imagine.Furthermore, China is also capable of resisting the political tragedy of large powers. China is already an inner element of international families, and it plays an increasingly important role on the international stage.
In the state of openness, more and more countries have become stakeholders of China's development, and the United States (and West) does not have any possibilities to beolate China.Furthermore, it is because of opening up that the West is no longer a iron plate on the Chinese issue.Due to the huge interests of China, the abandonment of the United States only means transfer, that is, the United States transfers its Chinese interests to other Western countries.Of course, the intention of the United States to abandon China is only reflected in tough factions, because giving up China is only administrative and political logic, not the capital logic of Wall Street.
In a word, although Sino -US relations are full of uncertainty, although the Cold War potential of the two countries has also emerged, as long as China cope with a calm and rational attitude, Sino -US relations will not be like the U.S. hardliners as a hardship center in the United States.willing.
(The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore) The article only represents personal opinions
