The relationship between the Sino -US trade war suspension is cautious and optimistic

Ming Pao News Agency

China and the United States have finally reached a ceasefire agreement on the trade war that lasted for nearly two years. It was temporarily put down in the hearts of the business community of the two countries. From a positive point of view, the two parties announced that this is the first stage of agreement, which means that there may be a number one.The second phase of the agreement and finally resolved the difference. However, based on the situation where the two countries entered the comprehensive competition, any small friction may also bring new confrontation. MoreoverDeton the new conflict between China and the United States at any time.Therefore, whether this agreement is the turning point of Sino -US relations or the buffer period before the next new conflict, it still needs to be cautious when optimistic.

The key part of the Sino -U.S. The first phase of the agreement is to take effect immediately. The tariff plan that was originally planned to be implemented on the 15th of this month will be canceled. As for other details, both parties have not been announced.It can only be white in the world after the signing of the month.Some of the contents revealed by the United States showed that the US tariffs on US $ 120 billion in Chinese imported goods in September this year fell from 15%to 7.5%, but the $ 250 billion commodity tax rate remained at 25%.China promises to increase imports worth $ 200 billion in imports in the next two years, of which 40 to 50 billion US dollars of goods are agricultural products.As for the details of the United States who require China to protect intellectual property rights and open financial markets, it is unknown.

According to limited information, it is difficult to judge who is the winner and who is a loser.But there is no controversy that as long as the two sides continue to fight, there is no winner. At least, at least the two parties can no longer fight for certain problems. Whether it is promised to promise whether it is a small step or a major step, they are actively solving actively solving.The direction of the problem took a step forward.

Winners Loser

Say too early

In the long process of negotiations, the United States once requested a comprehensive agreement once and for all, which means to solve all problems existing in the US -China trade, while China requires stages to solve the differences.Paying a huge price, because it promises that the United States has greatly improved imported American products, especially agricultural products and energy products. According to the impact of alternative effects, Chinese imports from the United States have meant to reduce or even completely stop importing soybeans from other countries. This is to offend a lot offending a lotThe country's.Leaving aside the problem of damage and benefits, China will import 50 billion US dollars of agricultural products from the United States in the next two years, which is doubled before the trade war.If they are abandoned cotton and soybeans, if they cannot transform successfully, they will constitute a lot of pressure on the country.

China said at a press conference that this was an agreement on the basis of equality and mutual respect.This is obviously a expression of taking care of face, because China has not obtained the level of returning tariffs to the pre -trade war, and the United States promises to reduce the tariffs on China's export to American smart phones, but at the same time restrict mobile phone manufacturers, Huawei purchased by mobile phone manufacturers to purchase the United StatesChip and software, such smart phones are difficult to gain a foothold in the US market, which is equal to pseudo -commitment.

U.S. President Trump did not deny that most tariffs remained unchanged and were chips for the next stage of negotiations.It means that in the next round of negotiations, the United States still has great power and can be opened to Chinese lions. This is not the key. Anyway, the two countries are still in trade. For businessmen in the two countries, business is the best.One side earns more, and the other side is less profitable. Although there is pressure, it is only a temporary dispute.

Fight in Hong Kong

US chips

China and the United States reached a ceasefire agreement. At the same time that the United States still imposed tariffs on a considerable number of goods, it was also aggressive. It limited some high -tech products to lose China and also limited the losses of Chinese products to the United States.With the electric bus, this is not harmful. China has won time, and high -tech will also develop and progress. There is no need to worry about this.As for some people in the Hong Kong political community, China ’s economy will collapse in China and the United States trade, and it will be stressed that the stability of the regime will be worried.

The biggest problem is that the mutual trust between China and the United States has not been eased. The United States still targets China's core interests.This is a real threat to China.It is foreseeable that in the future for a long time, Hong Kong will still become the US bargaining chip that the two countries confront.

At a press conference after reaching an agreement, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that China is committed to working with the United States to achieve non -conflict and confrontation, respecting each other, and win -win cooperation.However, whether China and the United States can achieve non -conflict or confrontation, it is impossible to decide that the United States is a consensus on the development and rise of China's development and rise. The American administrative authorities only implement their national policy. President Trump personally is particularly tough on this issue.It is not accidental, especially during the election, Trump was involved in the impeachment problem, and it would not be surprising when it would be a move to China to make a shift.

At the same time, Zheng Zeguang threw an olive branch to the United States, and also said that we firmly defended national sovereignty, security, and development interests.It can be understood that for the trade war, China does not want to fight, nor is it afraid of fighting this consistent position, and will not change because of the first phase of the agreement, and China's determination to defend the core interests will not concession.People can only hope that the stopping war and ease for a long time, and the time for the war is later.