Comment on China and the United States on the first phase of the economic and trade ag

Author: Mei Xinyu

I was impressed by the latest press conference in China ’s new night held at night.

My point of view: First of all, this is an agreement of equality and mutual benefit. Only an agreement that is equal and mutually beneficial is an agreement that hopes to implement and complies with long -term compliance.Its equality and mutual benefit is highly reflected in the initials of the trade war, and the United States agrees to cancel the additional tariffs on Chinese goods in stages. This is the core concern of China in this negotiation.

At the same time, its equality and mutual benefit is also reflected in the US commodity market access of some of the Chinese commodity markets before the outbreak of the trade war.For example, the United States has recently announced the final rules that allow China's self -produced poultry meat and catfish products to lose the United States. China has become a country that is eligible to export self -produced raw materials to the United States after Canada, Mexico, Chile and other countries.The world is eligible for one of the three countries that export catfish to the United States.In addition, the United States also agreed to announce the reporting procedures for the supervision of Xiangli, citrus, and fresh dates in the United States, allowing these products to export them to the United States, and made positive commitments to the automatic detention of Chinese -American water products as soon as possible in the agreement.Some of these problems have been discussed for more than 10 years, and this time finally had a substantial breakthrough.

As for China ’s expansion of imported agricultural products and energy from the United States, this was our consensus before the outbreak of the trade war.I proposed an epic trade war on the day of the outbreak of the trade war. Before the outbreak of the trade war, I have actively advocated expanding the import of agricultural products and energy from the United States.These expanding imports are not only conducive to improving our national life, but also to help curb the cost of domestic downstream industrial costs, maintain and enhance the international competitiveness of domestic downstream manufacturing industries.Don't forget that China is the world's largest manufacturing country, and manufacturing is our national economic foundation.The trade war has been suspended and upgraded, and returning to the orbit of equal and mutually beneficial trade is a good thing for both parties.

Secondly, this is a good thing for the economy and world economy between China and the United States.China and the United States are the only two trillion trillion dollars in the world in the world. Even the world's third economic country in Japan. Last year's nominal GDP was only equivalent to 37%of China.50%come from China and the United States.The comprehensive trade war between China and the United States is a full nightmare for global economic and trade.

It should be noted that the global economic and trade growth situation is not very good now.In October 2018, January 2019, April 2019, and July 2019, and October 2019, the International Monetary Fund organized the World Economic Outlook Report (Weo) and its key prediction updates has lowered the world economic growth expectations in 2019 5 consecutive times.At present, the world economic growth rate in 2019 is expected to be 3.0%, which is the minimum growth rate since the subprime mortgage crisis, which is 0.8 percentage points lower than the global economic growth rate (3.8%) in 2017.And it is expected that the world economic growth rate in 2020 is only 3.4%, which is 0.2 percentage points by the April forecast of the report.

In 2018, the global cargo trade growth rate was only 3.0%, which was lower than the 3.9%of the previous expectations of the WTO; 2019 MDASH released by the WTO on April 2; in the global trade outlook in 2020, it is expected that the growth rate of cargo trade in 2019 will further further.Fall to 2.6%.

Not only that, the US economy, which is currently on the peak of prosperity, is also increasingly approaching the turning point of the financial bubble rupture and a new crisis. Among the domestic and foreign academic circles and market institutions, quite a few people think that the US economy is likely to be trapped around 2020.financial crisis.If this expectation becomes a reality, the world's economic growth rate will go down further.

In this case, the Sino -US trade war has doubled the impact of global economic and trade; and the favorable output of war has also doubled.

In the long period of background, the world economy has entered a period of low growth around 2014 and may last about 10 years.The impact of the Sino -US trade war on the world economy will be long -term.

It does not mean that everything is good for the first phase of the agreement text.After all, the United States has previously expressed the spirit of abandoning the contract many times. Will there be accidents during the signing period?

Can it be implemented after signing the contract?

What should I do if there is no hard bone problem involved in the first phase of the agreement?

After the outbreak of the Sino -US trade war broke out, the United States pushed the friction dispute from a bilateral area and a multilateral system, from simply economic and trade fields to politics and even military friction. Hellip; hellip;Development, Trump's political opponents will also work hard to give him eye medicine, we must have a full and cold understanding of this.

On the day of the 13th, I participated in the 2019 International Situation and China Foreign Foreign Affairs Seminar. Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a opening speech to attack the United States in 2019 in the fields of economy, trade, technology, and personnel exchanges.Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, human rights, etc. involving the core interests of Chinese territorial sovereignty and national dignity have deliberately attacked and discredited.The charges that are unnecessary to condemn the United States for this rare paranoid behavior in international exchanges; a press conference held a press conference at night announced that the first stage of the China -US economic and trade agreement text was reached.Our decision -making level is calm and sober.

At the same time, in 2020, the United States may have a financial crisis and the depression of the real economy at all. Once this happens, their motivation to China will definitely weaken.In this regard, we must also have enough preparation to do not hold fantasy for the economic cycle.

Therefore, don't pin your hope on other countries, based on self -struggle, and do your own affairs.