Sino -US trade frictions have continued for several months.A few days ago, good news came, and China and the United States were close to reaching the first phase of trade agreement.Inventory of the gains and losses of China and the United States since this trade war may help reveal the future development trend.
The trade war was a war that could not be seen in peace.In this war, the offense and defense between China and the United States are very fast, each with its own tricks, making the outside world dizzy.The commercial losses of both parties caused by this process are also huge.With its rich experience in business in business, Trump realized that it was not simple to negotiate the opponent of China. Its praise that Chinese negotiating representatives should be very professional, not just superficial compliments.Therefore, after the waves of offensives failed, the United States with stronger comprehensive strength is willing to shake hands with China again.At this stage, China and the United States can basically be tied.
At this stage, the gains of China have temporarily relieve the further deterioration of the situation.China has temporarily avoided the United States to further impose tariffs; avoiding the spread of trade war towards culture, education, finance and other fields.Trump said that there is no special restriction on Chinese students. The universities in the United States have maintained openness, showing that the United States temporarily has no intention of burning war to other fields in China and the United States, and has no intention of expanding.However, China cannot allow the United States to completely revoke tariffs and abandon many restrictive measures for Chinese companies, which also makes the agreement between the two parties only preliminary agreements.
The United States continued to consolidate its results in increasing tariffs in the first stage, and there was no plan to revoke tariffs.In response to the implementation of the phase agreement, the United States may put forward plans to withdraw taxes in stages.This is more in line with the usual practice of the United States, and the hard bone of tariffs is not easy.More importantly, Trump's first -stage agreement with China is the best assist in the presidential election.In particular, China is willing to increase the procurement of American agricultural products, so that Trump will explain to the agricultural state voters who support him.
For Trump, if the trade war with the Chinese side continues to be upgraded, although it meets the desire of hardships, but the economic and trade decoustals of the two parties will not be a disaster for the US economy in the short term.The opportunity to be elected president was hung.For the Chinese side, Trump does not like it, but if a new president is selected, it will not guarantee that the new president's trade policy will be completely reversed.Therefore, after Trump made a certain concession, China followed the trend and reached an agreement with the United States on a limited issue.
Trump's external Chinese consultant Michael Pillsbury believes that the trade negotiations between the two countries have made progress, but should not be considered as a final agreement.This analysis is right.Even though both China and the United States can sign the first phase of the agreement in November or later, this is just the beginning. The next second or third stage negotiations will still be very difficult.EssenceAfter all, from the past experience, negotiations with the United States are all over the years.If China does not want to lose too much in negotiations, it should be treated with cautious attitude.
From the perspective of Trump's personality characteristics, he believes that transactions will be a win -win situation, that is, he also realizes that only by allowing the other party to get benefits can the transaction be sold.But from a practical point of view, Trump is accustomed to squeezing each other's concessions in the negotiation with tough and unpredictable means.In this way, the negotiations are almost unable to get up.Only after a long -term hard tug -of -type negotiations, we can step by step to reach the agreement between China and the United States.
The agreement that can reach a temporary truce can be relieved for both China and the United States.Of course, there will be many irresistible factors that will be further relieved or deteriorated in the future.The most important thing is that the negotiating team of the two parties has made progress in the issues of concern to each other, so that the situation will not worsen further.This is just like going against the water.
The two sides should work hard to make Sino -US cooperation not break the situation, and China and the United States can continue to coexist between competition and cooperation.This is in line with the interests of both China and the United States. In the global economic downturn, it will also be welcomed by countries around the world.
The author is an associate researcher at the Southeast Asia Research Institute of Guangxi Academy of Social Sciences
