Yu Zeyuan: Sino -US economic and trade negotiations may usher in a new breakthrough

Early

Ji Yan Chunqiu

Last weekend, the 13th round of economic and trade consultations in China and the United States held in Washington made positive progress, so that the hope of reaching an agreement to reaching an agreement in the stalemate of economic and trade negotiations.

This result exceeded the expectations of public opinion.On the eve of the China Vice Premier Liu He led the delegation to the United States, the United States suddenly announced that the Xinjiang public security department and related Chinese enterprises were included in the sanctions blacklist. China blocked the influence of the American Professional Basketball League (NBA) in China at a rare speed and strength., A thick shadow for negotiations.Public opinion generally deepen Liu He's trip to Washington, and there are even rumors that the negotiations will end early.

However, compared with the 12th round of economic and trade negotiations in China and the United States held in Shanghai in the previous round, this round of negotiations are more effective and even breakthrough.U.S. President Trump told the media when he met with Liu He and his party on Saturday that the U.S. -China economic and trade consultation achieved a substantial first stage of results. He believed that the two sides were very close to ending the trade war.

Chinese official media also said that the two parties in this round of negotiations have made substantial progress in the areas of agriculture, intellectual property protection, exchange rates, financial services, expanding trade cooperation, technological transfer, and dispute resolution.The two sides discussed the subsequent consultation arrangements and agreed to work hard to work together in the direction of the final agreement.

Specifically, the progress of China -US negotiations includes: both parties will be divided into two or three stages to resolve economic and trade differences and sign agreements; the first agreement will be formulated within the next five weeks.Buy 40 billion to 50 billion US dollars (about S $ 68.5 billion) of US agricultural products, and start to solve the concern of the United States about Chinese intellectual property and financial services;Intellectual property rights, technological transfer and other issues; the United States delayed the implementation of tariffs on US $ 250 billion in imports of Chinese imports on October 15; the United States may be removed from the list of exchange rate manipulation of the exchange rate;At the APEC Leadership Meeting of the Asia -Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in Chile, a comprehensive agreement was signed.

Although the above results cannot be fully satisfied with China and the United States, both parties can be accepted, otherwise the negotiations will be unsustainable.

On the basis of continuing the existing tariffs on Chinese products, the United States sells a lot of agricultural products to China, fulfilling Trump's commitment to American farmers, and adds points for Trump's re -election.At the same time, in terms of intellectual property protection, mandatory technology transfer, market openness, and dispute resolution mechanism, the concern of the United States has also been positive in China. This is the basis for the two sides to continue to negotiate.

For China, the United States accepts the sequence of negotiations that are easy and difficult, to prevent the United States from improving new tariffs on Chinese products, preventing the continuous upgrading of the Sino -US trade war, and reducing the risk of comprehensive deterioration of Sino -US relations.Removes in the list of exchange rate operations are all the results of this round of negotiations.As for a large number of purchasing American agricultural products, strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights, and prohibiting compulsory technology transfer, open markets, etc., in the Chinese plan and commitment, China has made compromise in these fields, which is not difficult.

In the next step, China and the United States will negotiate and strive to complete the first phase of the agreement before the Chile APEC meeting, and sign a comprehensive agreement for the two heads of state.The first phase of the agreement mainly includes the purchase content of Chinese agricultural products, as well as determining the content of intellectual property rights and financial services. The difficulty is not too difficult.If the two parties successfully reached the first phase of the agreement, the Sino -US economic and trade negotiations will usher in a major breakthrough after the two sides started the trade war last year.

After more than a year of talk, both China and the United States have a better understanding of each other's strength and bottom line.It should be said that the high -voltage strategy adopted by the United States has been strongly resisted by the Chinese side in trade with China. The Trump administration cannot convince China in one stick, so he has to agree with the small agricultural products, exchange rates, trade balance and other fields of agricultural products, exchange rates, and trade balance between the two parties.Progress is made to avoid more damage to the US economy and consumers, affecting the next year's election.

However, the United States is still a strong party in negotiations. This is determined by the comparison of China and the United States. It cannot be changed in the short term.In other words, regardless of whether China is willing, the United States still takes the initiative and even dominant position in the next Sino -US negotiations.

Therefore, while counterattacking the U.S.'s extreme pressure, China must also make certain compromises in the purchase of American products, intellectual property protection, and market opening up to avoid the complete breakthrough of Sino -US trade and the comprehensive deterioration of Sino -US relations.This is in line with China's reality and long -term interests.