Zhu Ying
There are three perspectives of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations in October. First, where is the starting point of the negotiation?First of all, what extent does it talk about after more than a year of Sino -US economic and trade negotiations?China did not disclose the specific content of the negotiations, and the United States had disclosed it.
On September 8 this year, Yahoo Finance announced an exclusive interview and reporting on Lamarro. Navaro said in the May of this year's negotiations that the two parties have reached a more than 150 pages of an agreement, involving seven involving seven ones.In terms of content and execution agreements, after 11 negotiations between the two parties, the agreement text is specific to the punctuation and paragraphs.This is the most detailed negotiation information that the outside world knows so far.As for the reason for the breakdown of the negotiations, the United States blamed China on regret that China determined that the United States would damage China's sovereignty.One detail revealed by the US trade representative Leitzizo is that the United States will publish the text of the negotiation agreement, and China is only willing to announce the abstract.This is also a reason for the breakdown of negotiations.
The Sino -US economic and trade negotiations could not bypass the text in May.According to Navarro's position, it must be returned to the text in May, which is the basis for the two sides to move forward.If the Chinese side accepts this text, the original negation is meaningless; if China does not accept this text, it will be difficult for the United States to accept it.If you continue to bargain with this text, the road of negotiation is still long, or it is difficult to reach an agreement, and China will not conquer sovereignty.
Second, will a temporary agreement be reached?In September, the media disclosed that Chinese officials hoped to limit the content of the negotiations to trade issues, and put national security issues on another track to negotiate separately.This is the so -called dual -track system, first sign a temporary agreement, and then sign a final agreement.The time for discussing the dual -track system is the time when China and the United States interpret each other on September 11.
Trump's statement of this is ambiguous. He said that he would consider reaching a temporary trade agreement with China, but also said that he was more inclined to reach a comprehensive agreement.The so -called temporary agreement includes China to increase the purchase of American agricultural products and protect intellectual property; the United States delays tariffs, or cancel all tariffs.
As a result, the facts we see are: On September 17, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced three notices of the exclusion list of tariffs on China and Canada.Chinese products that are approved by tariffs.
Another fact is: Liao Yan, deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance of China, visited the United States on September 18 and negotiated with the US and US economic and trade issues on September 18.Whether China will buy a large number of US agricultural products has become the focus of media attention. The Minister of Agriculture of the United States Pop Du told reporters on the 19th that Chinese delegations will visit American agricultural state with US officials.
On the 20th, the China Trade delegation canceled the visit to the Agricultural State of the United States, causing suspicion of the outside world.By the 23rd, China stated that it had a good effect on the US -China trade negotiation last week.On the same day, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin confirmed that the US trade delegation canceled his visit to the US agricultural state at the request of the US trade delegation.Then, China purchased about 600,000 tons of American soybeans.On the 24th, Bloomberg reported that China had purchased more than 10,000 tons of American pork and was preparing to buy 100,000 tons.
What does Trump say about this?On the 20th, he said that it was not enough to agree to buying agricultural products more.He did not think he needed to reach a trade agreement with China before the 2020 presidential election.He also changed his mouth and said that we were seeking a comprehensive agreement.We do not seek incomplete protocols.According to this statement, there is no temporary agreement.On the 24th, Trump said at the UN General Assembly that I would not accept a bad agreement in Sino -US economic and trade negotiations.
Third, how much pressure does their own afford?The pressure on negotiations in China is much lower than the United States.China's economic downturn and the people's livelihood issues are the pressure of negotiations in China.Prime Minister Li Keqiang said on September 16 that the Chinese economy can still maintain a medium and high -speed growth of more than 6%, which is not easy.On the 23rd, Zhu Guangyao, deputy minister of the Ministry of Finance in China, said to CNBC: It is not easy to achieve a 6.2%growth, because every time a percentage point is reduced, it loses more than 2 million positions.
But there is no pressure on public opinion.The general public in China filled with indignation of the United States, and they both supported the Chinese government to fight against the United States.Regardless of whether the negotiation is successful or not, the Chinese government has achieved the victory of maintaining sovereignty and maintaining the socialist system under the strong leadership of the party.The Chinese government adheres to the bottom line of thinking, does not commit disruptive mistakes, and welcomes stormy waves.
The United States is different, and public opinion in the United States is pressured to Trump.According to media reports on September 11, in July, the U.S. people paid $ 6.8 billion for Trump's tariffs.According to media reports on September 17, American farmers hope to reach a trade agreement in the United States and China.According to media reports on September 24, a survey by the World Society of World Enterprises showed that consumer confidence in the United States fell in September.
Another public opinion also pressured Trump.On September 16th, Littichizer did not mention the temporary agreement in public.On September 19th, Vice President Pence said that Trump will stand firm until the Chinese side decided to accept the reform in order to abide by international rules and reset the US -China trade relations.On September 20th, the US Democratic Senator Chris Middot; Conns said that Trump must ensure that any trade agreement reached by the United States and China must include the problem of preventing American intellectual property.
Judging from the pressure of the eagle, Trump opened his bow and did not turn back.On September 19th, the Minister of Commerce Ross emphasized that what China is willing to pay is the key. China only buys agricultural products enough. On the same day, Bai Bangrui, a part -time consultant of the White House, said that if the United States and China have not reached a trade agreement in the near future, Trump has prepared a significant improvement in the right.Tariffs of Chinese goods.It is currently a low -level tariff that can be increased to 50%or 100%.
The Wall Street Lady is also making a noise to China.On September 9th, Soros said Trump's policy for China was very correct.On the 17th, Su Shimin of the Blackstone Group of Wall Street publicly stated that China knew that it had to change its trade and business practice.Su Shimin has a deep relationship with China.
It is worth noting that the leaders of China and the United States advocate patriotism in the same way.On the 24th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China reviewed the outline of patriotism education in the new era and advocated vigorously promoting the spirit of patriotism.On the same day, Trump claimed at the United University that he would not be a globalist in the future and would be a patriot in the future.They advocate patriotism to provide the most powerful support for Sino -US economic and trade negotiations.
The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai Normal University Business School
