Zhu Ying
As the saying goes, the situation is stronger than people. On September 11, the interpretation of the interpretation of the Sino -US trade war proves this.On September 11th, the Chinese government announced that since September 17 this year, it will suspend tariffs on 16 types of goods in the United States in one year.Trump quickly responded to the date of raising the tariff rate of Chinese commodities by 5%on October 1, which will be postponed from two weeks to October 15.
This time, China took the initiative to take a step back, instead of releasing goodwill to the United States, it is better to improve people's livelihood.The pork problem has become a major event in China for a while. The impact it brings to the Chinese people's livelihood far exceeds the Sino -US trade war. It is related to the people's livelihood of 1.4 billion Chinese people.People ’s livelihood is the foundation of the country. There is nothing bigger than people’ s livelihood. Pork problems have become the current problem of people ’s livelihood in China.
On September 10th, Chinese official data showed that the price of pork in August soared 46.7%year -on -year, the largest year -on -year increase in eight years.With the arrival of the Mid -Autumn Festival and approaching the eleven holiday, in order to suppress the soaring trend of pork prices, purchase restriction measures are adopted.The Beijing News reported that according to incomplete statistics, nearly 10 provinces (cities, counties) including Nanning, Haikou, Jiangxi, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan have issued relevant policies for pork limit purchase and purchase.
Pork tickets have been issued in individual regions of China, and meat tickets have been issued since September 1.Yang Can, director of the Nanning Picada Comprehensive Market Management Department, said that the relevant departments in the area under the jurisdiction were issued meat tickets one by one to citizens who came to buy pork on September 1st and September 2nd, and distributed more than 1,500 copies in two days.This move has stopped.
The reason for the rise in pork prices is that the supply of pork is reduced, and the reducing supply is the infection of swine plague.On August 3, 2018, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of China first acknowledged that the African swine fever epidemic in four provinces in China.Xinhua News Agency said that from the strains that caused the African swine fever epidemic in China, some gene sequences were completely consistent with the corresponding sequences of Georgia 2007 and Russia's Irkutzk 2017 strains.
It is inferred that China imported pigs and pork into African swine plague from these regions.The Sino -US trade war has reduced pork imported from the United States by more than half in 2018.
In January 2019, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural China stated that the African plague has a limited impact on the market.People are not as good as heaven.The destructive power of African swine plague exceeds official estimates.As of July 3, 2019, a total of 143 African swine fever epidemic occurred in China, and more than 1.16 million pigs were culled.Large -scale bruises and farmers' raising pigs, leading to shortage of pork.
Lin Guofa, researcher at the Briek Agricultural Products Research Network, believes that with about 55 million tons of pork output in 2018 as the benchmark, China's pork output will be reduced between 11 million tons and 13.75 million tons in 2019.China's frozen pork reserves are 100 to 1.5 million tons, and the supply gap is 10 million tons.
In this context, it is not difficult to understand that the Chinese government's goodwill to the United States is intended to solve the problem of people's livelihood.On September 12, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that Chinese companies began to buy inquiries on American soybeans and pork.Reuters reported that Chinese importers purchased at least 600,000 tons of American soybeans on September 12, which is the largest purchase since China since June this year.Imported soybean is an effective measure to solve the problem of pork.
Trump's good deeds to China have expressed goodwill on the one hand, and on the other hand, the US economic situation also needs to stop improving tariffs.A public opinion survey released by Broadcasting Corporation on September 10 showed that 60%of Americans said that economic recession may occur next year.Trump's support has declined. Trump's support rate among Americans in the voting age is 38%, a decrease of 6 percentage points from July, slightly lower than his occupation average.About 56%of people expressed their disapproval of Trump's governance performance.
Trump responded to this that the polls of Broadcasting Corporation are the worst and most inaccurate polls.The fact that Trump, who is a strong word, cannot avoid the fact that if you have full confidence in economic prospects, why should you urge the Fed to implement a negative interest rate policy?On September 11, Trump called on the Federal Reserve's fools to reduce interest rates to negative value. The Fed should reduce our interest rate to zero or lower, and then we should start to reinstate our debts.Interest costs can be greatly reduced, and at the same time extend the deadline.
The market's interest rate reduction expectations for the Fed may lead to a new round of interest rate cuts in major central banks around the world.On September 12, the European Central Bank Council decided to reduce the deposit interest rate by 10 basis points to 0.5%, the lowest level in history.Reuters reported on September 12 that the Bank of Japan is studying the method of further lowering negative interest rates at the lowest cost.Behind the central bank's interest rate cuts is the global concerns about the global economic recession.
Oxford Economic Research Institute Economist Bostianchi said that we will also be affected by economic slowdown.Based on factors such as the weaker industrial production index and the decline in automotive sales of the United States, the United States believes that the United States will be one -third of the possibility of economic recession in the next year.Middot, head of the US Economic Department of Bank of America Merrillin; Meyer said that economic data is weak and gives a decline signal, especially from industrial aspects, and trade is a large part of it.
This time, China and the United States' interpretation of goodwill have little impact on Sino -US trade negotiations that are brewing.On September 12, Trump stated that he would consider reaching a temporary trade agreement with China, but he was more inclined to reach a comprehensive agreement.He said: I see a lot of analysts say that we will reach a temporary agreement, that is, we will do some simple work first.Either there are agreements or not.On the same day, Mnuchin said that President Trump will only accept a good agreement and is willing to increase tariffs when necessary.
Peter Middot, Director of the National Trade Commission of the White House; Navarro said on September 8 that the United States will not retreat from the requirements of China's previous trading agreement, and once again enumerate the so -called seven crimes of China.Chinese Central Media named Dudaro three times.
On September 6th, the White House economic adviser, Kudelo, said that the U.S. -China trade talks in October could not be made in October.The US team has negotiated with China for 18 months. It seems that no evidence has made progress. Only the tariffs have been seen. How can consumers and the industrial and commercial circles believe that the October talks can be different?He also quoted the history of the Cold War against the United States and the Soviet Union that the problem between the United States and China was not a temporary dispute.This shows that Sino -US trade negotiations seem to have an obstacle that cannot be broken.
The author is a professor of economics at Shanghai Normal University Business School
