This article will first discuss the bottom of the Hong Kong political chaos, and pointed out that the political chaos that are bred from these bottoms have been able to maintain and develop themselves by self -maintenance and development, making it more difficult for people to sort out and judge the correct solution.The article then explores the possibilities ending of this political chaos and the correct direction to solve the problem.
Hong Kong avoidance system
The first thing to point out is that the so -called accountability system in Hong Kong is actually a avoidance system.Hong Kong Special Administrative Region senior officials are not only due to high salaries, the official residences of the people who are out of the masses, and they are specialized in and out of the car without understanding the pain of the people. They are afraid of being accountable to lose their officials.Many problems have continued to accumulate in terms of houses, economic development, and people's livelihood, and some of them have caused the bottom of today's political chaos.
In addition, due to their tendency and lack of sufficient ideals, the Chinese government must also be careful of some directors of the Division when dealing with the political chaos.They will be able to deal with the cause of the chaos this time, otherwise these unspeakable causes will still cause another greater political chaos in the future.In short, it is not appropriate to expect these senior officials to help Hong Kong solve these problems because they are the source of the problem.
The end of the political chaos
It may not be fully understood by mainland China that the previous SAR governments have not done well in dealing with houses, economic development, and people's livelihood issues, which seriously weaken the prestige of the SAR government's governance (compared with the Singapore government, it is exposed).Among the considerable part of the citizens, the long -term and layered accumulation has accumulated a variety of negative perceptions and distrust of the Hong Kong and Chinese governments, and then caused today's political chaos due to the guidance of people with the heart.
Among the many causes, house problems (high housing prices and serious insufficient public houses) should be the most important.Before this round of political chaos caused house prices to fall slightly, a 800 -square -foot three -bedroom unit in Hong Kong sold to HK $ 89 million ($ 1.41 million to S $ 1.6 million), and a two -bedroom unit of about 500 square feet soldAbout 6 million Hong Kong dollars (S $ 1.06 million), and the monthly salary of non -university graduates who just graduated is only about 16,000 Hong Kong dollars.
House prices that continue to rise sharply have caused the illusion that wages can never catch up with house prices. How can a normal young man feel bad and disappointed?However, some real estate developers and rich second -generation and vested interests responsible for Hong Kong youth government affairs have asked young people to continue to buy money to buy buildings. As soon as they know their income, they cannot afford the building. Is it stupid to be these young people?IntersectionBefore this round of demonstration, the author also lamented to friends privately. If I was a young man in Hong Kong, I would also march on the street. The reason is that there is no hope anyway.And those who have vested interests are familiar.
The above analysis also explains the scorched soil policy of popular discussion among Hong Kong groups: that is, it has always been struggling. Even if Hong Kong has become a scorched soil, it can also stir -fry with vested interests (that is, jade burn).
SAR officials do not understand how to develop the economy (except that the author suggested that Liang Jinsong developed the tourism industry at that time, it was basically lacking of good), and could not effectively control the property market bubble from 2009 to the present (Hong Kong property prices have previously doubled three and a half, Singapore in the same period, Singapore in the same period, Singapore in the same period, Singapore in the same period.The cumulative increase of private houses is only more than 50 %, and the cumulative increase in the group house is only 30 %), and it has not increased public houses.Before the Hong Kong government came to power in the past two sessions, they would increase public houses. As a result, the teams waiting for housing and public housing were longer and longer. In the first two or three years, they could complain about the serious land shortage of Zeng Yinquan.The land is still a serious shortage. Not only does the housing and public housing continue to be seriously deficient, but the saddest thing is that most citizens and young people can't see public houses at all.These situations have led to the decline in the prestige of the SAR government and the rise of the people's grievances.
To make matters worse, the current property market bubble will explode sooner or later, and then it will cause financial turmoil in Hong Kong, a serious economic recession, and a rapid rise in unemployment. Even if the Hong Kong Chief Executive can be in front of this level, it may not be able to get the bubble of the property market.close.
In addition, the past milk powder incident, parallel imports, mainland home industry people promoted Hong Kong house prices, double -non -student children increased the pressure of Hong Kong education resources, and maternal and patients who came to Hong Kong increased the pressure of medical resources in Hong Kong.There are relief, but a considerable part still exists.
Even more unfortunately, whether it is slightly relieved or has not yet fully eased, the negative impression of these incidents has been deeply stayed in the minds of many Hong Kong people, and even what the author sees (many Hong Kong people responds)Cutting his teeth and anger, and extended its dissatisfaction with the Chinese central government and the current political position.
In particular, these dissatisfaction contains many misunderstandings.Take the development of tourism as an example. At that time, the central government's request to launch free travel at the request of the Hong Kong Government was based on the good willingness to assist the Hong Kong economy through difficulties.However, because the Hong Kong government’s financial officials did not control the property price after the economic recovery, and even the later tourism revenue, only the prices and rent of the shops and houses have been pushed. In addition to the benefits of developers and owners, ordinary citizens are fundamentally fundamental.Can't feel the tourism income brought by the good willingness of the central government.In particular, they only see the various problems brought by a large number of domestic tourists, and therefore extended their dissatisfaction with the central government.
Due to space limitations, the author will discuss the reasons caused by other Hong Kong government mistakes in the future.
Some people may see the masses who come out now, in fact, including many people who have buildings or live in public housing, thereby neglecting that property prices and housing problems are not the bottom of today's political dilemma, but if we are willing to go to the net to reach the netTake a look at the voices of young people. In addition to a large number of political demands guided by the people and the Chinese Central Committee and the Hong Kong Government, property prices and housing issues are the most discussed parts.In one of the young people, among the young people, the preceding two sections of WhatsApp information that has been circulating and sour in the previous two sections that the previous generation applied for public housing for a few years, and the current young people applying for public housing from 18 to 50It may not wait, and the new immigrants can buy a house and buy a house quickly. Why do you understand why young people are troubled?
Solving direction and possible results
Faced with the above -mentioned political dilemma that can be maintained by self -maintenance today, the author's recent article has pointed out that the best strategy of the central government is that Enmay and people should not be able to stop.The prestige of the author should not say it, but in terms of grace and the people's intentions, it is to urge the Hong Kong government to provide a large number of public houses to deal with the above -mentioned people's livelihood issues to relieve the people's grievances.Now try to let the SAR government deal with the political situation. It is a smart choice if it is not necessary to enter the city. Otherwise, it may be dragged down by the unintentional of the SAR government in the U.S. and European economic siege.
If you really have to use the armed police to enter the city, it is best to ask the developer to spit out a large number of agricultural land and Xianneng psychologically accumulated in the past, so that the new government can build a large number of housing and public housing to most citizens.Contradiction allows Hong Kong to start again.
This article also reminds young people that if they can focus on the above -mentioned houses, people's livelihood, and even upper -level opportunities, they have the opportunity to successfully win the support of the central government, so as to write glory for the world's mass movements and Hong Kong historyOne page.However, if the person who is concerned about transforming the problem into political issues, the central government has a responsibility to respond strongly for hundreds of millions of Chinese nationals to keep political stability and strong response, then the chance of success in this round of mass movement will be almost zero.
Unfortunately, young people in Hong Kong are likely to not know how to stop and harvest results, and the mid -term ending of the mass movement is likely to end in tragedy.In addition, since the central government has initially preliminarily unnecessary the armed police cannot enter the city, the protagonist who has recently cleaned up the political chaos will only be the Hong Kong government, which has been urged by the central government to urge violence.To solve the chaos, the Hong Kong government must also make a good psychological preparation at any time and even the results.
Taking middle school students who are brewing as an example, if the director of the Hong Kong Education Bureau can prohibit teachers from guiding middle school students to participate in the fight, it will facilitate the development of the situation in the direction of stability. It can also prevent middle school students from deciding their political tendencies prematurely, otherwise the situation will become unpredictable at any time.In addition, the long -lasting struggle may also trigger the bubble blasting of the Hong Kong property market and a serious economic recession, making the situation more complicated.
Regardless of how the political situation is developed in the future, the above -mentioned chaos and avoidance systems must be clarified, otherwise another greater political chaos will still be caused in the future.
(The author is an associate professor at the Department of Economics of Nanyang University of Technology in Singapore)
