Ming Pao News Agency
The latest round of trade negotiations between China and the United States delayed one month from the original September. On the surface, the two countries were still talking, but the US White House economic adviser Kudlo met the US -China trade friction as the Cold War.It will inevitably.The global economy is already downturn. In the future, the snow will be worse, and the more open economies will receive the greater impact. At present, countries are taking countermeasures, including restricting some tight resource exports and in the same battle.The order of international trade has been completely disrupted, and new order can be established.
Who is still watching the Sino -US trade war deer, but Kudlo recently told reporters that the interests involved in both sides are too great. It takes a long time to obtain the interests they deserve.EssenceHe said with his personal experience during the Presidential Government of Ligan that the United States also spent decades before turning the Soviet Union into Russia today.The remarks of senior White House officials actually associated this trade war with the Cold War of that year, which is very clear. The United States fights against China, far exceeding the superficial trade dispute.
Almost all comments believe that there are no winners in the Sino -US trade war.On the surface, the winner of the Sino -US battle is the winner that rely on the United States. Standing on the same front as China stands on the same front, it becomes a loser.Some research institutions have analyzed from data. Due to the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, Chinese exports to the United States have decreased, and exports of Vietnam, Mexico, South Korea have risen, and these countries can be counted as winners.In addition to commodity trade, manufacturing merchants from China have switched to Vietnam, and even returned to the United States. In Trump's words, China is experiencing the most difficult time for decades.
It is difficult for Sino -U.S.
Vietnam did taste the sweetness in the short term, but some reports also pointed out that many Vietnamese products exported to the United States are imported from China from China, and made the final assembly in Vietnam and then exported. Moreover, these assembly manufacturers, investors, investorsMany of them are Chinese businessmen, so in fact, the profit is still China.In the first eight months of this year, Chinese capital was the first in foreign investment in Vietnam. Moreover, the United States was also warning Vietnam that it was not possible to accept the trade surplus of tens of billions of dollars in Vietnam.Therefore, in the long run, whether the advantages of Vietnam have continued to observe.
Between the winners and the losers, most countries are in the gap between China and the United States. Europe is the most typical example.In the middle of beauty, vice versa.From the time of the German Chancellor Merkel, he also visited China to consolidate the relationship between the two countries.Singapore also has the same situation. Prime Minister Li Xianlong also stated in the National Day speech that China and the United States are important to Singapore in different fields. Singapore will not be affected by emotions when dealing with the relationship with these two countries.swing.
Even if these countries are trying to meet the source between China and the United States, under the environment of weak global economy, economic growth has been severely damaged. The EU's GDP fell from 2.3%in the same period last year to 1.4%.GDP was 3.2%last year. It is predicted that this year will be less than 1%this year, and it will continue, and it will enter a technical recession period.Although India has a huge domestic market and resistance to external factors, it cannot be spared. GDP has been picked up from 8%last year, and it only recorded 5%in the first half of this year.
Faced with the four sides of the United States, countries seeking countermeasures. In neighboring countries north and south of the United States, Mexico and Canada are critical to the geopolitical politics of the United States.And reach an agreement.Although the EU has strong strength, its dependence on foreign trade is high. Each four workers in Germany are engaged in export trade -related industries. Among them, the United States has reduced imports due to economic weakness, and Germany is difficult to settle.
Hong Kong trade does not have defense can only be integrated into the national situation
Faced with trade disputes between countries, the World Trade Organization (WTO) was originally an arbitration agency that resolves disputes.Small country only seek to be blessed.In the process of disintegrating the ice disappearance of the existing international trade order, some countries can only use killers. Japan will restrict the export of three semiconductor materials in the international market.The means of interests, under the principle of free trade, did not meet international trade practice. However, before the new international trade order was established, the country was disrupted and fighting between countries.
Hong Kong is a free port. Foreign trade is completely defensive, and there is no bargaining chip that compete with any trading partner. It is currently affected by peripheral factors. The GDP in the second quarter of this year is only 0.6%.The influence of the factors is not optimistic about GDP this year.The bigger problem is that Hong Kong is not only a bystander of the Sino -US trade war, but also becomes a bargaining chip to be threatened by the United States, and its own financial and fiscal policy tools are very weak. How to turn the tide is to the SAR government.Test.
The Sino -US trade war not only has no signs of suspension, but it is likely to be intensified. This is a war with a major international pattern. How to deal with international response is a big game. Hong Kong has no ability and chips to respond independently.The overall situation of national development to reduce the damage of international factors.lsquo;
