Zhang Jingwei
China and the United States continued their wrists. Last year, the Sino -U.S. dollar consensus reached by the two G20 summits in Buenos Aires, Argentina and this year, this year.
The United States imposes tariffs on US $ 550 billion in goods, and China has re -imposed tariffs on US $ 75 billion of goods from September 1.It seems that the tariff war between China and the United States is asymmetric, but in China, it is quite accurate with the small countermeasures in China.On the tax increase list issued in China, not only agricultural and sideline products such as soybean, but also the first time the crude oil increased taxes.In addition, taxi and parts have also begun to increase taxes.
The Chinese tariff strike for Trump's 2020 seeking a re -election situation is a clever strength.Agricultural Prefecture is Trump's iron ticket camp, which increases taxes on agricultural and sideline products such as soybean, and has broken Trump's basic votes.In addition, the impact of automobiles and crude oil on the US industry is also significant.Losing a big buyer in China is a lot of frustrations for the United States who became a crude oil exporter.
The point is that although the United States has delayed tariffs on the US $ 300 billion in US $ 300 billion in China for the Christmas shopping season.Data show that the price of US $ 25 billion in tax increases is that American consumers spend more than 600 US dollars per year each year, and the $ 300 billion in tax increase will increase the burden of each American household to $ 1,000.
US high -tech companies have continuously demanded that the Trump administration to lift the disconnection against Huawei. The manufacturing industry in the United States also called on Trump not to continue to impose tariffs on China, highlighting that American companies also feel the cold meaning of US customs tariffs and scientific and technological warfare in China.EssenceU.S. companies are even more worried that Trump has ordered Twitter that he wants to leave the Chinese company out of the Chinese market through national emergency status.This is not only a simple decoupling of the Sino -US market and the economy, but also makes people see the danger of declared war on China.
A president who has one year and up to four years in the White House. To destroy the deepening of economic and trade interests built by China and the United States for more than 40 years, it must also shake the globalization based on China and the United States. This is the United States.And the world's most worried.
The wayward Trump not only allows China and the United States to play a high -risk zero -sum game game, but also will also bet on the superpower status formed by the American great power since World War II. The world will also be trapped in uncertain risks.
China and the United States continued their wrists, and China paid a lot of economic costs.Bloomberg believes that the US tariff war may drop the Chinese economy by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, that is, China's economic growth will fall to less than 6%.However, from the perspective of precision response in China, China ’s countermeasures are very dedicated, and the overthrows of the United States are a bit messy.
For a period of time, the US stock market has been turbulent. Although the US consumption and employment data are good, the return on the 10 -year and two -year Treasury bonds in the United States is upside down, making analysts worry about the US economy or entering the decline cycle.In this regard, there are not many methods for Trump's government, which can only require the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. However, interest rate cuts will trigger global interest rate cuts, cause chaos in the global financial market, and even trigger a global exchange rate war.This will greatly lose the credit of the United States and the US dollar.
On August 29th, the Washington Post reported that Thomas Donohue, the president of the US Chamber of Commerce, warned that the tension of trade continued to upgrade, which may cause the US economy to decline and call for restarting US -China economic and trade consultations.He emphasized that American companies' investment in the first year has fallen for the first time in three years.At the same time, the US manufacturing industry has declined since December last year, and farm income has declined sharply.
Although China and the United States have wrists, although the United States is very powerful, it is difficult to continue.The pressure from the US corporate community, the turbulence of the stock market, and the US interest rate reduction pressure on the Federal Reserve highlight that the tools of the U.S. limit pressure have reached the limit.Because of this, from the scene of the French Seventeen Group (G7) summit to the United States, Trump's speech on the issue of trade friction between China and the United States was full of contradictions, highlighting that the wayward merchant president was chaotic.
After all, the cost of the United States at the economic level is exchanged for the reduction of Trump's support.Data show that the US Swing State's support for Trump has recently declined sharply, and the Republican Party has even prepared for the failure of Trump's campaign in Congress Mountain.The days when you can't stay in the White House are Trump's most worried.
In the Chinese and American wrists, the situation of the two strong games began to change.China had to take countermeasures, and the United States began to pay the price of economic overlay.This trick is to pressure China.
China and the United States are not ruthless.From the perspective of history, this is a case of textbooks provided by China to the world.
The author is a senior researcher at the China Chahar Society
Renmin University of China Chongyang Financial Research Institute Visit researcher
