Lin Yuan
North Korea's highest leader Kim Jong -un and US President Trump met on June 30 at Panmunjom. For about three weeks, he publicly showed not much.However, since the DPRK China Society reported on July 23, he was more frequent.
From July 25th to August 16th, he has guided the demonstration of new tactical guidance weapons, large -caliber rocket launchers, or new weapons (North Korean official media also used the word bomb) to launch.These are obviously not conducive to the further ease of the tension of the Korean Peninsula, and it is not helpful to overcome obstacles on North Korea -South Korea relations to continue to develop.
With reference to the official statement of North Korea, these demonstrations are first targeted at the South Korean military.In fact, in the process of easement of the situation in the peninsula began in 2018, in addition to condemning South Korea's conservative forces, North Korea also kept alertness to the South Korean military trend.On the one hand, the South Korean military continues to modernize weapons and equipment (Pyongyang is accusing so much), and on the other hand, it holds a joint military exercise with the United States. These two aspects have provoked North Korea's sensitive nerves.
The Korean and North Korea originally lacked military mutual trust. Even if the two sides had made some efforts, there was still a long way to go in enhanced military trust.
North Korea believes that the recent United States and South Korea ’s joint exercises violate the 6middot; the Joint Statement of the 12th DPRK and the United States, the Banmen Store Declaration, and the spirit of the common declaration of Pyongyang in September.RecentAnd stable destroyer.
The official Korean public opinion will point to Seoul, rather than Washington, or explain that Kim Jong -un still wants to continue the process of negotiations in the United States and North Korea at this stage, and has not fully abandoned to improve relations with the United States.Some people think that North Korea wants to use these actions (launching missiles, etc.) to remind the United States to hurry up and formally negotiate, which is not completely accurate.It can be seen from the governance speech published at the first meeting of Kim Jong -un at the first meeting of the 14th Supreme People's Conference that he was not urgent to negotiate in the United States and North Korea.
It is also necessary to mention that Trump mentioned on Twitter on August 10 that Kim Jong -un complained to his long letter recently complained of ridiculous and expensive military exercises, and said that the test shooting would stop after the exercise.In this way, on the one hand, Kim Jong -un wanted to use short -range missiles, etc. to express his protests and warnings on United States and South Korea's joint military exercises. On the other hand, he did not want to lead to a comprehensive upgrade of the tension between the Korean Peninsula and triggered a further tough background in the United States.
South Korea believes that Kim Jong -un launched short -range missiles, etc., intended to lead the negotiation situation and add negotiation chips.This statement has a certain reason, but it is not sure.If a joint military exercise is not held in the United States and South Korea, North Korea actively launch short -range missiles, and this view will be more full.From the perspective of North Korea, it may also think that the United States and South Korea held a joint exercise in order to lead the negotiation situation and increase the negotiation chips, and its continuous launch of short -range missiles, etc., is to destroy the US and South Korea's intention and strive to achieve the rebalancing in the negotiations between the two parties.
It should be pointed out here that under the fact that North Korea has not fully demonstrated the sincerity of abandoning nuclear, the United States must maintain pressure on the North Korea in terms of economy and military.Military exercises are reasonable.In this case, the United States and South Korea also need to accurately predict that North Korea responds to the possible response to the United States and South Korea in a certain period of time, and can respond to it in a timely manner.
In fact, the peace of the Korean Peninsula is still relatively fragile, and the military reserve competitions of the North and South have not really ended.If the tension of the peninsula intensifies, the prospects of North Korea's abandonment of nuclear will become even more unclear.On April 12 this year, Kim Jong -un mentioned in his governance speech: Anyway, by the end of this year, North Korea will try to wait for the decision -making of the United States, but it will definitely not have such a good opportunity.North Korea should not make major adjustments to the strategic route before the end of the year.
Even so, during this period, the US -DPRK negotiations are difficult to make important progress.Even if the negotiations between the two parties recovered, it was difficult for each other to retreat from the existing position.Kim Jong -un, who responded to the United States and South Korea's joint military exercises in a tough attitude, was reluctant to see North Korea's performance on the negotiating table for a period of time.As for whether North Korea will make new adjustments on the strategic route next year, it still needs to be observed.
The author is a scholar, a doctor of history
