Hong Kong's anti -repair cases have continued to be burned so far, and it is unknown when it ended.On August 18th, China announced that it will support Shenzhen to become a pre -demonstration zone of socialism with Chinese characteristics. It seems that when the Hong Kong incident is difficult to solve, a new policy causes a new policy to provide Shenzhen development space and give new pressure on Hong Kong.
Observing the policy specially emphasized the promotion of the interconnection of Shenzhen and Hong Kong and Macao financial markets and mutual recognition of financial (fund) products. At the same time, it also promoted the connotation of the first trial of the RMB internationalization and exploring innovative cross -border financial supervision.In addition, policies also intend to accelerate the construction of a new open economy system in which Shenzhen is in line with international standards, strengthen the reform of foreign exchange management, and attract more international organizations and institutions to settle in Shenzhen.
On the surface, although the policy aims to accelerate the development of the Guangdong -Hong Kong -Macao Greater Bay Area, it is sensitive to the timing, which will inevitably make people Lenovo with Hong Kong.Hong Kong has long been an independent customs zone as a global economy and international financial center for a long time. It is also an important international portal on the mainland. It has attracted countless international companies to choose to set up an operation headquarters in Hong Kong.
However, it is recently affected by a wave of people's struggle movements, and it is afraid that it will deeply impact its international financial center role.The main reasons include: the people's independence of the rule of law in Hong Kong, the impact of political resistance, including paralysis airports, bank extrusion and other commercial behaviors, which can cause social confidence crisis, lead to the risks such as evacuation of multinational enterprises, and outflow of funds.
Regardless of whether the central government of the mainland deliberately cultivates some cities to replace the role of Hong Kong, such as Shanghai or future Shenzhen, such as the differences between culture and legal system, there is still a significant gap in these cities to replace Hong Kong in the short term.Therefore, Hong Kong is facing the most fundamental challenge today is its own internal problems: whether the Hong Kong government has the ability to quickly resolve political struggles, especially more to solve the fight against the struggle.The uncertainty of Hong Kong prospects.To put it simply, Hong Kong may not need to worry about competitive pressure from external cities. It is also the key to maintaining foreign investment after this wave of disturbances.
At the level of influence on Taiwan, due to the separation of the industrial structure of both parties in Hong Kong and Taiwan, Taiwan is dominated by the manufacturing industry. The degree of industrial chain with the Hong Kong service industry is low, so the economic and trade shock of Taiwan has limited impact.However, for Taiwanese businessmen, Hong Kong's functions are mostly as fundraising centers.Taiwanese businessmen advance to the mainland and are commonly used as the headquarters in Hong Kong to raise funds and retain funds locally.However, at this moment facing political disturbances in the region, financial uncertainty has increased greatly. In the future, the attraction of establishing headquarters in Hong Kong will be greatly reduced.
In the same way, many multinational companies will re -consider the investment layout in the Asia -Pacific region outside Hong Kong in the mentality of risk aversion. Especially when the US -China trade war is tense and confrontation, it is expected to be highly liberalized, emphasizes efficiency, and abide by the rule of law in the rule of lawSingapore is most likely to be a substitute for Hong Kong. Taiwan has relatively limited attractive attraction to foreign capital due to financial foreign exchange control.
(Author Wu Jiaxun, Deputy Director of the Mainland China Institute of China)
