United Daily News Agency
Sino -US trade negotiations broke the negotiations in Shanghai at the end of July. Trump (Trump) immediately announced the revenge that from September 1, a 10 % tariff was imposed on Chinese goods of $ 300 billion ($ 415.7 billion).However, less than half a month later, the US government announced that the increase in taxes for more than half of the goods will be delayed until December 15th; then, the ban on Huawei will also postpone the 90 -day wide limit.The interpretation of the outside world is that Trump blinked first in the confrontation with ... this time.
The US -China trade war has been played for more than a year, and every time it is Trump's call, it is not prestigious; China has been killed step back step by step, with a gray face.On the surface, the mainland economy is indeed greatly affected, not only slowing down. The GDP growth in the second quarter of this year is only 6.2 %, the lowest in 27 years; many foreign capital evacuated from China to avoid danger.Earlier this month, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar exceeded the seven mark; Trump also added a shot and accused Beijing control the exchange rate.However, the International Monetary Fund immediately faced the United States, saying that China did not interfere with the exchange rate.
The problem is that Trump's deficiency and endless combat strategy not only made Beijing's chaos, but also killed the global trade order and lost balance.More importantly, for many years, the US manufacturing industry has moved out, and many people's livelihood consumer products are no longer produced in the country; Trump has repeatedly added tariffs on Chinese goods. Although the wave last year was absorbed by traders and manufacturers, this wave this year will be passed on to the US consumption.By.Trump has continuously taken punishment measures. Despite the opponent, the Wall Street stock market is turbulent, and many American companies and investors are deeply affected. Now even American consumers will be harmed.
The presidential election will be held on November 3 next year. If voters are highly dissatisfied with Trump's economic policy and the public and enterprises will be harmed, it will inevitably be not conducive to his re -election.This is a reality that Trump cannot face.Under the situation of slowing global economy, the performance of the United States was originally stronger; but recently, the US stock market has repeatedly plummeted. Recently, the bond market has also experienced the phenomenon of colonial rates, which affects investor confidence.Nowadays, Trump seems to be unable to bear internal pressure, and he has to postpone the tax increase of laptop, mobile phones and other consumer products to the Christmas season, so as to avoid the outbreak of the American people's dissatisfaction.
The biggest problem with Trump is to let the policy be improvised with their emotions, which will only be released, but they will not be collected.He played very well in the US -China trade war, but now when he encountered a domestic election, he soon found that his policy had lost its balance.In terms of trade war, he can use all the means, and the effect that can be achieved is not the same.Taking agricultural products as an example, China has reduced the purchase of American soybeans and other purchases to Russia and Brazil.This caused the agricultural prefecture that originally supported Trump was not injured. Once the public opinion turned, it would endure its election.
After the RMB broke the seven, the U.S. government immediately played China as a exchange rate manipulating country, but from the perspective of the floating situation of the RMB, experts all believed that Beijing had no intention of having a currency war.On the contrary, Trump compressed the Fed's interest rate reduction in order to stimulate the US economy.The Federal Reserve is an independent agency. It still cannot help but reduce the interest rate cuts. It is not enough to be scolded by Trump, and threatened to continue taxes.The Wall Street stock market responded strongly, spitting back all the increase in interest rate cuts the previous day, and fell deeper.On the one hand, Trump accused China of manipulating the exchange rate, but he compressed the Federal PRRC to reduce interest rates to lower the exchange rate of US dollars. Isn't this not disguised to manipulate the exchange rate?
Sino -US relations have many aspects. From the perspective of Beijing, they are unwilling to let trade disputes pollute other aspects; however, Trump uses other issues to pressure economic and trade.In the past, he operated Huawei's topic with a hand -over, but now he uses Hong Kong's counterfeit China demonstrations. It is mentioned that the Hong Kong border has a collection of the PLA. Hope ... can be involved in the protesters.On the Taiwan issue, military sales are used.The United States has recently announced that it is to submit a $ 8 billion against Taiwan F-16V fighter military sales case to the National Association for review, which is Trump's proof of Taiwan's military sales as a bargaining chip.
It is worth noting that the inverted US yield recently caused the Dow Jones Index to plummet.Since 1954, after 10 curves inverted, economic depression has occurred nine or two years later.In other words, when Trump seek re -election, the economy is bad.Next, people will see the anxious Trump, and make a series of light and reckless actions, causing more unpredictable changes.Trump is arrogant, but he wants to go smoothly through the steel cable between the trade war and the election campaign.
