Author: Shao Shanbo
Graham Allison, a professor of Harvard University, who has actively promoted the concept of Shuxidd, has moved frequently in the United States, China, and Asia in the past two or three years to sell his works.Although he has repeatedly denied that he is intensifying the contradiction between China and the United States, he claims that he only raises questions and sought solutions, saying that he also expects that China and the United States will not fight, but he has tried to promote the information of the United States and China in the past two or three years.Regarding issues, there have never been any ways to avoid traps, which objectively increased the fear of the United States for development in China, and promoted the trend of the United States to prevent and comprehensively anti -China.
The Xiu Xiddus trap is a historical phenomenon summarized by ancient Greek historians and thinkers, Schumide, with Sparta and Athens as an example.In the 5th century BC, Spartan, who was gradually declining, faced the stronger Athens, declared war on Athens under the fear of decline. After a 30 -year war, Sparta finally defeated Athens and accelerated the decline of the Greek civilization., But the victory of Sparta also went to the end after both defeats.Based on this history, the United States is similar to that of Sparta more than 2000 years ago.In order to maintain its status of its global independent hegemon, the United States has started to fight China in all aspects in many fields. However, the current war is no longer the soldiers on the battlefield.war.As far as the behavior of the United States is concerned, isn't it the question of whether it will fall into the trap of Xishid, but it has already fallen into the trap unilaterally.
The current situation, more accurately, should be the global hegemon of the United States as the rising China. In the face of the rise of the rise, it is believed that the latter challenges its own dominant status and deliberately and one -sidedly the main reason for its decline.In the high degree of fear, China is used as a challenger to completely block it and suppress it.Faced with the United States step by step, China has no choice. In the absence of reluctance and trying to avoid and forbearance, it was dragged into the US -lord's thinking trap and was forced to deal with it helplessly.
China and the United States are unlikely to be fully armed conflict
In fact, the historical lesson of Xunxidd's trap has a very limited demonstration role in today's world.In the era of nuclear weapons, the two major nuclear martial arts conflicts are unimaginable. This is a global consensus formed after World War II.However, since the Cold War, the US -Soviet (later the US -Russian) Agent Warr war (Proxy War) has never stopped.At present, the hotspots of military friction between China and the United States are the South (China) Sea, Taiwan Strait, China -India, China -Vietnam, the Philippines, the Korean Peninsula, and the Diaoyu Islands controversial in China and Japan.However, the contradictions involved in these hot areas are currently under the control of China and its opponents, and the situation has improved in recent years. In addition, the current US international attitude is very high, the policy is erratic, and the government lacks credit.His strong neighbors are in conflict.Therefore, the United States wants to engage in military confrontation with China through allies.
The situation facing Sino -US relations will not be like a historical lesson proposed by Professor Ellison, that is, the two major powers are likely to have a comprehensive armed conflict.The world today is not the same as the world after World War II. It is impossible to repeat the history of the two camps of the two major camps during the Cold War of the United States and the Soviet Union in the 1950s and 1960s.In the same way, whether it is economy or international politics, there are me and me among you.So what will happen to the United States to maintain its own hegemonic position and suppress China's development?
The condition for becoming hegemony is that the economic volume is large enough.In this comparison, China and the United States have been drawn with the United States in 2014 according to the purchasing power, and now it is obviously advanced (Professor Ellison usually first affirms that China is now the first in his speech).Based on the total production (GDP), China is still behind, but about 60 % of the United States, but all aspects, including the United States itself, recognize that the total production of China will surpass the United States within 10 to 15 years.This difficulty in reversal is also the reason for American fear.And supporting the security and continuous expansion of economic entities depends on military, technology and finance.To slow down and curb China's development, the United States can only start from these three aspects.
Suppression of China's technology development is the most important purpose in the United States
In military, technology and finance, the first technology.The status of the great country's hegemony must be based on its leading technology and dominant position, and technology leaders can maintain its economic and military priority.Losing the dominance in the field of science and technology, in the long run, it is difficult to continue to lead in economy and military.
With the United States on the grounds of national security, ZTE first, and then Huawei, has revealed the United States' core means of China.Suppressing China's science and technology development is the most important purpose of the United States, because China is still behind the United States, and the United States has continuously rendered China's so -called military expansion. In fact, it is only used as an excuse for scaring and attracting allies.It is really afraid of China's military deployment outside it.It is true that there is a military competition in China and the United States, but the United States may not think that China's military strength has threatened her itself.
Although the current trade issues between China and the United States are hot spots on the public, the importance is insignificant compared to scientific and technological issues.Judging from the issues raised in the trade negotiations between the United States, it should be seen that the United States has not only paid attention to trade issues.The negotiation list proposed by the United States originally included non -trade issues such as intellectual property, technological transfer, and national industrial / scientific and technological policies (including Made in China 2025).The United States first issued a $ 50 billion (S $ 69.4 billion) products that levied tariffs, and its core was also the export of scientific and technological products in China.Therefore, even if the negotiations are successful in the United States, this part of the tariff will not give up, which has become a difficult knot in the current negotiations.
In addition, the United States has long begun to suppress the American scientists who participated in the Chinese Thousand Talents Program. Recently, students who have suspended and reduced the university to stop and depend on the United States to study technology.They all reflect that suppressing China's scientific and technological development is the core action of the United States to suppress the Chinese policy.
Can China and the United States maintain financial relations and not optimistic
The financial field is another potential contradiction in Sino -US relations, and it may be a real major risk.This field has a significant relationship with Hong Kong.Financial's maintenance of the dominant position of the US dollar in the world is the key pest of the US hegemony (the so -called Achilles Heel).At present, this problem is not on the countertops of the relationship between China and the United States. It may be because China is very restrained in this area. It is bound to be called the internationalization of the RMB, but there is no action that challenges the US dollar status.Of course, the United States is very concerned about it, and pays close attention to China's every move in this area.In the case of flames of Sino -US relations, financial relations have basically remained calm, which is extremely abnormal.The United States did not announce that it was not as impulsive as it was on other issues after the RMB exchange rate was broken in the exchange rate of the US dollar.
But whether China and the United States can maintain peace on the financial front for a long time are not optimistic.The main reason is that the United States continues to weapon the US dollar and uses its special status in global economic activities as a tool to strongly promote its political purpose worldwide.In order to protect their own interests, this forces other countries to avoid the use of the US dollar, such as the efforts to make payment channels in many European countries to maintain some trade with Iran who do not violate US sanctions.For example, the United States adheres to the special status of the US dollar as a means to implement its hegemony policy. Small and medium -sized countries have no way to obey.But large or large economies such as the European Union, Japan, Russia, India, and China cannot ignore it.The response actions of these countries will attract US countermeasures.Therefore, unless the United States abandon relevant means, you will only deteriorate when you come and go.Excessive behavior in the United States may be self -dug grave for the US dollar dominance. The detonated problems in the process will cause great shocks to the world, and Hong Kong will be the first to be the first to the exchange rate mechanism.
Hong Kong is more complicated and fragile
China does not want to be the boss, but does not want to fully obey today's boss, but insists on its own development path.China wants to make a complete discussion for its own positioning and resolve the other party's fearThere are difficulties.... It is even more urgent to build our own right to speak.American culture advocates competition. The long -term superiority has made its country very good. It just wants to be the first and never be willing to be the second. It is inevitable that it is inevitable that the United States falling into Xishiddde's trap is inevitable.This is the current situation of China and the United States.In other countries and regions of the world, whether it is the European Union, Russia, India, or Southeast Asian countries, it is difficult to put themselves out of their own ways. They can only find their own position in the contradictions of these two countries.The situation in Hong Kong is no exception, because Hong Kong is within one country in China, but it is more complicated and fragile in addition to the mainland.
How the above situation will affect the world, there are many ways to say.The former US Treasury Secretary Paulson and Guo Taiming both believed that there would be two parallel systems, but there was no relationship between the two.Professor Aireson recently proposed his concept of solution, suggesting that China and the United States should establish a competitive partnership (Competitive Partnership), but did not explain what the relationship between competition and partners, and did not point out what areas the two are in competition.In which areas are partners.Yang Yuan of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences proposed the concept of Bipolar Co-Ruling, which is no different from Chiamerica many years ago, and this concept has not been recognized by China.Professor Wang Xiangsui University of Beijing Aeronautics and Astronautics pointed out the prospects of China, the United States, and Europe, but failed to explain the relationship between the three.It is impossible for the world to maintain a single pole, which is an inevitable trend; but in the future, it will still be difficult to predict the relationship between the poles or poles.At present, Sino -US relations and the global changes that are affected by the two still owe a suitable title and symbol and content.
