Ming Pao News Agency
Since the United States officially withdrawn from the 42 -year medium -range missile treaty with Russia on August 2, US Secretary of Defense Esper publicly stated that he hopes to deploy land -based medium -range missiles in the Asia -Pacific region, which has caused a strong response from China and Russia.The nerves of many countries in the Asia -Pacific region.Although Esper later clarified that the incident has not yet entered the stage of discussing the deployment of deployment, from the various statements of the United States, it can be seen that the United States withdraws from China Treaty and wants to deploy land -based medium -range missiles in the Asia -Pacific deployment., Testing both China's arms technology and China's diplomatic wisdom.
Make up for the lack of marine and air strike power, China concentrates on the development of missiles
The so -called medium -range missile is relative to short -range missiles and long -distance intercontinental missiles.The InterMedIate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed by the United States and Russia stipulates that the two countries no longer save, produce or test the range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers of land-based cruising missiles and ballistic missiles.The medium -range missile is just a weapon vehicle. It can install a conventional warhead or a nuclear warhead.From the name, INF's main significance is to limit strategic nuclear weapons.Trump has threatened to withdraw from INF in October last year. The exit process was launched in February this year.Russia also announced his withdrawal, letting INF live.
There are two reasons for the United States to withdraw INF. One is that Russia has defaulted for a long time, and the other is that it has not been included in China.The former is Xiangzhuang Wujian, and the latter means Peigong.The White House National Security Consultant Bolton stated last week that China has deployed thousands of medium -range missiles. Since China is not an INF contract, they can deploy such missiles freely.However, China claims that the number of nuclear military in China is far below the United States and Russia, and it should not be pulled into the nuclear disarmament negotiations.
In fact, both China and the United States are right. The United States talks about the number of medium -range missiles in China, and China is talking about the number of Chinese nuclear warheads.The United States actually wants to limit the conventional medium -guided by China, but after all, it is a conventional weapon after all.
When the United States and the Soviet Union signed INF, China's missile technology was still backward.However, the Taiwan Strait crisis in the 1990s made the PLA deeply feel that the navy and air force had insufficient strength. There were no attack submarines and long -range bombers, and the lack of long -range accurate strike capabilities.Dongfeng 11-26 series missiles have become technical leading medium-range missiles.This method of using conventional ballistic missiles as ultra -long cannons has subverted the tradition of the theater's firepower based on air strikes, allowing the PLA to have a strong firepower advantage in the first island chain.China also pioneered anti -ship ballistic missiles, which greatly changed the form of naval battles.
In fact, although the United States is restricted by INF, it has not restrained hands and feet in China -Guidance R & D. Except for the Tomahawk cruise missiles from the sea and air, a variety of target bombs developed in the name of anti -commissioning can be turned into land -based ballistic missiles at any time.Coupled with the powerful sea and air attack system, the United States said that it has been simply the foundation in the Asia -Pacific region.However, China's land -based missiles are deployed in the local area, which is defensive and highly mobility. A launch vehicle can be launched on highways or railways; the United States's missiles, fighters, and warships in the Asia -Pacific region are mostly deployed in the allies.It is an offensive nature, high maintenance costs, huge costs, command control chains and response time.What's even more embarrassing is that these US military bases, from Guam to Japan and South Korea, are within the effective range of the PLA's medium -range missiles.
During the development of the United States Development, the two major bottle necks of Hua Ke can recommend passively and active
The United States wants to develop a guide and deploy in the Asia -Pacific region. It is facing two major bottle necks. One is the scale. Although the United States has necessary technologies, it does not mean that it can easily rebuild the conventional medium -guided force in the short term.Mass production with technology and benefits is two different things, not to mention that it is not easy to reach the same scale as China -100 Chinese guidance; the second is diplomacy. When the United States announces that it will be deployed in the Asia -Pacific region, China has a strong response and diplomacy.Fu Cong, the director of the Minister of Control, issued a statement saying that China will have to take necessary countermeasures.Asia -Pacific countries have twisted their heads of the United States, and the Philippine and Australian governments have publicly stated that they will not be deployed by the United States. South Korean politics is also worried that the scene of the introduction of the Sad anti -missile system will be sanctioned by the Chinese side.
Although Japan hopes to limit the development of Chinese missiles from its own interests, the introduction of medium -range missiles that can be equipped with nuclear warheads violate its nuclearization policy and may cause domestic opposition.In addition, Sino -Japanese relations have improved their momentum this year. The two sides have just announced a strategic dialogue of 7 years last week, showing that the two sides intend to maintain a good atmosphere for the official visit to Japan next year.It is believed that if the United States insists on deploying land -based guidance around China, it will inevitably trigger a new round of game of the geopolitical Asia -Pacific geopolitics.
Therefore, the United States deployed in the Asia -Pacific region is likely to be just shot. The main purpose is to force Beijing to participate in the new China -Guidance negotiations and use treaties to frame the Chinese development.In this regard, Russia also has an ambiguous attitude, saying that it is open.
Military control control is not only a military issue, but also political and moral issues. Even if China has sufficient reasons, it may eventually become passive to refuse to discuss.China should take the initiative to expand the new central guidance negotiations to the military control structure of the theater, and incorporate all the conventional ship -to -air -fired cruise missiles, strategic bombers and remote attack aircraft that the United States.It is verified; and the global platforms and weapons of the contracting country should include the shield of the Skin Spear, and the weakness of the United States in the United States may break its attempt to unilaterally restrain China by borrowing the new central guidance treaty.
