Writing: Wang Ying
The India -Pakistani crisis is still being upgraded.Pakistan suspended major railway transportation services to India on August 8.Earlier, Pakistan asked India's senior commissioner in Pakistan to leave Islamabad to return to India and said that Pakistan would no longer send senior commissioners to India.On the same day, Pakistan also announced that it would close an air flight channel to India.
On August 7, Pakistan announced the downgrade with India's diplomatic relations, interrupted bilateral trade, and re -examined bilateral arrangements to submit this issue to the United Nations and Security Council.In addition, Pakistan will also support the justice struggle for the rights of self -determination on August 14th on August 14th, and set August 15 as the Black Day.
Pakistan's serial movement stems from India's decision on August 5th: On the same day, the Indian government announced the abolition of Article 370 of the Constitution and canceled the special status given to India -controlled Kashmir region before.
Over the past few decades, out of concerns that may have conflicts, no Indian government has moved in the special status of Kashmir.The breakthroughs of the Narendra Modi government will undoubtedly intensify the situation of India and Pakistan.Why did Modi touch this minefield?What do Modi get under various adventures?
The interests in front of you
From a practical perspective, this is the manifestation of Modi's promise.As early as the Prime Minister's election in 2014, Modi wrote the abolition of Article 370 of the Constitution into its own campaign program.In the election of this year (2019), the Indian People's Party owned by Modi is even more promised to cancel the special status of the state.
In the first term, Modi was in a state of check -in in political territory at the time of the Indian People's Party and the National University.And Modi won the re -election with an overwhelming victory, and the Indian People's Party, which was unique, finally had the opportunity to show his punch.Modi, who had just came to power, showed his strong man image again.
The Indian People's Party not only fulfilled his promise to voters, but also weakened the power of Muslims in the Kashmir region.According to the original constitution 370, Kashmir owns its own constitution, flag, and the independence of all affairs except diplomatic, defense and communication.In addition, it safeguarded its local territorial sovereignty by giving its permanent residents' rights and specialized rights.
Nowadays, the Modi government stripped all of these privileges and adopted the attitude of the largest Muslim Muslims in India; MDASH; Kashmir adopted an equally treated attitude with other states, especially Hindu, and will inevitably further stimulate the rise in Hindu nationalism.
Due to the large land area, the large population, multiple religion and race, India's political and social identity shows the characteristics of diversity and crushing.Hinduism accounts for four -fifths of the Indian population. The Indian People's Party where Modi is located belongs to the Indian nationalist party.
After entering the 21st century, India's economy has developed rapidly, and its economic strength has further enhanced India's sense of nation's pride. India's desire to become a big country is even more urgent.Modi hopes to establish a unified Indian identity to strengthen India and achieve influence internationally.Islam is the second largest religion in India, with 14%of the population belief in Islam.Today, the Modi government's movement of the Kashmir region is to squeeze the living space of Muslims, so as to establish a unified country.
Furthermore, considering that the Kashmir region is mainly Muslims and enjoys a high degree of autonomy, the Indian government's difference in control over this region can be imagined.The religious consistency makes India -controlled Kashmir and Pakistan a natural sense of closeness.India recovers the privileges of the Kashmir region and is under the scope of the central jurisdiction. India can use this to cut off the connection between Pakistan and India -controlled Kashmir region and control Pakistan's military warrior in the local agent war.
Break strategic dilemma
According to the submitted by the Indian People's Party Chairman and the Ministry of the Indian Ministry of the Interior, Amit Shah, in the Federal Institute (that is, the upper court), the original Indian control Kashmir region will be divided into two, becoming the Kashmir central area and the Latalak Central Government DirectJurisdiction.This involves not only the border differences of Indiabak, but also involved the border situation of China and India.
On August 5th, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China emphasized that China opposed the stance of the Chinese territory in the western section of the Sino -Indian border into the scope of administrative jurisdiction.For the outside world, New Delhi is undoubtedly exterior.But for Modi, this historic move is probably not only the benefits of reality.From a strategic perspective, this can also change the passive situation of its own double -line operations.
Since 1948, the former Kashmir Turkish area is an important battlefield for the India -Pakistan War and the Sino -Indian War.After decades of war and negotiations, this region is basically in the trend of the Three Kingdoms of China and India: Pakistan controls the northwest (free Kashmir and northern Kashmir), India controls the central and southern regions (Jammo and Kashmir and KashmirChina, China controlled the Northeast (Aksaichen and Karakon Corridor).Under such a situation, India is under pressure from Pakistan and China at the same time in India -controlled Kashmir regions.
India wants to break such a two -line combat situation.In the past many years, China has basically controlled the initiative with India on the Western Line, and only 450 square kilometers of Barragas has not been solved.In 2013, the tent confrontation between China and India in the Aksai Kylot Restaurant ended with India's retreat.Although this incident did not completely resolve bilateral boundaries, it also provided a reference for the resolution of disputes in China and India in the future.
Under the controllable situation of the China -India border situation, India places the Indian -controlled Kashmir region as the two places, and can concentrate on Pakistan in the Yamo and Kashmir region.In this way, the situation where India and China and Pakistan were confrontation at the same time.
In the deeper level, India's concerns are not just the border disputes with Pakistan and China, but the changes in the situation of the Kashmir region and even the entire South Asian region.New Derry has the possibility of taking the opportunity to alleviate the opportunity to relieve due to the China -Pakistan Economic Corridor for many years.
Beijing proposed the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013 and pushed the China -Pakistan Economic Corridor with Pakistan.To this day, this corridor has been quite effective, and the Pakistani military has also explicitly stated that it will escort the construction of the China -Pakistan Economic Corridor.When Indo -Pakistan also launched the agent war in Kashmir, Baluchi and other places, New Delhi was necessary to find a breakthrough after being stressed.
Data show that Modi has always hoped to show the status of India in South Asia after taking office: he used to treat neighboring countries with a rare attitude, invited all South Asian countries including Pakistan to participate in the inauguration ceremony.Almost visiting South Asian countries.
However, this series of actions did not jump out of the starting point of India centered on New Delhi.This core has gradually increased the distance between India and countries around South Asia.The China -Pakistan Economic Corridor has not been adjusted because of India, and then looked at other countries in South Asia. Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, etc., who had looked at India's face, had sought cooperation with Beijing.
In 2017, the Tonglang confrontation made New Delhi discover the gap between reality and fantasy.Fortunately, Beijing has always had a pre -judgment of the Western Line on the South Asian issue, and this stable attitude of China gave Modi a chance.In addition, the United States, Russia and other countries are also interested in traditional issues such as India and Pakistan.At this point, New Delhi borrowed military management and controlled Kashmir. Showing a breakthrough in regional affairs showed his accurate judgment of the regional situation. The history of India's fighting in Kashmir was over.
