Social Theory August 6, 2019
The 12th round of Sino -US economic and trade high -level consultations that were restarted for nearly three months were moved to Shanghai from July 30th to 31st. Previously, all circles did not expect to make substantial progress.On August 1, US President Trump broke out, announcing that from September, it will impose a 10%tariff on the remaining $ 300 billion in Chinese goods to further exacerbate the conflict between China and the United States.Trump has been dissatisfied with the progress of Sino -US trade negotiations. According to his statement, if he cannot reach an agreement, he may increase tariffs to 25%or even higher.
As soon as the negotiations were over, the tariff was increased, which was equivalent to declared the breakout agreement reached by the Sino -US leaders at the end of June.It is unexpected or unexpected, and it is no longer important. The key is whether the next negotiation door has been completely closed.Although the two parties have agreed to hold the next round of high -level consultations in the United States in September, due to the new round of tariffs on the new round of improving tariffs, almost all Chinese products exported to the United States, China and the United States can be frankly dialogue on economic and trade issues next.It has become a question.
After the new round of negotiations, the US trade representative Leitzizer and Treasury Minister Mnuchin told Trump that China's negotiation position has not changed significantly.Since the core of this trade negotiation is that China has improved the purchase of the United States, China does not make a commitment to the number of procurement in the United States, which is the reason for Trump to impose tariffs immediately.When Trump re -launched the trade negotiations, the two sides issued a post warning: If I win the election, we have to talk harder than now hellip; hellip; maybe a worse agreement or no agreement at all.
The trade war has become the norm of China and the United States, or a long -lasting war that affects the global economy. If the United States will impose more tariffs on China, it is impossible for the two parties to have a major breakthrough in the next negotiations.One condition for China to reach an agreement is to ask the United States to cancel all tariffs; while the United States requires China to promise to amend the law, make structural changes, and abandon the government's subsidies for enterprises, that is, to end some distorted market practices.At the following follow -up meeting, China and the United States have actually had no common foundation, so it is very low to obtain major breakthroughs and reach a comprehensive agreement.
There are many disputes in China and the United States recently, not only involving trade issues, but also complex topics involving geopolitics and international leadership.It is impossible for the two countries to discuss trade and political issues separately, but to resolve each other's disagreements and meet their own interests. So far, it seems that there is no dawn.Trump also knows that China will not give up in important principles, but because insisting on a strong position in China is conducive to re -election, Trump must be tough to the end.And even if Trump has lost his re -election, any Democratic presidential candidate comes to power, it will not guarantee that the trade war will be stopped, and Trump -style tough policies will continue to be promoted.
From the perspective of Trump itself and the domestic hardships in the United States, China has many unreasonable commitments.Trump also believes that China may want to drag the trade agreement after the US election in November 2020, hoping that a Democratic candidate who is more likely to deal with will win the election.If the Sino -US trade negotiations can reach certain agreements or achieve some results before the 2020 US election, which will be unexpected by the international community.
Because both China and the United States have unpredictable factors, the trade war may be delayed longer. Once the tariff war is further upgraded, the tangled situation will undoubtedly harm the economy of the two countries.China is the world's factory's status without guarantee, and the US economy may decline. Among them, the greater debt snowballs will detonate the US fiscal crisis.In mid -February of this year, the first time in the history of the U.S. public debt, it exceeded $ 22 trillion for the first time, reaching US $ 2.201 trillion.
Sino -US trade negotiations have repeatedly broken the situation, and negative impacts have actually emerged one by one in the past three months. The predictions of various known data and international organizations have pointed out that the deteriorating trade war has led to a slowdown in the economic slowdown.The exports of China's itself and Asian countries have fallen sharply, and the US economic growth has not achieved the goals set by Trump last year.China -US trade friction has sounded the global economic alert. China and the United States must urgently eliminate doubts, re -establish mutual trust, and seek breakthroughs as soon as possible.At that time, many countries will face serious economic crises.
