FT Social Review: The US -China trade war is entering the unknown waters.Trump's assumptions about China will be proven to have been proven to be wishful thinking.Both sides need to re -evaluate their respective positions.
After President Donald Bull; Donald Trump published a series of good tweets on Twitter, the hope of making breakthroughs in the US -China trade negotiations held in Shanghai last week became slim.He subsequently announced that he had a 10%tariff plan for the remaining $ 300 billion in US -U.S. -US commodities from September 1, which shattered the hope of breaking through trade negotiations to make breakthroughs.The latest tariffs imposed will cover consumer products for the first time.As more and more data show that the global economy slows down, Trump's efforts to separate China from the global trading system are producing ripple effects.
The trade war is entering unprecedented unknown waters.Trump's assumptions about China will be proven to have been proven to be wishful thinking.On the contrary, Beijing refused to compromise and eliminated the possibility of immediately concession.If no side will not be soft, this trade war will only continue, and the world economy will be dragged down.
Trump's latest tariff measures show that the trust between the two big nations has collapsed.Just a few months ago, people are also expected to reach a trade agreement on both parties, which is based on a good working relationship between Trump and China to a certain extent.
But this is not a real estate negotiation in Manhattan.It now involves a fundamental re -evaluation of the relationship between the old superpowers and the rising opponents.
As the differences between the two sides are increasingly obvious, Trump and China have fewer room for politics.Trump found that he had been passive by Democrats on trade issues.At the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), his aggressive U.S. priority strategy won some concessions and generated the renamed USMCA.China is a different level of magnitude.It was only more than a year before the US presidential election, and Trump saw the Democratic opinion more aggressive protective remarks than him.In China, he is facing increasingly rising nationalist emotions, and he is sometimes happy to promote this emotion.The immunity of challenges may not be as great as observed.
In the United States, the conditions for debate around China as a rising country have deteriorated.There are many claims about the New Cold War. The focus is on the military reserve competitions in the fields of artificial intelligence.This winner's attitude is dangerous.People who have a calm mind should consider new road traffic rules for network security and network weapons.
In Beijing, those who think that as long as Trump steps down, everyone who is good at everything has underestimated the depth of this emotion in the hearts of business and policy makers.Whether it is intentional or unintentional, Trump has released the power that he will be difficult to control.
Some people may not help Washington that the US economy will eventually win in the tariff war.From the middle period, this may be correct, but the cost will be high.Cutting China from the trade supply chain will hurt Beijing, but it will also cause technology to separate.The domestic labor market, which was newly added in July 164,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to a 49 -year low in April, may have toughness.However, the dilemma of the US manufacturing industry MDASH; MDash; so far for two consecutive quarters to shrink MDASH; mdash; is an indisputable fact.
The status quo before returning to the trade war seems difficult.Both sides need to re -evaluate their respective positions.Trump should adjust its aggressive unilateralism and cooperate with other economies to pressure China.China should promise to make limited concessions to foreign investors and intellectual property rights.It is important to do something.Both sides have turned to tough, which will cause shock waves around the world.
Translator/He Li
