Shen Jianguang: The expansion of internal and stable foreign trade is an important starting point for stability.Institutional reform and opening up are the focus of economic work in the second half of the year; this has some challenges in the short term, and it is important development opportunities in the long run.
On July 30, the Central Political Bureau meeting was held in the second quarter.The Central Political Bureau meeting in late July is a key node for high -level research and judging the economic situation in the first half of the year, and deploying economic work in the second half of the year.In the first half of this year, the changes in the internal and external environment became more and more complicated. In the context of China's economic fluctuations significantly. First, in the context of the first quarter, the economic operation was better than expected in the background of the Sino -US trade consultation and easing policy.It is optimistic, and no longer emphasizes the six stability, and the statement continues to fight the three major battles.
However, in the second quarter, the Sino -US trade negotiations unexpectedly discounted and the marginal policy tightened, and the downlink pressure on the Chinese economy appeared again.In this context, the Politburo Meeting in the second quarter was re -mentioned by the six stability work. At the same time, the judgment of the economic situation also significantly increased from the market confidence in the Politburo Conference in the first quarter., Must increase the sense of sorrow.
In addition, in the context of external Sino -US trade frictions, the Politburo meeting needs to rely on expanding domestic demand, focusing on the launch of the rural market, multi -purpose reform measures to expand consumption, increase the weak links of urban and new infrastructure network infrastructure investment, and the new information network infrastructure investmentWaiting for measures.In terms of real estate policies, we still insist on the positioning of housing and residential, highlighting that real estate is not used as a means of short -term economic stimulus.At the same time, expanding opening up and promoting financial supply -side reforms, the science and technology board insisted on expressing the expression of information disclosure as the core, etc., and continued the intention of deepening reform and opening up to release economic vitality.
Expanding domestic demand, stabilizing foreign trade is an important starting point for stability
In the second quarter, the Politburo meeting mentioned that the current economic development of China is facing new risks. The decline in the domestic economy has increased. It is necessary to enhance the awareness of worry and be good at turning the crisis.According to the current economic data, since the second quarter, China's main indicators such as consumption, investment, exports, and industrial enterprise profits have indeed performed poorly. Since JulyThe performance of high -frequency data such as the price index is also not optimistic, showing that the economy is still in the downward range.
Among the many economic indicators, the author believes that the trading situation in the second half of the year is the most worthy of attention.The reason is: First, the impact of the US tariff impact of 200 billion products in China may be further released in the second half of the year.With reference to the negative impact of 25%of the 25%tariffs in the early period, that is, China's exports to the United States in the United States in the first half of the year decreased by 40%, and it is expected that the export of 200 billion commodities may be further declined.
The second is to become increasingly unsustainable.In the first half of 2019, China's exports to ASEAN countries rose against the trend, with a cumulative increase of 7.9%. Among them, Vietnam increased by more than 10%, but a considerable part of them were transferred to US export products. In the first 5 months of 2019, VietnamThe import of imports from China has increased by 4.71 billion US dollars, and the export of US exports has increased by 4.94 billion US dollars in the same period, which is equivalent to the same size, indicating that there may be a considerable scale of Chinese products indirectly exported to the United States through Vietnam.As the United States strengthens the supervision of Vietnamese goods exports and includes Vietnam in the list of exchange rate manipulation countries, it is expected that this transfer phenomenon is difficult to last.
Third, the major economies are close to the apex of the cycle, the growth momentum is weak, and the external demand is restricted.For example, the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter of the United States fell sharply to 2.1%, and leading indicators such as durable goods orders and PMI have also experienced downward trend; European economic growth has grown slowly, Brexit is suspended in Brexit, and monetary policy space is limited; Japan's growth is also close to stagnation.Weak foreign needs may directly drag down China's future exit.
Based on this, the Politburo Work Conference in the second quarter specifically mentioned effective response to economic and trade frictions, and doing a good job of six stability, showing that stabilizing foreign trade will be an important starting point for the sixth stability of the second half of the year.In the context of unclear trade prospects, the potential of deepening domestic demand is equally significant.Combined with the deployment of the State Council Executive Meeting on July 10, the deployment of foreign trade measures is expected to continue to reduce the total level of import tariffs in the second half of the year, improve the export tax refund policy, and accelerate the tax refund progress. It is still a policy guarantee under external impact.In addition, speeding up the pace of negotiations and reaching a staged agreement with the United States at the end of the year at the end of the year, it is also of great significance to China -US and global foreign trade prospects.
Active fiscal policy is the focus of counter -cyclical regulation
Considering the current downward pressure of China's economy, in order to ensure the sixth stability, the Politburo Meeting in the second quarter continued the active fiscal policy proposed at the Politburo Conference in the first quarter of the Politburo Conference.Looking forward to the future, it is expected that active finance will have the following force:
First, continue to implement large -scale tax cuts and fees.According to the data of the State Administration of Taxation, the country ’s cumulative tax reduction and fees were increased by 11,709 in the first half of this year, of which the value -added tax reform was 436.9 billion yuan, the inclusive policy of small and micro enterprises was 116.4 billion yuan, and the two -step reform of personal income tax was superposed.307.7 billion yuan.Till billion tax cuts have provided important support for changes in the internal and external environment. The scale of tax cuts and fees in the second half of the year will still be significantly higher than in previous years.
Secondly, the source of infrastructure funds is stabilized and the role of infrastructure supports the economy.In the recent period of time, the progress of the special bond issuance has accelerated significantly. In the first half of the year, the local bonds were issued 1.39 trillion yuan, accounting for 60 % of the new special bond limit in 2019.Allowing special bonds as capital cents for major projects, infrastructure supplementary shortcomings are expected to improve in the third quarter.In terms of project selection, this meeting emphasizes that infrastructure investment in the second half of the year will focus on shortcomings such as the reconstruction of urban old communities, urban parking lots, urban and rural cold chain logistics facilities construction, and a new type of information network in the background of 5G commercial backgrounds.Infrastructure construction field.
Furthermore, continue to support SME financing.The Politburo meeting emphasized the enhancement of the medium and long -term financing of manufacturing and private enterprises. Recently, many ministries and commissions such as the Ministry of Finance also issued a notice on the pilot cities of the comprehensive reform of private and small and micro enterprises in the pilot cities of the comprehensive reform of private and small and micro enterprises.In the special funds of inclusive financial development, 2 billion yuan will be arranged each year to support pilot cities. The capital supplements of small and private enterprise credit risk compensation, compensation or government financing guarantee institutions for pilot city financial institutions are used, which reflects the second half of the year.The support of the micro -enterprise will still increase.
In addition, pay more attention to the support of the people's livelihood. In this way, the Politburo meeting once again mentioned the policy of implementing employment priority, emphasizing the employment of key groups such as college graduates, migrant workers, and retired soldiers.Since this year, although the urban registration investigation rate is still stable, many employment data show that the current employment pressure is significantly rising.For example, the PMI employment score continuously hit a record low in succession. In June, the manufacturing employee index was only 46.9%; the Chinese employment market prosperity index (CIER) jointly released by Renmin University of China and Zhilian also performed poorly.In the context of stabilizing employment, the arrangement of policies in the second half of the year will increase significantly on corporate social security downgrade, unemployment insurance return, and strengthening employment training.
Finally, the state -owned assets are encouraged to transfer social security funds to revitalize the stock funds to supplement the pressure of fiscal expenditure.In the first half of this year, under the background of tax cuts and fees, the pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure was also increasing. Data from the Ministry of Finance showed that the cumulative national public fiscal revenue in the first half of the year was only 3.4%year -on -year, while the expenditure growth rate was as high as 10.7%.In this context, the fiscal policy in the second half of the year will emphasize the open source and throttling through various ways.For example, the current budget deficit adjustment and special debt expansion windows still exist; strengthening taxes and fees and enlarged tax bases must be gradually advanced; in July, the Ministry of Finance disclosed the latest progress of the Social Security Fund for Social Security Fund. It is expected that 59 enterprises at the central level are plannedThe total capital of the state -owned capital is about 660 billion yuan, and the Social Security Fund is expected to accelerate the implementation of the Social Security Fund. In addition, revitalizing the capital funds is also a channel to alleviate the pressure of capital.
Improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and prevent financial risks
In terms of monetary policy, the Politburo meeting in the second quarter emphasized that the stable monetary policy must be tight and moderate to maintain a reasonable liquidity, and the second quarterly meeting of the central bank also said that the currencyPolicies will focus on innovation and improvement of macro -control, and to implement counter -cyclical adjustments in a timely manner. It is expected that monetary policy will continue to continue the structure of loose structure in the second half of the year.Specifically reflected in:
On the one hand, the currency authorities will still rely on targeted tools and increase the use of innovative tools at the same time, maintain the market liquidity reasonable and abundant, and strive to dredge the policy transmission mechanism, and continue to target issues such as small and medium -sized enterprises.On the one hand, the recent weakening of inflation pressure and the interest rate reduction cycle of the world (especially the United States) may open or give more room for monetary policy, and there is a possibility of reduction and interest rate cuts in the second half of the year.
Of course, the marginal relaxation of monetary policy does not mean to put water in the water. Focusing on the rational monetary policy transmission mechanism, the work that adhere to the structural deleveraging will still be the focus of the second half of the year.For example, in order to alleviate the difficulty of water pipe rust facing monetary policy, the recent interest rate and rail reform have a significant acceleration trend.The loan market quotation interest rate mechanism can better give play to the guiding role of the loan market quotation interest rate in actual interest rate formation.In the author's opinion, accelerating interest rates are of great significance for reducing financing costs and dredging interest rate transmission mechanisms.
In addition, preventing and resolving the risks of small and medium -sized banks, the normalization of real estate regulation, deleveraging of corporate departments, and local government debt management and control are still the focus.For example, at the end of May, the inclusion of the incident of the Bian Shang Bank's taking over the incident on the market is far -reaching. Its direct impact is to break the hierarchy of the industry just redeeming the expectations, impact the currency market, and once caused the liquidity.May accelerate the surface.
The risk prevention of the real estate market is also one of the key tasks in the second half of the year. The Politburo Conference still insists on housing and does not speculate in housing. It specifically mentioned that real estate is not used as a means of short -term stimulation economy.In fact, the housing market Xiaoyangchun and the land market transactions in March and April this year quickly attracted the attention of regulatory regulations. On May 17th, CBRC No. 23 will transfer to the financing side of the housing enterprise.Financing channels such as debt have tightened.
The rising leverage of corporate departments has also received attention.Data show that in the first quarter of this year, the leverage ratio of the non -financial sector in China increased by 5.1%from the end of last year. In this case, the key points of the 4 departments such as the Development and Reform Commission and other four departments in 2019 will be issued.Enterprise rsquo; clear.It is expected that the structural deleveraging in the second half of the year, and the financial supply -side reform will continue to advance.
The acceleration of reform and opening up is a breakthrough.
In the long run, in the face of a complex internal and external environment, the implementation of structural reforms and accelerating the implementation of opening measures is still a good recipe for cracking down the current economic downward pressure.In the second quarter of the Politburo Meeting, the Politburo Meeting increased its opening up and stepped up a series of major open measures.In fact, in the last time, the market can clearly feel the acceleration of the financial industry opening up. For example, on July 20, the Office of the State Council's Financial Stability Development Committee issued 11 financial industry opening measures, involving bond markets, bank insurance markets and securities marketsIn the three areas, the content covers many substantial changes in foreign financial institutions participating in the domestic financial market business, such as forward movement forward when opening, relaxation of access restrictions, etc., which shows that the central government's promotion of financial openness should be fast or late.Determination.
Institutional reform will also be an important area for the second half of the year.In the second quarter, the Politburo meeting mentioned that the science and technology board should adhere to the positioning, implement the registration system with information disclosure as the core, improve the quality of listed companies, and show that the role of science and technology board bridgehead is still the focus of promoting the capital market reform.At the same time, in terms of expanding consumption, in addition to emphasizing the effective launch of the rural market, the Politburo Conference is more focused on emphasizing more reform measures to expand consumption.
In summary, the author believes that institutional reforms and expansion are still the focus of economic work in the second half of the year.It is true that actively expanding opening up will inevitably bring some challenges in the short term, but in the long run, it is an important development opportunity.Reduce restrictions on foreign investment, increase the degree of opening up capital projects, reduce the total tariff level, strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights, and improve relevant laws such as opening up to the outside world. It is not only an objective demand for the development of China's economy to the present stage, but also the expectations of the international community for China.Taking this opportunity to cooperate with the reform of state -owned enterprises, government subsidies, and marketization of interest rate exchange rates, it is very beneficial to further release the dividend of the system, the downward pressure of hedging the economy, showing the responsibility of the country, and eliminating external doubts.
Just as the author has come out of the trough of China's economy in the previous FT column?It is said that through the stable growth and employment of counter -cyclical regulation policies; increase opening up to the outside world, and promote the implementation of various reform measures. At the same time, striving for negotiation and avoiding the decline in foreign trade has become the best choice for the current Chinese policy.
At the same time, the APEC conference in November this year will be an important time to determine the future situation. If the Sino -US trade dispute can be slowed down, China's macroeconomic economic policy can accelerate the implementation and promote structural supply -side reforms, such as interest rates and tracks.The reform of the three land, the fiscal and taxation system, etc., accelerate the opening of the economy at the same time, decide the structural problems existing in the economy, increase growth momentum, and further release the system dividend. The Chinese economy may stabilize next year.
