Peng Nian
After experiencing a tense saliva war, Sino -US relations seem to usher in a turnaround recently.First, the heads of state of China and the United States officially met at the Osaka Summit at the G20 (G20) Group of the 20th and reached a consensus on restarting trade negotiations.Don't be enemy with China.Judging from the time, the joint letter was released after obtaining a consensus at the Sino -US dollar G20 meeting, which shows that it has taken advantage of promoting the good intentions of Sino -US relations.
However, the dilemma of Sino -US relations today is frozen for three feet. It is difficult to resolve through the first -headed meeting and joint letters.Of course, this is not to recognize the positive role of eased Sino -US relations, but just remind everyone to recognize the complexity of Sino -US relations.
In the course of the development of Sino -US relations, the head of state does have significant vane.Generally speaking, the meeting of the heads of state is held smoothly, and Sino -US relations will turn in danger.However, since Trump came to power, the head of state meeting has greatly reduced the stability and even improvement of Sino -US relations.
If the Earlier meeting of the Xiut Manor also promoted Sino -US relations for a considerable period of time, the Argentine meeting at the G20 summit at the end of last year only maintained less than half a year, and it was broken by Trump's tariffs on China and Canada.As a result, the head of state meeting is getting shorter and shorter for maintaining the trend of Sino -US relations.
This obviously reflects Trump's increasing patience and more impatientness in China.Once Trump feels that China does not fulfill his consensus according to his wishes, he will sacrifice a great policy to punish China until China yields or is forced to accept the next head of state.
In addition, shortly after each round of meeting, Trump will intensify China to pressure China, trying to force China to be used in a way of increasing pressure.This head of state meets MDash; puts on MDASH in China; the head of state meets MDash; increasing the vicious circle of pressure on China will seriously weaken the promotion of the head of the head of state on eased Sino -US relations.
In this context, the G20 Summit ’s Xiut meeting on curbing the deterioration of Sino -US relations, and even reversing the actual effects of the Sino -US confrontation situation, it is difficult to achieve external expectations.In fact, at this Xite meeting, the United States only agreed to suspend new tariffs on China, and did not cancel all tariffs as China ’s wishes.In addition, if the Sino -US trade consultation fails to reach an agreement in the future, Trump will restart the trade war.
Judging from the information disclosed by Trump before, he has already made it clear about the bottom line of Sino -US trade negotiations, that is, China must return to the position that has been negotiated before, and continue to promote negotiations on this basis.The reason why China has not finalized a new trade agreement text at the last moment is also because some clauses expressed harm to China's major interests.Therefore, the last mile of the two -party trade consultation is still full of thorns, and there are still difficulties to reach an agreement in the short term.
Since the launch of the trade war of Trusti, many analysts believe that the United States has suffered more and has more affected.The intention of his words was that Trump might not be able to hold it first, and was forced to terminate the trade war.But domestic pressure has not actually become a driving force for Trump to stop the trade war.On the contrary, from the perspective of the evolution of the trade war, the United States has always dominated and controlled the entire situation.This also confirms the pressure on Trump in the United States on the side, which is not enough to force him to compromise and even close the trade war.From this perspective, the joint letter of the United States China Tong is difficult to shake Trump's tough policy for China.
Since Trump's ruling, traditional American knowledge elites have basically stood side by side, which is more difficult to affect Trump's internal affairs diplomacy.Because of this, these American scholars can only use the way of expressing joint letters in the media to question Trump's policy of China and hope that Trump can change.Although the joint letter may create a certain public opinion effect in the United States, it is difficult to make Trump's mind.What's more, the suggestions listed in the joint letter are still difficult to get rid of the brand of the institutional faction and not to Trump's appetite.
Needless to say, Sino -US relations are indeed a critical juncture and need to cool in time.The joint letter of the Sino -US dollar meeting and American scholars reflect that both parties have undergone internal pressure and have certain wishes to ease bilateral relations.Sino -US relations will have a period of breathing after the head of state.
However, the bottom line of the two sides in trade issues, and the objective reality of Trump's lack of control over the United States, still determines that the future development path of Sino -US relations is destined to be inferior.The easing and even improvement process of Sino -US relations are still difficult and long, and cannot be achieved overnight.Only by lowering the expectations of China and the United States can China be more pragmatic and patiently promoted to gradually promote the relaxation and improvement of relations between the two countries.
The author is an assistant researcher at the South China Sea Research Institute
