Since 2018, from the issue of compensation for comfort women and war in war, and fire control radar irradiation at the end of last year, to recently decided to make export control measures for high -tech materials in South Korea, it can be said that Japan and South Korea have continued to be tense.Some analysts believe that the current Japan -South Korea relations are the lowest since the normalization of diplomatic relations in 1965. The original Japanese ambassador to South Korea Matthemers believe that the two governments have lost mutual trust.
Japanese and Korean relations have always been in the reincarnation of good times after the Cold War. However, this time the deterioration of Japanese and Korean relations is different from the past.The analysis believes that the United States may make Japan and South Korea's opposition from long -term.
Theoretically, if the three -sided alliances of Japan, the United States and South Korea can be achieved, and replacing the current Japan -American, the United States and the United States and South Korea alliances, it will greatly enhance the US military existence in East Asia and form a collective security structure similar to the small NATO.The development of Japanese -South Korean relations after the war has always been accompanied by the shadow of the United States. It emphasizes that strategic interests are higher than historical issues and territorial disputes. It is the basic main line of the United States to Japan and South Korea.
For example, during the Obama administration, the United States played the role of mediation between Japan and South Korea. In Hague, U.S. President Obamat Land held a third -sided summit with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and then South Korean President Park Geun -hye, trying to strengthen the three -sided relationship.Why does the Trump administration seem to have no intervention?How does this affect the security structure of the United States in Northeast Asia?
First of all, the Trump administration broke the policy logic of the previous US government in North Korea's policy, and opened a direct dialogue between North Korea and the United States.This means that the United States has traditionally used North Korea's threats as the foundation for strengthening the cooperation of Japan, the United States and South Korea.Trump hopes that there will be a breakthrough on the North Korean nuclear issue, reducing the United States and South Korea ’s joint military exercises. China, South Korea and Russia are trying to convince the United States to reduce the sanctions on North Korea in a timely manner.As a result, Japan and South Korea's expectations for the United States in North Korea are very different.American policy results may produce zero sum of sum to Japan and South Korea.
In this regard, the United States involved in Japan and South Korea prematurely, not only the effect is very limited, but they may not be pleased on both sides.At present, it is not possible to fully judge whether the Trump administration will really change the US policy foundation for decades after the war on the Korean Peninsula.For the first time.For a long time, the foundation of maintaining Japan -US and South Korea's political security cooperation has actually only one North Korean nuclear crisis.If this foundation shakes, the security situation in Northeast Asia may change qualitatively.
For Japan, how this basic paradigm will evolve in the future. In addition, in this new round of diplomacy of the Korean Peninsula, North Korea has already discussed directly with the Sixian leaders in the six -party talks. Only Japan is still outside the bureau.In this regard, the United States is likely to re -guarantees the stability of the alliance on the one hand to ensure the stability of the alliance on the one hand, and on the one hand, and on the other hand, it promotes the opening of Japanese diplomacy in a timely manner.
Second, the efforts of the United States' tries of strengthening Japan and South Korea's relations into the three -sided alliances were unsuccessful in the past. For the Trump administration who wants to bear greater costs in the Alliance countries, the best way is to increase investment in Japan and South Korea to increase investment in bilateral methods.EssenceThe United States once tried to advance in the direction of the quasi -three -sided alliance. For example, Japan and South Korea have also reached some agreements in the fields of intelligence sharing.Defense cooperation has not appeared.
Change of power changes in Northeast Asia
At the end of last year, Japan accused the Korean navy ships of fire control radar on the Japanese Self -Defense Force aircraft.This means that the trust relationship between the Japanese and Korean military authorities is very low. To establish a three -party coordination mechanism, it is difficult to continue without trust.In addition, the real three -sided alliance means the integration of Japan, the United States and South Korea, which will not only be rebounded strongly by North Korea, but China and Russia will also fiercely react.In the current situation where China and the United States relations are already in large uncertainty, this will cause regional tensions.Therefore, the best choice in the United States is to maintain two existing bilateral alliances.
Third, the periodic tension of Japan and South Korea relations is caused by historical problems that have not been completely solved, and on the other hand, it is also the result of changes in power changes in Northeast Asia. There are few things that the United States can do in both aspects.After the war, the relationship between Japan and South Korea was promoted by the United States. At that time, the United States absolute strength advantages in the region, the economic advantages of Japan and the consistency of the awareness of security threats in the Cold War.Essence
After the Cold War, with the rise of China and the economic development of South Korea, the power pattern of Northeast Asia changed fundamentally.South Korea has become the 11th largest economy in the world. Although the United States and South Korea are still alliances, the South Korean economy has become more closely dependent on the Chinese economy.This strategically, when South Korea is considering the future situation in the peninsula, it will be more than the past and China, and reduces the proportion of the United States and Japanese factors in the past.For the United States, any direct intervention in the history of Japan and South Korea and territorial issues means that you must choose a border station, so it is a natural choice without substantial intervention.
The deterioration of this round of Japanese and North Korean relations with the United States is essentially the weakening of the United States' control over the control of these two important Northeast Asian allies; in other words, the strategic space of Japan and South Korea is expanding.In this regard, there are reasons that this may trigger a high nationalist mood between the two countries, leading to a situation where bilateral relations are not controlled, and eventually have a negative impact on the regional situation.
However, the author believes that because of the relationship with the United States, Japan and South Korea have highly lack of hard -working energy and mutual trust in the development of Japanese -South Korean relations themselves in strategic thinking.It is easy to find fast -acting medicines that rely on the United States to manage Japan and South Korea.
If it is said that during the Cold War, Japan and South Korea achieved normalization of relations under the pressure of the United States, and have a certain role in reconciliation in the region. After the end of the Cold War, it gradually shows that the United States is trying to mediate the relationship between Asian countries.
However, challenges also mean innovation and opportunities.For the United States, how to develop a security structure in Northeast Asia has gradually developed towards a more inclusive direction and promoting the development of regionalism in Northeast Asia, which will mean that the United States can maintain long -term interests and presence in the region.For Japan and South Korea, it is time to really think about how to get out of a way to really rely on the road of self -discipline and reconcile in the United States.
(The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University in Japan, and a senior researcher at the regional and Global Institute of Higher Research from Beijing Foreign Studies University in China)
The deterioration of this round of Japanese and North Korean relations with the United States is essentially the weakening of the United States' control over the control of these two important Northeast Asian allies. In other words, the strategic space of Japan and South Korea is expanding.In this regard, there are reasons that this may trigger a high nationalist mood between the two countries, leading to a situation where bilateral relations are not controlled, and eventually have a negative impact on the regional situation.
