Wang Mingyuan: The key to whether China can become a global leader is not to overcome the enclosure of the United States, but to how to resolve this wall of anxiety.
Not long ago, Professor Liu Zunyi of the Chinese University of Hong Kong pointed out in Hong Kong to attend a Financial Forum: For China, a great risk is to be isolated by the world and is excluded by the world.outer.He has also expressed similar views on many occasions this year.
Professor Liu Zunyi is a very respectful economist. He taught at Stanford University in his early years. He was one of the overseas Chinese scholars with the most suggestions for the early economic reforms in China.I often benefit from his lectures and works; he also invited master economics masters such as Nous and Ara to lecture on the Chinese University of Hong Kong, giving me the opportunity to look at the problem of China's economic transformation from a deeper perspective.In short, Professor Liu is a key figure to guide me to study the road of China's economy.
Although Professor Liu Zunyi's research is based on careful data analysis, and also puts forward a good suggestion to promote China to expand and open up, but the author still puts forward different opinions on Professor Liu Zunyi: the world will not be isolated in China. China's biggest risk is its self.Isolation in the world.
The globalization world never wants to exclude China
Globalization is a long -lasting wave. Someone traces it back to the Mongolian Empire Westward Expedition. More people tend to see the big navigation discovery at the end of the 15th century as the starting point of globalization.However, the globalization of Western Portugal's development is only the expansion of the traditional predatory empire, and there is no innovation of rules and models.In the modern sense, globalization should begin in the Netherlands and British industrial and commercial civilizations after the 17th century. Taking trade and investment as a carrier, through the promotion of openness, freedom, and rule of law, the world integrates the world into a community of interests.
From the beginning of the West, it can be said that in order to incorporate China into the world order, it is extremely used.The first formal attempt should be the Macauhlini group sent by the British King in 1793 to visit China. This is also the first modern diplomatic activity that China has contacted.In the next 19th century, the West can be said to be both beating and pulling China in order to bring China into globalization, but it is mainly for pulling.Although the two Opium War had land -cut compensation, the main purpose of Britain and France invading China was not to obtain land and plunder wealth, but to hope that China would open more markets.In addition, Westerners also set up hospitals and education in China to use bribes of nationals to change the Chinese people's perception of the West and reduce the Chinese people's resistance to joining the world order. These objectively laid the foundation for China's modern public cause.
Judging from the experience of the Westernization Movement and the New Deal of the Qing Dynasty, the West is also actively helping China in economic development and political reform.Even though the Westernization Movement was the need for self -improvement in the Qing Dynasty, it was also related to the Western promotion and support led by Britain. Many important characters in the technical layers and management were British.The two important diplomatic activities at the end of the Qing Dynasty MDASH; MDASH; Li Hongzhang's visits in 1896 and the five ministers in 1905 were also entertained by the West. The presidents, emperors, and dignitaries all came out to meet and showed them a detailed display in the West.The achievements of social development and carefully teaching experience.
Why don't the West want to allow China to be away from globalization?First of all, since the 17th century, China's population has stabilized more than one -fifth of the world, and the peak period reaches about one -third of the peak period. Naturally, it will naturally do everything possible to attract China into the market.The West has also tasted the sweetness of the Chinese market. In modern times, even if it is a limited area in the southeast coast and the participation of population participation, it has benefited the West. HSBC and AIA among Western financial giants were born in China; and in 1978In the future, China has participated in globalization. The market expansion and profit growth of many multinational companies in the West depends mainly on China.Secondly, there are many traits in Chinese civilization that are harmless to globalization. For example, the quality of hard work, learning, and self -discipline under the influence of Confucian culture for more than 2,000 years has made it easy for Chinese people to be shaped.High -quality labor and technical talents that meet the requirements of modern production; Chinese as individuals do not have too strong religious complexes, easier to recognize Western values, and are willing to accept or integrate into Western society.
Therefore, China should understand the value and status of the globalization system constructed in the West.There are no natural historical and cultural conflicts in China and the West.In globalization, China or the entire East Asian Confucian civilization area is a western partner, not an enemy.China should abandon the pessimistic thinking that has followed in modern times, and more confidently realize that it is a member of the globalization that can play an important role.
In recent years, the western unfriendly action targeting China with trade disputes as the main content is not to exclude China from world order.Western worked hard for more than a century to pull China over for more than a century, and the chairs have not been hot yet. Why should you drive away again?The West is actually changing the rules of order and maintaining its own advantage.On the other hand, changing rules may not be targeted at China, because the current world trade rules have been more than 20 years, and it has reached the change cycle. However, because of the rise of China's entry into the WTO, changes in rules are more urgent.Judging from the reform requirements proposed in the West, it is not a bad thing for China. Most of them are also the inherent requirements for further release of development potential in China. However, in order to maximize its interests, China needs to be accepted slowly.
The role of the United States in guiding China to participate in globalization
Talking about China's joining globalization, it is necessary to mention the role of the United States.The process of joining the world order since modern times can be divided into two stages: the previous stage is guided by European powers. At this stage, there are obvious imperialists. It has not created a peaceful order in East Asia. China participates in a low low.Globalization of quality and full damage; the latter stage was guided by the United States. This process began in the opening of the portal in 1898 and formed the Washington system in the 1920s.As the US -led international order emphasizes the democracy and justice of international relations, the new order is beneficial to China; coupled with the United States as an important force that can be dependent on China as the new order, China’s status in globalization also occurs in globalization.The essence changes.
Especially after World War II, thanks to the United States' to attract and support China in the establishment of a new international political and economic order, China has become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.Inheritance of the People's Republic of China, after 1978, it became China's participation in globalization, and it was also a carrier for today's international influence.In the 20th century, China could grow from a weak country to a global country. From the internal cause, it was the result of the self -awakening of national civilization. From external causes, it was related to the help of the United States.It can even be said that there are so many benefits in the new order dominated by the United States like China in the United States.
Although China once joined the Soviet camp during the Cold War to adopt a policy with the entire Western hostile, the United States' policy against China is different from the Soviet Union, hoping to guide China to enter the world order.In 1972, as the head of state in the world's most powerful country, Nixon conducted an 8 -day visit to China, which has not established diplomatic relations, which is unique in American history.Although Nixon's visit to China is a diplomatic activity, it is one of the most historic events in the 20th century because it brings a quarter of the world back to the world and starts the process of peaceful development.Even in the end of the 1980s, Su Dong's drama changed, and Mdash; MDASH; MDASH; China, the United States, and the West can completely adopt a strategy of completely blocking and isolation, but still adopted China to actively help reform and reform and reform.Development policy.
Understanding the history of Sino -US relations for a century can make us more clearly understand the real strategic intention of the United States to China and make a rational judgment on Sino -US relations.Although the United States shows the color of hegemony, it is not an attitude of being isolated or deadly after all.From NibiThe works of Katson, Kissinger, Bujetzi, and Hentington can be seen. As early as the 1970s brought China into the world order, the United States has fully judged that China will grow into a super country.Therefore, the United States has long been ready to accept China as a global country.China should not make too much pessimistic or self -alienation of Sino -US trade conflict. The next step should be to do it on the basis of summing up with the United States, understand how it is a suitable leadership role in the world order.
China has always been vigilant and anxious about globalization
Compared with the West has been attracting China to join the world order, since modern times, China has always been a more vigilant mentality to join the world order. It has repeatedly occurred between the locks and the founding of the country, the outside of the country, and the revenge.China always treats globalization sensitively. When it is beneficial to itself, it will open the door a bit bigger. Once it is not good for itself or does not need itself, it will tighten the door seam or even seal.
Because China is a super country after all, it is a traditional hegemon of the East Asian world in history. Before the West arrived, it built its own tribute system, which determines that China has a strong concept of self -esteem and interests in diplomacy.In modern times, China has entered the world order in some kind of forced form, which has made China a strong conflict with globalization.China has always treated globalization with a doubtful attitude. Once there is a chance, it still wants to get rid of the leadership of the West and build its own order.
The deeper reason is that China has cultural and institutional anxiety about globalization.As the core country of civilization (Huntington), China has always had a sense of cultural superiority, and is afraid that participating in globalization at a deeper level will cause its civilization to lose.In particular, the depth of globalization is the integration of social structure and social system. China is concerned that it will impact the existing political order of the country and even have a disruptive effect.Therefore, China's participation in globalization has always been controlled at the economy and technical level. If it goes too far, there is a powerful brake system in the Chinese civilization itself to brake, and even hangs on the reversing stall.China has always treated globalization with a practicalist mentality and only regards it as a tool, and does not think that it is a world trend that it is difficult to settle in it.
These have caused China's anxiety to the external world not only to weaken because of their strength, but will become stronger and stronger.Because the deeper the economy is global, the more prominent the difference between China and the external world, and the stronger the urgency of internal and external requirements.In the future, China's anxiety and confrontation may increase.The key to whether China can become a global leader is not to overcome the enclosure of the United States, but to how to resolve this wall where its inner anxiety is resolved.
China ’s self -isolated tendency to self -isolated in the world in recent years
In the early days of reform and opening up, China showed a strong tendency to take the initiative to join the world order, actively recognized international rules, recognized the advantages of Western civilization, and tried to change its own rules.Very enthusiastic.However, in recent years, with the unexpected achievements of China's reform and opening up, and the west's vigilance in China has become higher and higher, the combination of these two factors has led to the various ideological tendencies of China's self -isolated in the world.Essence
The first tendency is based on the development of China's economic development. It is believed that China has unique institutional advantages and can surpass the world's universal rules. Therefore, China does not need to further reform to adapt to world order. Instead, it should build a world mainstream.The world order and compete with it.However, China should see that since the 20th century, various institutions have self -isolated attempts outside the world order, and the cost is huge. The root cause is that there is no civilization in the world that can surpass the value system established by the United Kingdom and the United States so far.And game rules.Through the study and reference of only 20 or 30 years, the progress of China's national strength and system is far from the degree of replacement of British and American value and order.
The second tendency is due to some economic frictions in the West and China, especially in the United States' approach to suppressing Chinese companies in this trade war. It is believed that dealing with the West, especially the United States, is full of traps.Decomple Western economy and technology.Those who hold this view believe that with such a large economic volume and existing technical foundation in China, they can be relieved and lived well.However, China's achievements today are obtained on the basis of participating in globalization. If China is decoupled from the world, it may use the advantages of the national system, and it will also independently establish a set of industrial systems that obey the mission of defending the country as the closed Soviet Union., But losing the opportunity to compete and communicate with the outside world, the motivation for long -term growth will also be lost.
There is also a view that does not advocate decoupled with the entire West, but is inclined to reconstruct a global supply chain that excludes the United States outside.There are many technologies in the United States that lead in the world. Excluding the United States outside of global supply chains is actually not conducive to China's economic competitiveness.Especially if the world split the two economic groups with China and the United States as the core, China will not only increase economic security, but will increase a lot of risks and international burdens in the economic comparison with the United States.Therefore, this idea is also very irrational.
The third situation is the tendency of describing ideology and culture.As the globalization process is getting deeper and deeper to the penetration of ordinary people in China, more and more people are concerned about the political value of the West, and gradually deepen to resist the entire Western culture.For example, it is forbidden to enter the classroom, resist the festival, and have recently changed the place names of Chongyang Meiwai.However, China does not replace the cultural resources that can replace Western values. The official advocacy of Chinese and red culture that the Chinese school and red culture have not been able to fully meet the cultural needs of a modern society.Blindly emphasizing the elimination of Western impact, which is not good for the development of the country and culture, but also exacerbates the cultural isolation of China from the outside world, and it is also difficult for the world to accept China.
Back to the Sino -US trade war.The biggest impact of the trade war on China is not economic aspect. It is not too unfavorable in terms of GDP data, but the impact on the psychological and political direction of Chinese nationals is huge.The isolated tendencies mentioned above may have been the edge of society for a long time, but the lasting and ups and downs of Sino -US trade conflicts erupted in 2018 gave these opportunities for full fermentation of these ideological remarks.What kind of development path will China go.
The experience of transformation in developing countries shows that when the industrialization is completed, one may be the continued political democratization, and the other may be the rise of authoritativeism and nationalism, and political trends are conservative.Now China has reached a historical crossroad. The pressure on various structural reforms in the West to China will promote China to continue marketization and liberalization, move towards a more open society, or stimulate domestic conservative isolationism, and move towards a more restrained one.And a closed society?The advancement of history is full of accidents. Whether it can achieve the maximization of human interests depends on the political wisdom of Chinese and foreign leaders.
(Note: The author is an independent scholar. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
