Northeast Asian geopolitics behind Japan and South Koreas trade conflict

Sun Xingjie: Wen Zaiyin's diplomacy successfully contrasts the failure of Abe's diplomacy.Behind the conflict between Japan and South Korea is a series of triangular relations formed by the United States, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea.

As soon as the Osaka Summit ended, Japan started South Korea.A pair of bilateral relations that were not concerned about the world had become the target of media attention overnight.Japan announced that it is restricted to the three semiconductor core raw materials used to manufacture electronic equipment to South Korea, and these three core raw materials are almost monopolized.The chief official of the Japanese cabinet, Takii, disclosed to the media that the Japanese government announced that it is an appropriate export management for South Korea's restriction of high -tech materials for South Korea.Although this statement was not recognized by the outside world, it revealed the reason why Japan launched a raid against South Korea.

Japan and South Korea's conflict represents major changes in the triangular diplomatic relations system in East Asia, which may represent a new stage of Japanese and Korean conflicts and frictions.

During the Osaka Summit, Japan and South Korea's heads did not meet, which was not normal in itself. After Japan's announcement of the core raw materials of South Korea after the Osaka Summit, it was also waiting for the G20 summit.Dissatisfaction with South Korea.In the short term, Japan and South Korea fell into an impasse in May this year due to the issue of force on labor during World War II.Japan believes that compensation issues have been resolved in the Japan -South Korean request agreement in 1965, and the Korean court's decision requires that the assets of Japanese corporate assets are required to compensate for compensation for strongly levied South Korean workers.

In addition to labor issues, there are also comfort women.During President Park Geun -hye, Japan and South Korea have reached an agreement to compensation for comfort women, and the Japanese side constantly emphasized that this is an irreversible solution.After President Wen Zaiyin came to power, the contradictions and conflicts between Japan and South Korea's issues such as compensation and comfort women broke out.The reason is that these two issues involve national emotional issues in South Korea.In the speech of the 100th anniversary of the March 1st Movement of this year, Wen Zaiyin put forward the concept of the new peninsula system, and also said that he would clear the pro -Japanese participation and emphasize the reflection history.It can be said that liquidation in Japan's colonialism is still a potential in Korean politics.

What kind of bilateral relationship is Japan and South Korea relations?In simple terms, bilateral relations under the shadow of the United States, bilateral relations based on external threats and actual interests, are not the core or priority diplomatic objects of each other in their respective diplomatic strategies.

Japanese and Korean countries are not sovereignty countries in the complete sense, and can even be said to be semi -sovereign countries.After the war, Japan has undergone the transformation of the US military's occupation authorities. In addition to a large number of garrison, the Japanese Constitution is also promulgated by the authorities. The amendment to the constitution is closely linked to the normalization of the country in Japan.South Korea is a country established with the support of the United States. To this day, the United States still has war commands, and Wen Zaiyin is actively promoting the transfer of war commands.

Japan and South Korea have established a military alliance system with the United States. The United States, Japan, and the United States and South Korea alliances are the security and prerequisites for security of Japan and South Korea. It is the first priority to US diplomacy for US diplomacy.It can be said that the United States and Japan and South Korea have formed a near -empire -style wheel structure. The tightness and importance of the United States, Japan, the United States and South Korea have far exceeded Japan and South Korea.There are two bonds in Japan and South Korea: One is the demand for economic development. One important reason for Park Jung -hee to promote the establishment of diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea was that South Korea to achieve economic modernization needs to use the power of Japan.The second is the safety needs. During the Cold War, Japan and South Korea were at the forefront of the Cold War, especially during the Korean War, Japan was the big rear of the United States.The giant game formed by the Cold War and the split status of the Korean Peninsula are the common background of Japan -South Korea's security cooperation. Double lift has made Japan and South Korea have to rely on each other.

Safety and economy's demands are the factors of stable relations between Japan and South Korea. However, the two countries do not have historical problems, such as comfort women, textbooks, labor problems, etc. Coupled with territorial disputes, Japan and South Korea relations continue to fluctuate.For more than a year, major changes have experienced on the Korean Peninsula, and the basic framework of Japan -South Korea relations has shown signs of looseness.

The US -DPRK leaders met three times, especially after the Osaka Summit, and accompanied by Wen Zaiyin, Trump and Kim Jong -un will meet at the free home on the side of the South Korean side of Panmunnia.Although Wen Zaiyin did not participate in the talks, this further confirmed the role of Japan's issue in the peninsula and the marginal role in Northeast Asian diplomacy.The reason why Japan restricts the core raw materials for South Korea ’s exports is that the water fluoride exported from Japan to South Korea does not know where to produce hydrogen fluoride that can be used to produce toxic gas and chemical weapons may flow into North Korea.Of course, South Korea does not admit that there is such a thing, and strategic items enter North Korea to violate the UN Security Council resolution.Japan's allegations can be said to be one stone and two birds.The first is to avoid associating this trade raid with Japan's history.Regardless of the problem of comfort women or labor problems, Japan is in a moral wind.The second is to turn the problem safe, especially the Korean Peninsula issue.Wen Zaiyin exhausted his efforts to meet the Peninsula with the Peninsula. If South Korea is suspected of selling illegal products to North Korea, what is the legitimacy of the Meeting of the United States and North Korea?Wen Zaiyin's diplomatic performance can also be zero.

The two major links of Japanese -Korean relations show signs of relaxation or even reversal to varying degrees.Economically, the competitiveness between Japan and South Korea has continued to rise. After South Korea ranked among the developed economies, the homogeneous competition in the Japanese and Korean industries is rising.South Korea is also an excellent student of East Asian model. In a short period of time, he has gone through Japan's industrialization process.The Korean electronics industry can be said to live later. Korean companies represented by Samsung have become leading companies in the world's electronics industry. In contrast, the Japanese electronics industry seems to be declining.This time, Japan suddenly made precise blows against Korean electronic companies, allowing the world to see the advanced position of Japan in this industry. At the same time, it also acted in South Korea's stuck neck.In a short time, South Korea may not have the power to fight back.As soon as South Korea can ask for negotiations with Japan, but South Korean negotiating representatives revealed the information about the talks to the press after the first talk, making it difficult for the negotiations to go on.The second South Korea can be self -reliant and make up for the shortcomings. In the long run, the industrial chain in East Asia will have to be restructured.

Japanese and Korean economic competition is not only reflected in the industrial field, but also in the negotiations of the free trade zone.At first, the negotiations between the China -Korea Free Trade Zone and the China -Japan -Korea Free Trade Zone were almost parallel. Now the China -Korea Free Trade Zone has been upgraded, and the negotiations between the China -Japan -Korea Free Trade Zone are still underway.After the US withdrawn from the TPP, Japan has engaged in a miniature version of TPP, that is, CPTPP (comprehensive and progressive cross -Pacific partnership agreement).Earlier this year, South Korea tentatively joined it, but was resisted by Japan.This time, Japan used a killer to contain industries in South Korea.It can be seen that the Japanese and Korean economic competition has reached a very hot level.Some people believe that Abe is imitating Trump's trade war strategy.

In terms of security, the foundation of Japan and South Korea's cooperation is losing, especially the ease of the Peninsula situation has broken the structure of the three sides of the United States, Japan and South Korea.Under the United States, Japan, and the United States and South Korea, Japan and South Korea have competitions, and they are the most important ally in the United States in East Asia.During the Obama administration, the United States, South Korea, the United States and Japan alliances showed a tendency to converge, and the structure of dual degeneration forced Japan and South Korea to cooperate. This is also the period of Park Geun -hye's government.reason.

After Trump came to power, Japan and South Korea were hit by Trump.The first is that in trade issues, the United States is no longer generous. South Korea has signed the US -South Korea FTA Agreement, and the progress of Japan -US trade negotiations is not smooth.The second is that President Trump believes that Japan and South Korea need to take more. Trump, who likes to watch TV, talks about TV when talking about Japan and South Korea.Once said, the United States spent $ 1 billion to deploy Sad to protect South Korea, while the TVs hanging in the United States are produced by this country.The other time was considered that the Japan -US military alliance was unbalanced and the United States protected Japan, but if the United States encountered an attack, Japan could only see it from TV.One reason for the development of the U.S., Japan and South Korea's three sides in the direction of the triangle relations is that the restrictions on Japan and South Korea's restrictions on Japan and South Korea are declining.The bond was relaxed.

For Abe, the North Korean nuclear is a necessary threat.In 2017, in 2017, which is continuously conducted in North Korea, the importance of US -Japan relationsIt is constantly prominent, and Wen Zaiyin's policy against the DPRK is difficult.Since 2018, Wen Zaiyin has played the agent of a peninsula diplomacy, while Japan is in an embarrassing state: it is dim and even worried that his own interests will be ignored by the United States.For Japan, changes in the situation in the peninsula bring two major challenges.The first is that the relationship between North Korea and South Korea has recovered, and the nationalist emotions of the north and the south are rising. In terms of requiring Japan to reflect on history, there is no difference in the north and south parties. The ease of North and South relations also means that the threat between each other is declining, especially Wen Zaiyin is committed to promoting the Peninsula.The new system, North Korea is not the threat of South Korea, but the object of cooperation and reconciliation, the relationship between the triangle of the Japanese, Korean, Korean and South Korea has undergone qualitative changes.Japan proposed in May to hold a meeting of Japanese leaders in the premise, but it did not get a positive response from North Korea, which also caused Abe's face to lose a lot.Second, during the interaction of the United States and North Korea, Japan is basically difficult to intervene. The abduction problem is an important issue for Japan's diplomacy, but now it is basically the corners.In addition, there is no Japanese demand in the Korean Peninsula's nuclearization plan.

It can be said that the more successful the diplomacy of Wen Zaiyin's peninsula, the more reversing the failure of Abe's diplomacy.In a media program, Abe believes that the main driving force for the ease of the peninsula situation comes from the United States and China, not Wen Zaiyin.But in contrast, Abe is an outsider.Japan and South Korea's interests on the peninsula have competition, even conflict.The sudden conflict between Japan and South Korea's trade is behind a series of triangular relations formed by the United States, Japan, North Korea, and South Korea.We cannot predict the future trend, but we can see the logic behind the development of Japanese and Korean relations.At the turning point of history, leaders' vision and strategy are still important.

(Note: The author is the deputy director of the Institute of International Relations of Jilin University. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.