A week review
After meeting at the G20 Summit at the G20 at the Summit of the 20th G20 at the Summit of China and US President Trump on June 29, the news came from this week.The first contact since the war ceasefire.
US trade representative Littichzer and Treasury Minister Mnuchin on Tuesday with Liu He, Vice Premier of the Chinese State Council, and the Minister of Commerce Zhongshan.
In the G20's Xi special conference, the time framework for negotiations with Trump or the final term of the trade agreement was finalized.However, the road is still far away from China and the United States to reach a trade agreement and end the one -year trade war.
Trump complained that China had not fulfilled a large number of promises to purchase a large number of US agricultural products.According to the data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday, after the G20 meeting, China actually slowed down the purchase of American agricultural products.China purchased American soybeans of 127,800 metric tons last week, a decrease of 79%compared with the previous week.Similarly, China only purchased 76 tons of American pork, and in June is 10,000 400 tons.
Not unilateral commitment
However, when the Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman, when the Ministry of Commerce responded to Trump's complaints on Thursday, it did not confirm that China ’s promise to purchase US agricultural products was part of the China -US Osaka reached agreement.He said that agricultural product trade is an important issue that both parties need to discuss.
Hu Xijin, editor -in -chief of the Global Times of the People's Daily of the Chinese People's Daily, issued a tweet on Thursday that the achievement of the Osaka Summit was a consensus on China and the United States, not China's unilateral commitment to the United States.The principle of equality.
At the same time that the Sino -US trade negotiations are still long -term, the senior management of the Trump administration has intensively met with Hong Kong publishers and democratic activists Li Zhiying, which has been angry this week to express their support for Hong Kong democratic protesters, as well as ChinaGovernment challenge.
U.S. officials met with Li Zhiying's dissatisfaction.In Hong Kong, the Chinese government has negotiated to the US Consulate General, asking the United States to stop wrong words and deeds, and do not go further and further on the wrong road.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at a regular press conference on the 9th: The United States has repeatedly intervened in Hong Kong affairs and issued a serious error signal hellip; hellip; we expressed strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition.
Political friction has a negative impact on the smooth implementation of trade negotiations, and trade friction is unavoidable to impact China's economic growth.
The China National Development and Reform Commission revealed on the 11th that the current Sino -US economic and trade frictions have different degrees of impact on different light industry industries, especially for enterprises with high export dependence on the United States, strong product replacement, and more affected companies outside the two ends.Although the Development and Reform Commission claims that the Sino -US trade friction has an overall impact on the infrastructure of the light industry's foreign trade, the deadlock between China and the United States is still a key uncertain factor in China, or even the global economic growth.
Lisha, the world's largest consumer goods supplier, reminds the market on Wednesday that the United States has promoted reducing dependence on China and will threaten China's long -term commodity demand.In an interview with Bloomberg, Leifeng CEO Feng Yujun said that this was because no one was investing and no one was buying.The trade war led people to stop investing.
Feng Yujun, CEO of Lifeng, also said that because of the worried US retailers accelerating the move from China under the intense trade situation, Chinese factories are becoming nervous and desperate.China will see more factories close, because the trade war that disrupted the global supply chain will accelerate the departure of enterprises.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China show that due to the decline in oil prices and the weak global demand, the factory price index (PPI) of the industrial producer in June was the same as that of the same period last year. It was the weakest level in the past three years and decreased by 0.3%from May.
The decline in PPI in China in June was also faster than market expectations, causing the slowdown in the trade war that caused the slowdown in manufacturing to further drag China's economic growth.If the decline in PPI continues to accelerate, it will mean that the overall domestic demand is weak, and it will also strengthen the prospects of the central bank to maintain the stability of economic output and increase stimulation to boost the economic prospects.
Bloomberg Economic Division Qu Tianshi and thousands of articles said that the price data in China in June has exacerbated concerns about the industrial department's re -shrinking.With the support of PPI year -on -year and rising food prices, and maintaining a stable consumer price index (CPI), the differences between the two squeezed corporate profits and will increase the central bank of the Chinese People's Bank of China to relax the monetary policy in the second half of the year.pressure.
Hundreds of base points at the deposit rate
The latest quarterly survey results of Reuters show that the expected policy easing of the interviewees is less than that of the previous investigation.The estimated median value shows that the deposit reserve ratio will be reduced by 100 basis points in the third and fourth seasons, but the respondents still believe that the benchmark interest rate will not change this year.
The People's Bank of China has previously lowered the RMB deposit reserve rate of rural commercial banks in the county to the grade of rural credit cooperatives, and adjusted in three times.From May 15 this year, a percentage point of the Rural Commercial Bank's deposit percentage is reduced; one percentage point is reduced again on June 17; the reference standard deposit rate was reduced to 8%on July 15th.
As for the macroeconomic trend, Chinese Minister of Finance Liu Kun said in Milan's financial dialogue on Milan on Wednesday that the Chinese government is confident that it can maintain economic growth within 6%to 6.5%.
The results of the above -mentioned surveys from Reuters show that under the Sino -US trade friction but not decisive, and weakened internal and external needs, the Chinese economy will show a backward and low trend this year. It is expected that the growth rate of GDP in the second quarter is 6.3%.In the third and fourth quarters of the GDP growth rate, it was repaired by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2%, and the annual growth rate was 6.2%.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will be announced next Monday (15th) to announce the GDP of the second and first half of this year, as well as industrial, investment and retail sales data in June.
The Sino -US trade war is still in a deadlock, and the trade war between South Korea and Japan also starts.In addition, the U.S. tariffs on Europe and Mexico, such as Europe and Mexico, will probably affect the global market, and the days when investors are worried.
