[July 1st to 2nd, the century-old change bureau Mdash; mdash; MDash; 70 years of road and world pattern reconstruction of the 3rd Idess Forum was held in Beijing. This article is the chairman of the conference.Zhang Wei, the dean of the China Institute of Fudan University, the opening ceremony and the keynote speech of Professor Zhang Wei's opening ceremony.Observer.com sorted out and published to readers.]
On July 1, 2019, the Third Ideological Forum was held in Beijing.
Zhang Weiwei:
Dear guests, ladies, gentlemen, friends,
The 2019 Idess Forum opened.On behalf of the China Research Institute of Fudan University, the Tsinghua University Social Governance and Development Research Institute, the Shanghai Spring and Autumn Development Strategic Research Institute, Observer Network, and Cultural Magazine, they have extended the warmest welcome to everyone.
July 1 is the 98th anniversary of the Communist Party of China.This year is the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China, so we have specially decided to put this year's forum in our capital Beijing and the Beijing restaurant.After the Daily Founding Ceremony on October 1, 1949, that night, Chairman Mao Zedong held a grand dinner for more than 600 Chinese and foreign guests at the Beijing Hotel, so we held a special significance of the 2019 thinker forum in the Beijing Hotel.Let us discuss the struggle between the 70 years since the founding of the People's Republic of China.
We are in an era of unparalleled changes in a century. The era of great changes requires thoughts, can also produce ideas, and thought will lead change.In this spirit, we have held a thinker forum every year since 2017. Today, we will hold the third thinker forum here.
The guests are all leaders in the field of ideological fields at home and abroad. We invite everyone to hope that through the discussion, exchanges, and even debate of this forum to generate new ideological sparks, new ideas, and new ideas.If there is any characteristics of our forum, I think its biggest feature is to seek truth and pragmatic. Everyone does not talk about the official talk, but only takes serious ideological exchanges and even confrontation, and strives to make what the thinker should make for this era of change.contribute.
China's breakthrough system and future world structure
The theme we discuss today is the world's significance of the Chinese road.I want to talk about five views.
First, the rise of China is the first peaceful rise in human history.
The history of the rise of western powers in history is a history of blood and fire.One of the main reasons for China to rise peacefully is that China has adopted a win -win cooperation strategy. To be precise, an embedded cooperation and win -win strategy makes China not only benefit the Chinese people, but also to benefit most of the people in the world.EssenceChina's contribution rate to world economic growth has exceeded 30%over the years, surpassing the sum of the United States and the European Union.
Second, the rise of China is an integration of the four industrial revolution.
For historical reasons, China missed the first industrial revolution and the second industrial revolution.It can be said that in the past few decades, it has also been 40 years in China.We chased all the way to the speed of the industrial revolution every ten years.From the ten years from the 1980s to the early 1990s, through vigorously developing township enterprises, we can say that we have completed the first industrial revolution mainly based on the textile industry.From the beginning of the 1990s to the beginning of the 21st century, we roughly completed the second industrial revolution mainly based on power, internal combustion engines, household appliances, petrochemical industries and infrastructure.
Following almost the third industrial revolution represented by the informatization and communications industry, it was the first to catch up, but it soon began to counterattack. Now it has become the leader of the third industrial revolution.It is the change of China Mobile Communications from 2G to 4G/5G.Today, the entire world is undergoing a turning period from the third industrial revolution to the fourth industrial revolution. The fourth industrial revolution represented by big data, artificial intelligence, and quantum communication will greatly change the operation of human society.It should be said that only China and the United States belong to the first square of this new industrial revolution.For the vast majority of Chinese people, this is also an extremely wonderful life experience. Most of them have experienced from agricultural civilization to industrial civilization to information civilization.
Third, China's rise has broken through the peripheral-center dependency system that has long-term trouble in developing countries.
We know that under this dependent system, Western countries are in the center of the world, and the majority of China has developed peripherals. The central country can earn a lot of money by super exploitation of peripheral countries., Can't develop.This dependent system is also known as the peripheral support center pattern.But China's peaceful rise successfully broke through this pattern.Today, China has become a single pole outside the center-center.In this pattern, China is the largest trade, investment and technical partners in peripherals and developing countries.At the same time, China is also the largest trade, investment and technical partners in central countries and Western countries.This will definitely change the entire world pattern.
Fourth, since China's rise is a peaceful and win-win cooperation, because China's rise is the rise of four industrial revolution, because China has broken through the peripheral-center dependency system and becomes a separate one pole.The pattern brings profound changes, and this impact will become increasing.
Generally speaking, decentralization will be an unstoppable trend in China.Taking the trade between China and Africa as an example, the United States was still the largest trading partner in Africa ten years ago, but now China has become Africa's largest trading partner, and China -Africa trade volume has been twice the amount of trade in the United States and Africa.This situation is also happening in Southeast Asia and Latin America.One main reason is that there is only one country in the world that can provide four industrial revolution products, services and experiences to non -Western countries.
At the same time, the interaction between China and the central country is developing rapidly. Although protectionism and unilateralism are now looking up in Europe and the United States, the momentum of relations between China and the central country has slowed down, but we still have to see that the EU todayIt is still China's largest trading partner, and China is the largest credit country in the United States and the second largest trading partner.The peaceful rise of the four industrial revolution in China, especially the first formation of the fourth industrial revolution, also shocked many Western countries.Although the right right forces in the United States want the United States and China to be decoupled from the economy, it will actually not be able to do it.Most of the products produced in China are difficult to replace the American economy and people's lives.Although there are a lot of friction in China's relations with central countries, the Chinese market itself is huge, and China has the world's most complete industrial chain. China can provide various products of four industrial revolution. China pursues the policy of win -win cooperation.All of this makes many attempts to curb China in the United States and Western countries, and the trade war launched by the United States cannot be successful.
Fifth, this is the first time in human history that such a situation has appeared: the world's largest economy (at parity according to purchasing power) is a country that truly loves peace, and it is also a country with a strong ability to stop war, not to be strongly strongLing weak country is a country; a country that truly advocates equality of countries, not a country that is deceived and small; it is a country that truly promotes win -win cooperation, not extremely selfish and neighbor.She can find more than other countries and substantially promote the interests of the interests of countries around the world, and substantially promote peace and development worldwide.I think as long as we maintain strategic determination and adopt the correct strategic tactics, we are likely to substantially guide the unreparable changes in the centuries.The interests of the state and the people are conducive to the development of the construction of the community of human destiny.
From the perspective of civilization, Sino -US relations
Eight years ago, the end of history and I had a debate with Mr. Fukuyama.Before the end of the debate, we discussed the three elements of the so -called modern political order mdash; mdash; state, accountability system, and the rule of law.I am afraid to add a wisdom on this element.I said that I observed that the United States and the United States fought so many battles. From a tactical point of view, it was winning, but it was almost not strategically wished. In fact, it was a matter of wisdom to some extent.The Vietnamese war is like this, the Afghan war is like this, and the Iraq war is the same, and there are other wars, so I think I may have to emphasize the reasons for more wisdom.I said that we respect our culture because behind culture is wisdom.Wisdom is not equal to knowledge.Our knowledge today is not much more than how many times in the past. Today, the knowledge of elementary school students may exceed Confucius and surpass Socrates, but wisdom has not increased much.
In today's world, how to deal with the relationship between the country and the country, and how to better achieve global governance.The logic of the game, the hug is the director, the ruler is short, the logic of civilization and mutual learning, and win -win cooperation.
More than ten years ago, former US President George Middot; Bush said a famous saying during the Iraq war: either with us or our enemy (with us or aganst us);The logic of the war is also: China's trade surplus is that China has benefited, and the United States has suffered a lot.Samuel Middot in the United States; Professor Huntington proposed a civilized conflict theory many years ago. Recently, a US senior official Skinner even went further, claiming that China -US conflicts were conflicts of different races and civilizations.Harvard's Graham Middot; Professor Ellison proposed that Sino -US relations may face the trap of Xunxione. These views are very different, but the deep -level logic behind it is the same, that is, zero -sum game, you win me.
In fact, the logic of Chinese civilization is more calm and tolerant.If the logic of the United States was what Bush said that year, either with us or our enemies (With us or Against US), then the logic of the Chinese has a more historical sense of depth. Our logic can be summarized in this way:It is a friend or future friend (A Friend or Potential Friend).Behind this logical difference is the differences between Chinese and Western cultural traditions, especially the difference between religious traditions.There are thousands of religious wars in European history, and countless religions have played countless battles between different religions and different sects within the same religion.In contrast, there are various wars in Chinese history, but few religious wars.
This is related to the Western divine tradition.The tradition of divine religion means: you are different from my belief, you may be pagans, I am right, you are wrong, and even evil. I must make you like me, otherwise you are my enemy.In contrast, Chinese religious traditions are essentially tolerance and comprehensive, so the situation of Confucianism, Buddhism, Taoism blended with each other and complement each other in Chinese history, which allows China to avoid the killing and torment of the religious war.The main reasons and wisdom that lasted for thousands of years without interruption.However, there is also a characteristic of Chinese religious tradition that religious intervention is not allowed to intervene in politics. Therefore, the tradition of separation of Chinese and religious separation is far away. This is a high degree of wisdom. In today's turbulent and conflict world, this wisdomprecious.
On July 1, 2019, the 3rd Idess Forum was held in Beijing. The picture shows the forum scene
Professor Ellison listed 16 cases when he talked about the trap of Xiu Xidid. Almost all of the countries that believed in Western politics and culture in Western politics and culture, which, and zero -sum games, were almost superstitious and military conquest.This is also a major difference in the history of Chinese and Western politics.The empires in European history are basically military empires, and force conquering other countries is part of their faith.The rise of the European Empire has always been accompanied by the colonial war. Only after two World War, it was painful and embarked on the path of peaceful integration.China does not have a tradition of militarism like Western.In the first half of Zheng He went to the West in the first half of the fifteenth century, his main ship's drainage was 100 times more than 80 years later. After more than 80 years, Columbus discovered the St. Maria of the American continent, but China did not colonize other countries.
This political and cultural differences also show clearly in the attitude of China and the United States for war.The United States became the world's largest economy around 1890, and then launched the American Spanish War, defeated Spain, and occupied the colonies in Spain such as the Philippines and Cuba.In contrast, China became the world's largest economy in 2014 according to purchasing power. With China's military strength today, China may quickly recover all the Nans island reefs illegally occupied by neighboring countries, but China has not chose to do soInstead, it is advocated to solve differences through negotiations.
There is also an example that can explain the problem. When China first had nuclear weapons in 1964, China announced that it would not use nuclear weapons first and did not use nuclear weapons for non -nuclear countries.If all nuclear weapons countries can do this today, today's world can avoid the fear of nuclear war.
Recently, there was a report that former US President Carter told President Trump that he understood why Trump was worried about China surpassing the United States, but he admitted that he had not wars for more than 16 years since the founding of the United States, which made the United States the most in historyA fighting country, he suggested that the United States learn lessons, learn China, and invest in peace and development. I think this is not only the desire of Mr. Carter, but also the wishes of most people in the world.The wishes of most American people outside the group.
In the end, I also need to emphasize that today we call for civilization and mutual learning, win -win cooperation, and oppose that I am independent, zero -sum games, not begging the United States from a weak mentality, we will never do so.In the history of contact with the West, China will be slaughtered by any people from the Western invasion that has suffered again and again that there is no strong national defense, so they start the goal of pursuing national rejuvenation and strong national defense, and obtain it.Great success.
The trade war from the United States this time has made the Chinese see clearly without developed economy and leading technology. The Chinese may be deprived of the right to use mobile phones, although China has long been the country with the most mobile communications users in the world.Fortunately, China has successfully developed through the Chinese socialist model, rather than the national capitalist model, and completed the rise of four industrial revolution. Therefore, we confidently tell the United States and launch the Sino -US trade war., Huawei, who is leading 5G technology, can only eventually move stones to smash their feet.If the Iraq war is a tactical win and strategically loses due to the lack of wisdom, then the Sino -US trade war is a tactical and strategic defeat in the United States. It almost perfectly interprets what is the lack of historical vision and civilization and wisdom.In other words, we believe that the road to a win -win situation in civilization and win -win cooperation is in line with the long -term interests of the United States.If the United States is still willing to persist in my only respect, zero -sum game, we can also be accompanied to the end. We have the patience to wait for the United States to realize the day.
