Author: Wang Zheng
Iran has shot down a $ 130 million U.S. Global Eagle unmanned reconnaissance aircraft. As soon as the war, US President Trump ordered the cancellation of the instructions for Iranian air strikes to avoid the outbreak of the Middle East war.Immediately after the United States announced that a group of senior officials such as Hamenei, President Ranii and Foreign Minister Zarif, the top leader of Iran, imposed financial sanctions. Iran responded that the foreign channels of the two countries were fully closed, and Trump and RouhaniiScolded each other across the air.
The hot battle did not dare to fight, so he had to vent his emotions with saliva war and overtime. Behind Trump's extreme pressure, it shows that the United States is just a paper tiger who is difficult to ride a tiger.
Election campaigns are hard to start at high war
The United States is the most powerful superpower in the world today, but it does not mean that the United States can launch war as much as possible.Whether the nuclear weapons between China and Russia and the United States guarantee the destruction of each other, or the asymmetric deterrence of the Iranian missiles and North Korea's nuclear weapons to the United States, it is an unbearable loss of the United States.Whether it is the bee colony tactics of the drone, the fish group tactics of various small and medium -sized warships, the bullet group tactics of the short -range ballistic missile, or the ant colony tactics of the huge ground forces, the U.S. troops can be dragged into a heavy damage.The protracted war, even if the U.S. military can win, it is just a miserable victory, not to mention that the US military's current military power deployment in the Middle East and East Asia is far from being enough to deal with the war.
Especially for the US president, election re -election is the greatest political interest in the individual. Although President Bush has won the first Persian War, he lost his re -election campaign.Afghanistan has caused the United States to fall into the muddy mud that is nearly 20 years. The defeat of the Republican Party in 2008 and the 2016 Democratic Party's defeats are all because of this.Instead of the Democratic Party's biggest competitor Biden, Biden increased the support of 2%per week.
Trump is indeed around a group of eagles such as Polton, a national security consultant, and the Israeli Prime Minister Neitanahu, Saudi Arabia, etc., and Iran as an American allies with Iran. ThereforeIt is not impossible for Trump to launch the war against Iran, just like the Obama military general encouraged Obama to increase troops to increase troops in Afghanistan.However, Trump is the primary goal of re -election, followed by the desire to receive the Nobel Peace Prize during his term of office like Obama. Naturally, there is a big gap with the fan of war at Potaton.To destroy Iran and North Korea, it is actually seeking non -war solutions.
The soldiers of the soldiers and the siege of the siege and the siege are all grandson's military law. Even for the military dominance of the United States, in the face of opponents with sufficient asymmetric deterrence, more choices are still choosing.Including non -warming methods such as peaceful evolution, economic sanctions, cyber warfare, electronic warfare, assassination leadership, secret penetration, blasting important military goals.However, whether the United States is in the face of a global power, or regional military powers such as China and Russia, or regional military powers such as Iran and North Korea, or regional medium countries that have certain military strength and almost complete control of the troops, such as Venezuela.The means still cannot subvert the regime of the target country.
Playing is not talking or not
The United States is fully capable of winning the war against Iran, but it does not have the ability to control the war at the end of this year or before the first half of next year, and Iran ’s Iranian armed forces in the Iranian system in the Middle East will launch a combat to make the U.S. military and its allies fall into Chu.It will only make Trump lose the election.In the face of Iran's shot down the U.S. military drone without mobilizing any military retaliation, Iran has completely seen it, making any U.S. military unable to increase troops in the Middle East to form sufficient military deterrent against Iran.As for economic sanctions, Trump is not playing or talking now. This situation is similar in contrast to North Korea and Venezuela.
When the United States did not dare to send troops in the face of Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela, the U.S. UAV was shot down and did not dare to fight down. The U.S. military was forced to consider the preparation of US politicians.How could the U.S. military cross the ocean to fight for Taiwan independence?
(The author is an associate researcher at the School of International Relations of Sun Yat -sen University)
