Author: Jin Canrong (Professor of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, an expert in American issues)
The 14th Summit of the G20 National Leader was held in Osaka, Osaka, Japan from June 28th to 29th. Chinese President ... attended the summit and will participate in all eight theme discussions.There is no doubt that the Sino -US dollar meeting at the G20 summit will also become the focus of global attention.
What should I do to talk about?What role does the G20 mechanism play a role in global governance, and what difficulties and challenges are facing?In response to these issues, Observer Network interviewed Professor Jin Canrong, deputy dean of the School of International Relations of the Renmin University of China and an international expert.
Observer.com: G20 is undoubtedly one of the most important mechanisms for global governance and co -cope with crisis. However, at present, this mechanism has encountered some difficulties. What do you think cause this difficulties and how will all countries deal with?
Jin Canrong: The concept of G20 was first proposed by the Germans in 1998. The purpose is to integrate the traditional industrialized power and emerging countries. The earliest mechanism of G20 is the financial minister meeting.By 2008, as the financial tsunami swept the world, the United States needed developed countries and developing countries to cooperate with him to solve the crisis, so Americans proposed to turn the Treasury Secretary into a summit.
At that time, the first call from Bush, the US President Bush, was to give us President Hu Jintao, which received a positive response from China. Then the G20 summit became a new mechanism.From the perspective of intellectual property rights, the creativity of the G20 belongs to Germany, and it becomes the appeal of the United States by the summit, and China has also played an important role in it.
In terms of mechanism, the G20 is a better platform for the world macroeconomic policy coordination.First of all, its representativeness is much better than the G7: the world's macroeconomic policy is coordinated by G7. In the 1990s, the most powerful time in the seven countries accounted for 78%of the world's GDP.48%, obviously it is not enough to rely on G7 now.The United Nations is very representative, but its efficiency is very poor. Therefore, the G20 is a very good mechanism in terms of efficiency and representative balance.
In addition, from the perspective of international governance, especially the coordination of macro policy, the G20 is ideal and also played a very good historical role mdash; due to the emergence of the G20, the policy coordination of major countries is very good, and it helps quickly help it.The world economy resumed confidence and jumped out of the impact of Wall Street's financial tsunami.
China has appreciated this mechanism very much, so since the first summit in Pittsburgh, the United States in November 2008, China has actively participated.China has made great contributions to the birth and development of the G20 summit.My friends from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed to me that Bush wanted to engage in the G20 summit at that time, and said on the phone to Chairman Hu: this matter depends on your attitude.If you don't do that.mdash; mdash; China can be regarded as co -founder of G20.At that time, Chairman Hu's response was also very positive. Bush was very happy to hear it, and soon it was done.
At present, the G20 has become a very influential mechanism. China has always attached great importance to and actively participated, and has contributed a great contribution to this mechanism.Among them, the Hangzhou G20 in 2016 should be a strong stroke in the history of G20, and has achieved very rich results, which derives many mechanisms, such as T20 (think tank 20), B20 (industrial and commercial 20), etc.Build a platform.
The G20 mechanism has indeed encountered some difficulties, mainly in two aspects:
First, the advocacy of this mechanism is not as important as before, and even wants to cross the river to dismantle the bridge.
In the 2008 financial crisis, the United States was a little bit of money to help me through the difficulties. Now that the crisis has passed over, he thought: Oh, the G7 was more convenient.Because of the G20, a part of the United States was snatched by China.We look at each of the G20 summits. It is very interesting. It is the host country in the middle. The next host country is next to it, and the two hosts are always China and the United States.
For example, the G20 is like a party committee. The two branches below. One branch G7 is an old branch. The branch secretary is the United States. Now there is a second branch, the BRICS country, and the second branch secretary is our China.The United States has always been domineering in international relations, and does not like others to snatch his limelight. At this point, Trump has intensified.Therefore, the first challenge is the change of American attitude as the initiator.
Second, the G20 is the product of the financial crisis in various countries. People are more likely to have difficulties in common. When they are in trouble, when the macro structure of the world economy is planned, the internal interests of various countries come out.The next step in the reform of the world economy, including how the WTO reform, involves long -term reform and distribution of interests, the differences in the G20 are very large.
China cherishes the mechanism of G20. In some core issues, China has its own views, including macroeconomic stability, financial system reform, and global problems governance.These views have been concentrated on the G20 of Hangzhou. Our views are mature and systematic, and they are already there.Now our task is to accept others, but it is still difficult at present.
There are eight themes at the G20 Osaka Summit this time. All eight themes Xi participated in the discussion and worked very hard.For these themes, we all have ready -made expressions. Now we need to say better, impress each other's hearts, and connect our interests with the interests of other countries. Of course, this effect is not sure.Because everyone now has a consensus to solve, how to solve it, there is no unified opinion.
In addition, the highlights of the G20 have no doubt to see a series of conferences, such as the BRICS Summit, China and Africa talk, and Modi also proposed a three -sided dialogue between China and Russia.The conference itself is a highlight, and multilateral and bilateral meetings outside the meeting are also very important.Of course, the world's most concerned is Xi special.
Observer.com: Speaking of the Xi special meeting, there are two different views on what the two leaders have to talk about. One believes that it will be concentrated in economic and trade negotiations and strive to reach an agreement as soon as possible;People will communicate in depth from the positioning of the relationship between the two countries and the long -term development.Do you think the content of this talk will be the first micro -or latter macro?
Kim Can Rong: From Trump, he must have wanted to talk about the micro. He hoped that China would quickly give up. He got the transcript and added points to the election next year.And of course we hope that he can talk about a little bit of macro and find a positive positioning for Sino -US relations.
The most dangerous part of the United States now is that they have a group of people who want to engage in a new Cold War and have decoupled with China Decouple. We hope to control the impact of this faction.
Judging from the current situation, the Trump team has not changed: the first faction is Wall Street, which requires long -term economic benefits; Trump himself is a faction, requires short -term visible economic benefits, and uses visible economic benefits to useWrite the text, so that he can achieve political victory; the third faction is a hardliner, that is, the extremely right -wing, and the economic benefits they want, but more importantly, the strategic interests. They need a framework to limit China's future development of China's future development.This is unacceptable for China.
We attach importance to Sino -US relations, we hope to stabilize the overall situation, and we can make every effort to concessions, but if it involves our development interests and prospects, we will not let it.And if concessions, let us always be a migrant worker, and the 1.4 billion people will not agree.Both factions are still there, and both have influence, but in the end, which one is biased, the key choice is still in Trump's hands.I think it is very likely that he will still lean on the gentle school.
Of course, we have another concern to warn the United States not to play Taiwanese cards.Because other cards are easy to say, the Taiwanese card is too dangerous.So in general, this talk should be a combination of micro and macro mdash; MDASH; trade can be stabilized, Taiwan should not make trouble, China and the United States must be stable, avoid the new Cold War mdash; mdash; but what is the last effect, I don’t know yet, I don’t know yet.EssenceHowever, in general, the United States is strong, so the proportion of their issues will be a bit higher.
Observer.com: Trump has officially announced his election, but recent polls show that he has lagged behind Biden significantly. What do you think is the reason?To what extent will the election in the United States affect Sino -US trade negotiations?What kind of mentality is Trump now?
Jin Canrong: The polls are constantly changing. The really meaningful poll is one month before the start of the election, and it is too early.The poll in May is of little significance to judge the results of the next election.I personally think that Trump still has a certain chance of winning, because his basic disk is very consolidated, and 35%of his voters support him are his hardcore.And if the Democratic Party is still like this, a group of people are competing, then the votes are scattered, which is not good for the Democrats.In addition, this poll is not reliable. I also doubt whether Biden is really leading Trump. Even if it is real, I think the polls in May are of little significance to the election in November.
Trump's mentality must now go to the end, and he has to be re -elected.His logic is like this: He has offended many people for two and a half years. If you go on for only four years, many things he wants will not be done. If he can't do itMaintain him, and the whole person is even more ironic, so that he will fall into a dangerous situation.
If Trump can have a second term, for eight years, some of his policies can be implemented, so that supporters will protect him, and some opponents will also support him. In this way, he will be safeIt's much more.From the perspective of political security and legal security, Trump and his family must seek re -election.
Therefore, he needs diplomatic performance, which is one of the reasons why I estimate the possible reason for the trade war this year. I personally estimate that the Osaka Conference is the head of state of the two countries to seek meetings, but it will be difficult to achieve results.By the end of the APEC at the end of the year, the two heads would go at that time, and the timing was relatively mature.
This time the leaders of the two countries mainly created political conditions for the restoration of economic and trade talks. I think the negotiations will be resumed in July after the meeting of the two countries. From July to November, the two parties will talk while talking.You can reach an agreement.
Trump now sincerely hopes to come up with a result and prove to voters that choose me.Because Trump's governance in the past two years seems lively and has done a lot of things, but there is no result in fact:
He originally wanted to solve the North Korean nuclear problem. In 2017, he spent great efforts to put pressure on North Korea's limit, but the effect was not good. In 2018, he changed the method MDash; mdashIn 2018, it was said that he fell in love with Kim Jong -un, but the two Kim Special Conference had no substantial results;
In recent years, he has been in Iran. This year's strength has been increasing, but recently I see that he has softened again, and it seems a bit blunt.This year he also rectified Venezuela and Cuba, but he did not succeed. Compared with the past, he was even more fierce, but he was more successful and unsuccessful.In addition, Trump has also lost to Putin in Syria and Ukraine.At present, he can't get any results. The only result is that Canada and Mexico have changed the North American trade agreement.
I am a fan of Jin Yong. From the perspective of the rivers and lakes, this kind of behavior is also an inexplicable mdash; MDASH; Canada is the younger brother of the United States, Mexico is a servant of generations. You are a big brother on the rivers and lakes.Brother, shelter your loyal servant, but he slap his brother in public. This is ridiculous and is not good for his status.
I feel that Trump will finally realize mdash; mdash; only the trade agreement with China is the only diplomatic achievement he might get.China is now a very influential country. It is still difficult for Americans to deal with Chinese people. If he can take out an agreement that Americans can be satisfied, Americans will still admire Trump and feel that he has two sons.
Observer.com: You just mentioned that the United States has recently exacerbated the tension of Iran's situation. It is aggressive in words, but it has become conservative in action. Do you think there will be variables in the Iranian situation recently?
Kim Can Rong: From Trump himself, he must have wanted to solve the problem at a low cost, and he was afraid that the situation was unprepared MDash; mdash; you can initiate war, but you cannot control the time and scale of the war. If the war,It was embarrassing, the situation was ugly, and it was very unfavorable to his re -election.
In a sense, don't look at the fierce surface of Trump. In fact, we should be able to rest assured, because he is unwilling to spend costs and unwilling to interfere with his re -election.; mdash; do not move martial arts, do not spend money, and never die.
However, there are too many non -controlling factors in the Iranian issue.
First of all, there are many rightists around Trump. Those rights really want to fight; the other is his allies. Here we are not good at calling and want to kill people by knife.
In Iran, Iran's internal extremists may also have this idea.Now Iran's president and foreign minister are relatively mild, but there are a group of very extreme people in Iran.Some of Iran's small allies and terrorists also have their own small abacus.
We can only say that from the decision makers of the two parties, they are unwilling to fight. The mainstream of the international community also wants not to fight, but a group of people with ulterior motives will stir the water and create uncertain factors.Whether the leaders of the two sides can control these uncertain factors are the key to the current situation. Source: Observer.com
