The trade war between China and the United States changes global cargo flow

Source: Nikkei Chinese Network

It has been one year since the trade war between China and the United States, and the circulation of goods around the world has changed.In terms of soybeans, the US production that has decreased by Brazil's soybean replacement of exports that was affected by China's counter -tariffs continued to rise.In terms of LNG (LNG), Asia and Oceania producers are also striving for China's demand that has been taken away by the United States.The trade war brings risks such as China's economic deceleration, and on the other hand, it also makes resource -based countries facing more business opportunities.

In 2018, China imposed counter -tariffs on extensive imports from the United States.The cost of imports in the United States has increased, and China has changed to purchase food and energy from other countries.

Japan ’s large shopping agency Maruki has grain export facilities in port cities facing the Atlantic Ocean in southern Brazil. In 2018, abnormal changes have occurred.Export products in the fall of previous years will change from soybean to corn, while the export of soybeans in China in the fall of 2018 has increased rapidly.The total export volume from September to December 2018 increased to about 2.5 times the same period last year.

Maruhong explained that soybeans from China after autumn are continuously contacted by China.The opportunity for special needs is the trade war between China and the United States.China is the world's largest soybean importer that purchases about 90 million tons each year. In the summer of 2018, it was a 25 % counter -tariff on US -made soybeans to fight against the Trump administration's sanctions tariffs.

China's imports of American soybeans have decreased sharply.China's trade statistics show that the import volume in 2018 was only 16.64 million tons, which was almost half a decrease from the previous year.While resisting the production of the United States, China chose Brazil as a new source of purchasing domestic demand.Brazil's soybean imports reached 66.08 million tons, an increase of 30 % over 2017.

The presence of the United States decreases

Due to the largest market China, which has been driven out of 60 % of soybean exports, the United States has expanded its sales to other Asia and the European Union.In 2018 (September 2018 to August 2019), exports to the European Union reached 6.74 million tons as of late March, reaching 2.3 times the same period last year.Sales of Asia and Oceania, such as Thailand, also increased by nearly 30 %.

However, these failed to offset the decline in China's exports.The total export volume of American soybeans in 2018 is expected to decrease by 10 % compared with the previous year to 51.03 million tons.The gap between Brazil (79.5 million tons) with a 4 % increase is further widening.The presence of American soybeans in the market will inevitably decline.

In the field of energy, the advantages of the United States in the export market are also shaking.According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US LNG export volume in 2018 was about 22.74 million tons.Compared with 2017, which increased to more than three times the previous year, the growth rate was reduced to about 50 %.

The LNG of the United States was levied by 10 % of counter -tariffs by China in September 2018.The export of China in December dropped to 80,000 tons, a year -on -year decrease of 80 %.Observed the export of LNG for the past year. Compared with 2017, which increased to 6 times in 2018, it fell 9 % to approximately 1.96 million tons.

In the context of the shale revolution, the United States has continued to increase production.China has continued to expand its liquefied gas as a replacement energy of coal. The demand continued to expand, which was once the strong export object of LNG.

China's liquefied natural gas imports will increase to four times that by 2040.China is increasing the spot (instant contract) transactions with traditional producers such as Australia as a source of replacement procurement.

For resource -oriented countries that have been taken away by the United States, China's replacement sources of procurement are in charge.According to the Australian government, the overall export volume of liquefied natural gas in 2018 (July 2018 ~ June 2019) will reach 75.6 million tons, an increase of 23 % over 2017.

Steel aluminum products flow into Asia

China also layout for long -term stable procurement.China Petroleum Natural Gas in the fall of 2018 and Qatar State -owned Qatargas, Qatar State -owned Qatargas, signed a 22 -year LNG procurement contract.

Due to the restrictions of imports in the United States, products sold to the country flow to other regions.In March 2018, the United States increased tariffs on steel products and aluminum.US trade statistics show that the import of steel products in 2018 was 30.57 million tons, a decrease of 11 % from the previous year.Among them, Chinese products decreased by 14 %, and the import of Korean products with limited quotas also decreased by nearly 30 %.

Steels that cannot enter the United States flow into the Asian market.Especially in South Korea, centered on hot -rolled rolling boards used for home appliances, in 2018, steel supply to India increased by 10 %, and the overall export was only about 4 %.In addition, Chinese steel (the total of ordinary steel and special steel) exports to Japan after September 2018 exceeded the previous year.

In the field of aluminum products, Canada and other countries have also launched an export offensive against Asia.In 2018, Japan's imports of aluminum -producing products in Canada increased by 29 % over the previous year.

China and the United States have extended the period of trade negotiations that were originally scheduled to be on March 1.Although it depends on the progress of the consultation, some views believe that trade frictions will be alleviated.

However, will the source of procurement be recovered after diversified?If soybeans have reduced prices due to the increase in Brazil's supply, it is good for China to continue to purchase from South America.Xiucheng, the headquarters of Food Management Support Corporation, a consultant company under the business affairs of Ito, believes that even if Sino -US relations have improved, they may hesitate to sign the purchase of American soybeans.

Yamamoto Okuke of the Institute of Two -day Comprehensive Research in Japan pointed out that unlike industrial products such as automotive and semiconductors with huge production equipment, the resource field is more likely to change trading partners.The rewriting new forces may be fixed.