Current affairs perspective
The Sino -US trade war is one of the hottest topics in the world recently.At the end of June, the first Sino -US summit this year at the end of June will attract the attention of the Sino -US summit this year, but both China and the United States do not have much expectations.At that time, the talks between the two sides may involve issues such as North Korea and Taiwan, but the focus of the Xi Special Council will still be Sino -US trade friction.
There are no signs of the Sino -US trade war, with two main reasons.
First of all, the two sides couldn't figure out the bottom line of the other party.What are the basic goals of the United States?Where is China willing to give up?The United States itself does not know what the purpose is to achieve.Trump originally launched a trade war because he believes that Sino -US trade is imbalanced, and China has taken advantage of it, causing a huge trade deficit in the United States and losing many job opportunities. Therefore, he vowed to establish a fair competitive environment.However, with the upgrading of the trade war, especially in the United States, in the United States, Huawei's violation of Iran's embargo requested that Canada's arrest of Huawei chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou and released the national security urgent order to ban Huawei products from entering the US market.It has been transferred to a high -tech war against China.
Chinese confusion is puzzled: Does the United States want money or terrible?If the U.S. goal is to balance the trade between the two parties and establish a fair trade and competitive mechanism, that is, if it requires money, in fact, China can solve the import of imports of American goods and services and further liberalize the Chinese market.If the ultimate goal of the United States is to prevent China's scientific and technological progress, even to curb China's rise through economic, science and technology, security, military and other means, and fighting a new cold war against China, that is, China ’s life, then it will not only solve the two sides.The differences have led to a comprehensive counterattack of China, causing long -term confrontation and conflict between the two countries.
Trump often contradicts many issues.For example, he uses national machines to chase Huawei, but he can talk about everything, and Huawei can also be part of trade negotiations.Obviously, to end the trade war, the United States must first objectively reality, discuss the matter, and resolve trade disputes within the scope of both parties.
Secondly, the trade war on both sides is still limited.Because new tariffs are not suitable for goods that have been exported or during transportation, the difference in this time has made Chinese products in the US market still sufficient, prices are still relatively stable, and consumers have not yet felt the consequences of the trade war.So now Trump can still claim that his trade war is successful.
However, over time, the trade war will cause great losses to China and the United States.In addition to the global economic uncertainty and pressure from other economies, the internal opposition of the two sides will gradually rise.After entering the second half of the year, all kinds of schools started schools one after another, and then a series of holidays, ushered in the climax of the American people's shopping.When ordinary people in the United States find that prices rose, they will question Trump's trade policy.
After the second half of the year, the Presidential election in the United States will also enter the melee stage in 2020, and Trump's internal affairs and diplomacy will be discerned by opponents and voters.Agricultural products in the western region cannot be exported to the largest market in China and when the price rises, even his hardcore supporters will leave him.Trump needs to come up with political achievements. In order to re -election, he had to reach a trade agreement with China as soon as possible to declare diplomatic and economic achievements.
Similarly, the Chinese government will encounter increasing pressure from the inside.When the economy continues and exports continue to decline, the Chinese government is very worried about the stability of domestic society.Many people even secretly support the United States' tough trade policies to China, hoping that the pressure of the United States can force China's political and economic reforms.Some Chinese officials often use reforms to enter the deep water zone as an excuse to delay and even obstruct further reform and opening up.
In fact, some of the requirements of the United States, such as protecting intellectual property rights and stopping government subsidies, are beneficial to the long -term development of the Chinese economy.But there is no external force, these things are difficult to do, so the pressure of the United States is actually a good thing.China wants to do it but has to face it. It cannot make people feel that it is forced to do under the pressure of the United States. Therefore, how the two sides solve the differences through diplomacy are the best ways, rather than blame each other as high -profile like now.
Recently, the rational factions of the two countries have begun to speak.As the trade war was in the ascendant, some people even advocated the decoupling of the two countries, and the US -China Relations Foundation named after the former US President George Middot; Bush Named Foundation on June 12, the first US -China relations leader Award to the former President Carter to commend himPromote the outstanding contribution of US -China relations.This is of great significance. It can be said that the former presidents of the two factions are concerned about the current US -China relations, hoping that the relationship between the two countries will continue to develop peacefully.
In addition, more than 600 retail, manufacturing and high -tech giants in the United States include Walmart, Target, Costco, Nike, etc.He resolved a trade dispute with China, saying that tariffs would hurt American companies and consumers and caused American workers to unemployment.These companies clearly stated in the letter that the upgrade of the trade war does not conform to the interests of the United States and will lose both.
Professor Wang Xisi of Peking University, a well -known international relations scholar in China, also recently called for China to calm down the relationship between the United States and through the communication of different levels and fields to continue the situation of China and the United States and the United States.At the same time, China must make every effort to promote domestic reform and opening up to achieve the high -quality development of China's economy.
Sino -US trade negotiations will be deadlocked for a while.However, after entering the second half of the year, with the changes in the situation, especially when the internal rebound of the two parties increased, the probability of reaching compromise between the two countries was still very high.Of course, the contradiction between China and the United States is not limited to trade conflicts. Even if the trade agreement is reached, the structural contradiction between the two parties still exists.How to properly handle China's rise and global power structure is the greater challenges between the two sides in the future.
The author is a professor of international relations and politics at the University of Bark N from the University of Barker
Senior Visestyle Researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore
