Ye Shengzhou: The timing of the braking is fleeting. Fortunately, the Chinese and US dollar still maintain a strong relationship. It has started with the initiative to start the dual brakes smoothly.

The Sino -US trade war has been upgraded for more than 40 days.The focus of the recent observation refers to whether the US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates; the double brakes refer to whether the Sino -US dollar is directly intervened, the brakes start, and each concession to reach an agreement; the five -layer defense refers to how China maximizes national interests before and after the G20 Osaka Summit.

A focus

The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut this year is a high probability event.The remaining questions are: when will the Fed reduce interest rates?How many times this year?This is the focus of the Sino -US trade war in the future.

On June 12, the US Department of Labor announced that the CPI in May increased by 1.8%year -on -year, less than 1.9%of the expected, and the Fed's interest rate cut pressure increased.After Trump's president, he has been bombarding the Fed and his two chairmen Yellen and Powell to continue to raise interest rates and shrinkage, claiming that if interest rates cut, the United States will win a trade war with China, and the game will end.

From June 18-19, the Fed will hold a interest-bearing meeting.If the interest rate reduction channel is opened this time, it marks that Trump provides strong financial weapons and enters this strong needle. His position must be tougher and will not make it easy; it also marks the further deterioration of the Sino -US trade war.After derivative to scientific and technological warfare, psychological warfare, public opinion war, regulatory war (that is, the single war), the financial war and lasting war officially started.

Double brakes

At present, China and the United States have not rushed on the front line of positive confrontation, and there is room for the start of the brakes when necessary.

The United States still uses carrots to increase the stick.According to a Bloomberg report on June 12, Trump said that he personally put forward a trade agreement with China. Only the Chinese side returned to the original condition that he had recognized a great agreement.

On June 10, Trump publicly threatened that if China -US dollar did not meet at the G20 Osaka Summit, he would impose more tariffs on $ 300 billion or higher than 25%.This conveys three information: First, the Chinese side did not confirm at the time that China and the United States must meet at the Osaka Summit for the first time; 2. Trump is willing to meet with ... and to discuss the problem of trade issues;He will retaliate, which is to meet the Chinese side to meet.

There is a big difference between Trump and hysteria against China.First, the first is an economic man, not a politician.On May 30, he threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico, and after he wanted to force Mo to prevent illegal immigrants from pouring into the United States, he quickly announced the suspension of the implementation of the taxation plan for indefinitely on June 7.It can be seen that the tariff stick is for him, just a tool instead of purpose.

Second, there is a powerful power and pressure of re -election.Although he had previously suffered from personal credit and commercial credit, and the tax records were still concealed so far, he was the most possession of the president of the election commitment for decades, because he adhered to the basic market of public opinion at all costs.

Third, quite narcissistic, vanity, and showing off.Like and enjoy the spotlight on yourself, like to reach a dramatic transaction. As for whether this transaction is feasible and whether it is in the long -term interests of the United States, it is another topic.For example, on June 10, he said in the CNBC program that Huawei did see Huawei as a (national security) threat, but it might be very good as part of the trade negotiation with China as part of the trade negotiation with China.

China also wants to reach an agreement, and has psychological preparations to make more concessions on non -principle issues.However, the U.S.'s asking price is too high, and some of them involve sovereignty and dignity, far exceeding the scope of China.If the United States does not give up at all, then the trade war will not be sold, but it will only carry it.

On June 7th, ... answered questions after the keynote speech of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, and publicly called my American friend and my friend Trump.The Chinese head of state is so publicly named (especially in Russia) is the first time, and it is not surprising. The first summit at the Haihu Lake Manor, Trump's visit to Chinese affairs+reception, G20 Buenos Aires Summit, etc.The goodwill and sincerity of Sino -US relations.CNBC in the United States reported on the same day that his friend RSquo; his friend RSquo; Singapore United Zaobao.com reported on the headline of the Trump ...Fully split.

In my memory, although the Soviet Union, Russia, and the United States have been fighting for a century, Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov often use our American friends as a guest and ridicule.Trump also said many times ... Friends, on April 8, 2018, even in the tweet ... Chairman and I will always be friends, no matter what our trade dispute.

On June 2nd, when the Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe answered the question at the Shangri -La dialogue, he frankly said that China had no strength and willingness to be the boss.... It was also clear in St. Petersburg on the 7th that China did not want to be the boss.These are the biggest doubts of the United States -China will compete with the United States for the only hegemony with the United States.

Five -level defense

Sino -US economic and trade consultations have 17 months, and the trade war has been fighting for 12 months.China recently need to actively prepare five -layer defense, and the staircase ease the impact wave after the trade war is upgraded.

First, the first call of China and the United States was cut with the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.The author wrote on Thursday that the Chinese and US dollar should start the braking mechanism first, starting with the call, and at the same time, before the end of the Federal Reserve's interest conference on June 19, it was not the best time for the first call of China and the United States.Because such as the Fed's announcement, the atmosphere of the trade negotiations is seriously not conducive to the Chinese side. At this time, the Chinese side actively invites the call, which is easily regarded by the United States as weakness.For a period of time, China can consider actively inviting calls, discuss the decision to decide to meet with the G20 Osaka Summit, the 12th round of economic and trade consultations in both parties, and the concession of both parties to reach an agreement and the concession of China on non -principle issues.On the evening of June 18th, the first China and the United States had left the Fed aside whether the Federal Reserve reduced interest rate cuts and called the call, so as to clear the world to the world that they had sincerity to reach the trade war agreement as soon as possible.You can make more concessions.

Second, China and the United States must meet in Osaka for the first time.The Chinese side was not rushing to answer before, but just psychological warfare, hanging appetite, and testing the sincerity and patience of the United States.If China meets differently, it will inevitably be in the global infusion. It is misunderstood that it is good for China. It provides excuses for the United States to continue to increase tariffs and push Trump to Pompeo and Bolton.This is extremely irresponsible to Sino -US relations and the global economy, so it should not happen.

Third, strive to talk with Trump for an hour on June 29.The best communication is face -to -face, shake off the interference of the right -wing officials and assistants in Trump, and satisfy his desire to achieve a big deal.It has been discussed that during one -to -one secret talks, China can only be separated and directly brought up alone, and will not repeat it.

Fourth, make full use of the G20 summit multilateral diplomatic mechanism.Li Xianlong gave a wonderful speech at the opening dinner at Shangri -La on May 31, clearly showing that mediation and persuasion and unwilling to take the initiative to choose the edge.This is exactly what China wants to see and is in line with China's interests.If the majority of countries and major international organizations coordinate the consensus and consensus, and form resonance, consensus, and co -coexistence, it will inevitably form a restraint on the United States insisting on fighting a trade war.Therefore, China needs to adhere to and explain three positions with a softer figure: advocating multilateralism and free trade; emphasizing that China is unwilling to fight and has to fight a trade war; promise to deepen reform and expand opening up.The most important thing is the speech of the Chinese Heads at the G20 Osaka Summit. If it reproduces the praise of the 2017 Davos World Economic Forum, it is China's diplomatic victory.

Fifth, aim at the window period of another signing agreement.If the United States persists without concessions, China does not have to rush to reach an agreement, and has to fight for a long -term trade war.The economy of the two sides will inevitably bear the bulls, which depends on whose patience is longer and stronger.If the US GDP declines significantly in the second and third quarters, the unemployment rate rises,The turbulent decline of the US stock market index will shake Trump's public opinion support rate and have a great pressure on its re -election. Then the APEC summit held in Santiago, Chile from November 16th to 17th, 2019 is the next window period.

China and the United States reach an equal and reciprocity agreement, and are liberated both and the world.China exchanged the termination of Huawei's ban and up to two years of breathing time with the conditions such as trillion dollars of procurement commitments; Trump harvested enough harvest fruit to inject beautiful achievements in re -election.The purpose of the Chinese side's toughness is to force the United States to sit back on the negotiating table, and that China makes concessions less than the United States. It cannot be stimulated by the United States. It is necessary to pay attention to reasonableness, favorableness, and festivals.

When the author studied the North Korean nuclear issue, he browsed all the resolution texts of the Security Council's sanctions and Speaking records after each voting. He once followed and quoted a detail: On September 11, 2017, the United States Permanent Representative to the United Nations Heali resolved in the Security Council 2375.After passing the unanimous pass, if there is no strong relationship between President Trump and President Xi Xi, today's resolution is impossible.Looking at the Chinese record on the official website of the Security Council, I was surprised by the description and positioning of the strong relationship. I thought that there was a problem with the translation, and then checked the English record. Heali was indeed Strong Relationship.

The timing of the brake is fleeting.Fortunately, China and the United States still maintain a strong relationship. They are willing to benefit the peaceful prosperity of Sino -US relations and the world economy. It has started with the initiative to start the microphone and successfully start the double brakes.In that speech, He Li's high praise of Greatly Appreciate and his team's team and his team in the field of nuclear non -proliferation areas are now looking forward to close cooperation in the economic and trade field?

(Note: The author is an independent commentator, WeChat public account: sswypl.)