Author: Zhou Yangshan
British Conservative Prime Minister Mey announced on June 7th. The conservative party leader election procedure was launched on June 10, and it is expected to produce new prime ministers at the end of July.At present, the conservative party is struggling with each other, and 10 members of parliament have been involved in the competence, and the competition is very fierce.
Among them, the highest voices were the Brexit generals and former former foreign minister Johnson Johnson.He said that if the European Union failed to provide better Brexit conditions, Britain should not pay the European Union for £ 39 billion in Brexit breakup fees, which means that it depends to the end.
U.S. President Trump recently visited the United Kingdom. Before the trip, he publicly called on Britain to leave the European Union without an agreement and refused to pay the breakup fee.He deliberately violated diplomatic taboos who did not involve his domestic politics and understood the position of supporting Johnson.Johnson emphasized that he was the only candidate for the newly established Brexit leader Farachi, and the Labor Party leader Cobin.According to the latest polls, Johnson currently leads other opponents with 43%support.
In terms of the European Union, of course, the United Kingdom cannot be allowed to drag again. The two sides agreed that on October 31st Halloween. Regardless of whether there is an agreement, Britain will officially leave the EU.According to the previous evaluation of the media, if the final decision is hard Brexit, that is, completely withdraw from the European single market, stop the free flow of people between Britain and Europe, and is no longer under the jurisdiction of the European courts.The average loss of about 3,000 pounds will be afforded.As for the soft Brexit solution with agreements, each person is about 1,000 pounds.
In addition, it is estimated that the real estate prices in the UK will slip after Brexit, and the pound will depreciate by 20 %. The financial industry in London will be greatly moved to the European continent, and it is estimated that it will cause a $ 1 trillion loss.Whether Northern Ireland will further choose to go out of Britain, merge into the Republic of Ireland, and whether Scottish will choose to be independent of British independence. It will also be the national division crisis that Britain will face in the future.But hard Brexit is a wayless way.Under the shock of populist atmosphere, the Brexit Party has become the largest party in the UK in the European Parliament election.Many British people have an iron -hearted, and they are not reckless. They just do not care about all the Brexit.
Look at the UK and think about yourself.Will such a courageous and firm political appeal appear in the upcoming Taiwan election?Will the Taiwan independence power advocate the hard Brexit of the Taiwan version?Many people say that Taiwan independence is a fake issue, so you don't have to take it seriously.However, three years ago, most British people also believed that Brexit was just a fake issue. The referendum would not be able to pass, but the result was to be false. The Prime Minister Cameron, who was proposed to hold Brexit referendum, immediately stepped down to show his responsibility.It can be seen that only the true and responsible politicians will ask real issues and let the public make true choices.
Some people may say: don't worry, the Trump administration will definitely help Taiwan defense.What's more, we pay so much military fire every year, and Americans will definitely not recognize accounts.But everyone knows that if Lai Qingde or Tsai Ing -wen really dares to publicly declare legal Taiwan independence, I am afraid that they will be determined.
Why?Because most voters do not believe it!I don't believe that the United States will really fight Taiwan independence for Taiwan, nor does it believe that the CCP will tolerate Taiwan's independence and leave China. It is precisely because of the mainland's anti -state division law that Taiwan has less of real Taiwan independence options.Although politicians can cultivate natural independence, the pattern on both sides of the strait cannot achieve real Taiwan independence.But how can such frustrating emotions be resolved?
(The author is a professor at the National Golden Gate University)
