Wu Jianshu: The special geographical environment of the Indo -Pacific region will suppress the intensity and strength of the Sino -US game. The relationship between the two countries will not evolve into a comprehensive relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
On June 1st, the US Department of Defense officially issued the Indo -Pacific Strategic Report.For the first time in the report, the U.S. government clearly stated that China is the destroyer of the amendment of the country and the existing international order.Therefore, the United States regards China as a country that needs to be strategically required.But at the same time, in this report, the United States also mentioned that China and the United States need to strengthen contact and exchanges between China and the United States to reduce the risk of military conflicts in strategic misjudgment of each other's intention to each other.Moreover, this report does not rule out the possibility of cooperation between China and the United States in the Asia -Pacific region. At the same time, the report also claims that the United States will support and encourage China to maintain prosperous and stable operations in the Indo -Pacific region.
For a long time, many international issue observers and some international mainstream media have consistently believed that with the increasing strength of China and the United States, China and the United States have become inevitable in the future.However, this understanding ignores such a basic fact: Although China and the United States are getting closer in strength, the game between China and the United States is carried out by the background of the geographical environment that is not conducive to its own.This largely limits the strength and intensity of the game between China and the United States.Therefore, in the context of both China and the United States facing the disadvantage of themselves, China and the United States cannot be in high -intensity confrontation like the United States and Soviet relations.
India's special geographical environment will suppress the intensity and strength of the game between China and the United States
For China, the geographical environment is in a very unfavorable situation.The east is an endless Pacific Ocean.In addition, in this direction, China has to face the solid politics and military alliances formed by the two major marine powers in the world and the United States and Japan. This alliance has been in the Cold War.Expansion to the Pacific.Therefore, China conducts strategic expansion to the east, and the chance of success is zero.To the north of China is Russia with a strong nuclear arsenal. In history, this country has defeated strong enemies who have repeatedly defeated the invasion. In addition, it has a powerful nuclear arsenal inherited from the Soviet Union, so China will never take risks to fight Russia to fight against RussiaCome north to advance strategic expansion.
The west of China is Afghanistan, known as the Empire Cemetery.This country has repeatedly defeated the invasion of Britain, the Soviet Union, and the United States during the heyday. Therefore, it is also very difficult to conduct strategic expansion to the west.The south of China is a medium -sized super military country Vietnam.This country has defeated the number one superpower in the conventional war more than 40 years ago, and its military power is also daunting.China wants to defeat it, conduct strategic expansion south, and pay unbearable strategic costs.Therefore, China cannot develop south.At the same time, China's current foreign policy is to get along with neighboring countries and cooperate with mutual benefit.
For the United States, if you want to curb China through the Indo -Pacific Strategy, you must build a military alliance system against China in the Indo -Pacific region, similar to the NATO League system built by the United States in the North Atlantic region.However, the United States wants to build such a military alliance system similar to NATO in the Indo -Pacific region, which will be limited by huge geographical factors and difficulties.Because in the Indo -Pacific region, several important countries in this potential military alliance system, Japan, South Korea, India (potential allies in the United States), and Australia, except Japan and South Korea, are thousands of kilometers apart from each other, regardless of whetherIt is difficult to complete the command and coordination, and the deployment and launch of joint operations in normal times.
Therefore, China can use this time difference and space difference. During the usual or wartime, the countries in the alliance system in this alliance system are broken, so that they cannot take a joint and consistent diplomatic and military operations on China.In other words, the special geographical environment of the Indo -Pacific region is determined that the United States cannot build a NATO military alliance system like the North Atlantic region.The NATO system can collectively take consistent actions to the Soviet Union or Russia, and in a special geographical environment in the Indo -Pacific region, the United States cannot build such an alliance system similar to NATO to curb China.This also greatly limits the intensity and strength of the Chinese and American games in the Indo -Pacific region, so that Sino -US relations will not evolve into a comprehensive confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Sino -US relations may change in the future
Generally speaking, Sino -US relations may change in three aspects in the future.First, the two Congress of China and the United States gradually realized that the two sides faced the common geographical difficulties of both sides in the Indo -Pacific region.Therefore, in the context of this geopolitical environment, China and the United States have not been seriously threatened by each other, and the two parties will shift from current fierce confrontation to limited cooperation.Second, with the increasingly reduced gap between the military strength between China and the United States, the probability of a fire in the Indo -Pacific region in the Indo -Pacific region will also increase.Therefore, in order to avoid such incidents, China and the United States will strengthen exchanges and communication in the military field, and it will not even rule out that the two countries will establish a new communication mechanism for such incidents or crises to prevent the two countries from being strategically misjudged in strategic misjudgments.Major military conflicts occurred with each other.
Third, China and the United States may resume the cultural exchanges between China and the United States, which are now in a low tide, so that the nationals of the two countries to re -understand each other's culture and history, as well as all aspects of society, thereby eliminating the long -term misunderstandings of the two countries' nationals. From the civilian levelPromote the improvement of Sino -US relations.
From the perspective of a wider strategic perspective, the strategy of China and the United States is subject to the huge restrictions of the special geographical environment of the Indo -Pacific region, and neither the two parties cannot make their strategic intentions vividly.The future prospects of Sino -US relations are not pessimistic. After discounting or confrontation, it is possible to cooperate.The Indo -Pacific Strategy Report released by the US Department of Defense has not ruled out the possibility of China and the United States in future cooperation in the future.Assumptions.
(Note: The author is an assistant researcher at the Chahar Society. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.
