According to the Taiwan Wangdao News Agency, the Sino -US trade war was hot and heated, and after extending the competition in the field of trading to the leading position of science and technology, it seemed that it was possible to further spread to the financial field.A report from the New York Times explained that Chinese companies listed on the US stocks are not transparent, and there may be state forces behind them. The U.S. hardcore urges Trump to comprehensively restrict Chinese companies enter Wall Street and prohibit legal persons and natural persons from prohibiting legal persons and natural persons.Invest in Chinese companies listed in U.S. stocks.It is believed that China Enterprises' funding in the United States is equivalent to providing Chinese -funded nutrition in the United States, nourishing them to confront the United States, and is very detrimental to winning the Sino -US trade and scientific and technological war.
Strictly speaking, this argument is ridiculous and unrealistic.The reason is very simple. At the moment of financial globalization, corporate funds and structure composition are very complicated. Take the listing of funds for listing in the U.S. stocks as an example. The proportion of funds from the United States or foreign investors is difficult to determine.And if you return to the essence of the securities market, as a fundraising tool or place, under the globalization of finance, the demand for listing of enterprises is quite flexible. Once Trump refuses to be capable of being able to listed in the U.S. stock market (usually better physique and development potential for development potential,Full of enterprises), other securities markets must be welcomed with arms, and the United States will only lose.
Not to mention, the ripple effect brought by the financial war, I am afraid that it will be seriously injured.Observing the factors that have caused a sharp shock in US stocks in recent times, we can find that almost all are related to the rise of the Sino -US trade war, and the net outflows of US stocks on the same day or the week.If the trade war is upgraded to the financial war, the market panic effect will undoubtedly allow U.S. stocks to step into shorts from the head. For Trump who likes to use US stocks as a barometer, this will never be seen.
Therefore, whether it is standing in the United States or China, the financial war should not be included in possible options.As before whether we should adopt the currency war (RMB depreciation) in mainland China to respond to the U.S. sanctions on this issue, the currency war (one of the financial warfare) can only be used as a bargaining chip on the negotiating table.Because this is a behavior that is damaged and unfavorable.Similarly, for the United States, if the financial war starts, it may be the United States, not the mainland.
The financial market liberalization and financial crisis tolerance is often low. It is still remembered in the 2008 financial tsunami, and the degree of affected regions in open financial markets such as Europe and the United States are more serious than mobile regulations such as the mainland and Taiwan.Because the control behavior makes movement of funds not so convenient and rapid, even the incremental impact on the financial face is reduced.If Trump insists on launching the financial war, it will not be difficult to re -act on the financial tsunami in 2008. In the end, the worst injury may be the United States.
Compared with the United States, it will not launch a financial war at will, and Beijing cannot misjudge the situation. It misjudge the $ 1.12 trillion public debt or sovereign wealth fund held by US $ 200 billion in stocks.Because whether it is US debt or U.S. stocks, compared with the scale or transaction volume of the overall market, the proportion held by the mainland is not high, and the role that can be played is quite limited.In fact, US stocks' transaction volume (only calculated only two major stocks of New York and Nasdaq) about $ 150 billion in one day, and the 200 billion US dollars of stocks held in the hands of the China Sovereign Fund Fund, it really wants to sell it.Time can digest light.The size of the US debt market is as high as 21 trillion dollars, and the 1.12 trillion ratio in the mainland's hands is only about 5%. Sale will only cause a little ripple, which will not play much.What's more, the short -term price fluctuations brought by selling will also cause damage to the foreign exchange reserves of mainland China, which is not conducive to its own financial market stability.
So far, in order to force the other party, in order to force the other party to concession, the brain moves to financial weapons, which is obviously not wise.Compared with the trade war or scientific and technological warfare, the financial war will not be zero -sum games. Between the misconducts of advantages and disadvantages, the disadvantages will undoubtedly be far greater than profit.For the mainland that is committed to integrating into the globalization system, in the face of the progress of the United States, what should be done at this stage is not to dance with Trump to intensify the opposition between the two parties, but to actively prove that it is safe to maintain the global of economic and trade and finance globally.Determination.
Judging from several recent incidents, not every country or enterprise agrees with Trump's approach.Business Bank (the second largest bank) recently conducted a questionnaire survey on 2,000 German companies. Interviewed German companies generally stated that they believe that China is a more reliable trading partner than doing business with the United States.The Times of the British also came out that Mey and Trump met and had rejected the United States in person to disable Huawei equipment in the British 5G network.
Under the trend of economic and trade and finance globalization, each country has its own national interests, and the United States is also pursuing its own national interests.In the long run, the mainland still has to strengthen the pace of financial reform and the market opening up in order to thicken themselves.Only when you have a sound physique and a complete system can you be easily subject to others, and you can have a bargaining chip game.This is what Beijing must think carefully when the Sino -US trade friction is intensifying.
