Cao Xin: There are two striking trends in the Sino -US game: one is the third force outside China and the United States; the other is that the trend of offensive and defensive trends began to appear between China and the United States.

The focus of world public opinion last week was still being launched around the evolution of Sino -US economic and trade disputes.In the past week, two striking trends around the current China and the United States: first, the third force appeared outside China and the United States; the other was that the offensive and defensive situation began to appear between China and the United States.the trend of.

The third force and its voice

In the context of the inseparable world economic industry chain, China and the United States, as the world's first and second economic powers, have inevitably affected all countries in the relevant industrial chain.In the case of no solution in the dispute, these countries began to speak up at the 25th Asian Future International Exchange Conference hosted by Japan Economic News in Tokyo last week.

Voice of Germany reported that Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir called on the United States and China to resolve trade disputes through dialogue.He also called on the world to accept China's rising scientific and technological strength and said that the Congress used Huawei products as much as possible.The Associated Press reported that Mahathir also emphasized in his speech that the United States cannot expect that it is always in the leading position of science and technology.

The speech of Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister and Treasury Secretary Wang Ruijie was even more direct. According to Lianhe Zaobao, Wang Ruijie said: In order to transition to the stable world order, countries have implemented a new model of constructive cooperation in China and the United States.He emphasized: none of the world's countries do not want to choose a side station. As long as China and the United States can develop a new model of constructive cooperation, Asian countries shoulder greater responsibilities in establishing new global order, and continue to cooperate with the international community to deal with global topics togetherThe challenges bring to the next stable world order.

At the same time, Wang Ruijie pointed out that Sino -US relations are complex and multi -faceted, and to a large extent, although the two countries are competing in strategic and economic space, China is also the largest trading partner and the largest debt country in the United States.Therefore, the establishment of a constructive new cooperation model is in line with the interests of both parties, but the two parties must start from accepting new reality.

At the same time, Singapore Prime Minister Li Xianlong's speech at the opening ceremony of the Shangri -La dialogue this year can almost be considered a declaration of the new alliance.

According to a number of international media reports, Li Xianlong opened his mind: Sino -US relations are the most important bilateral relations in the world today. How to deal with each other's tension and friction will determine the future trend of the entire international environment.

He made it clear that in fact, the United States' allies in Asia, including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand and Australia, and many regional partners, including Singapore, are China.These countries hope that the United States and China can resolve the differences between each other, and also hope that they can continue to maintain friendly relations with both China and the United States.

Li Xianlong emphasized that if Sino -US relations continue to be tension and uncertain, even if there is no serious conflict in the end, it will cause huge damage to the world.Many important issues, such as the situation of the Korean Peninsula, non -diffusion, and climate change, if there are no comprehensive participation of both China and the United States and other countries, it will be difficult to solve.Economic losses are not only one to two percentage points of the world's GDP, but losing the global integrated market and production chain, as well as the benefits of sharing knowledge and breakthroughs in all aspects.These developments have made countries develop more rapidly.

Li Xianlong toughly declare: The small country as small as Singapore is limited and cannot affect the decisions of the great power, but this does not mean that we are completely dominated by others.

He pointed out: There are many opportunities for small and medium -sized countries to cooperate, deepen economic cooperation, promote regional integration, and establish multilateral institutions.In this way, small countries can unite to expand their influence, and adopt a common position on their own topics, including trade, security, technology and other aspects.

The above speech not only shows the position that is not completely dominated by others, but also draws a clear camp independent outside China and the United States on the team. This is the majority of small and medium -sized countries.Common position.

Considering that the development of these countries cannot leave the World Economic Industry Chain, if the full war of the Sino -US trade war leads to the interruption of the world's industrial supply chain, their above positions will be serious and will take major practical actions.

Sino -US offensive and defensive situation changes

In the past week, under the pen in major media in the world, the attack and defensive situation of Sino -US economic and trade disputes has begun to change.China has begun counterattack:

The first is to launch the rare earth trade.

The China National Development and Reform Commission and Xinhua News Agency both stated that they used China's rare earth manufacturing products to curb China's development and delusion!The content of the statement emphasizes the global division of labor, but at the same time, it is mentioned that if anyone wants to use the products manufactured by our export of rare earth, which is used to curb the suppression of China's development, then I think the people and the Chinese people of the Central Soviet Area of the south of the Gannan will be unhappy.of.

Lianhe Zaobao reported that after Trump announced a 25%tariff on Chinese products worth $ 200 billion, China also announced on the 13th of this month that it will start from June 1 on June 1 to US $ 60 billion in the United States.5%to 25%tariffs are levied by goods, of which tariffs on rare earth concentrates increased from 10%to 25%.

So what about China's rare earth ore?According to data quoted by the US Geological Survey quoted by Reuters, in 2018, the US net import dependence on rare earth was 100%, of which 80%of the rare earth compounds and metals from China accounted for 80%.With Japan, the share is 6%, 3%, and 3%, and most of the rare earth compounds and metal raw materials imported from the United States from the latter three countries are middle products from China.In other words, the United States is highly dependent on China in rare earth.In addition, in 2017, 81%of rare earth outputs from the world came from China.

In addition, according to the Russian satellite news agency reported on May 27: In the context of the trade war initiated by the United States, more and more people are worried that China, which accounts for 80%-90%of the world's rare earth market, can use its rare earth advantages to reduce these productsExit for the United States.

What is the importance of rare earth to the United States?According to a Bloomberg report on May 29, from Lockheed Martin's F-35 joint attack fighter to guiding missiles and laser for determining goals, everything depends on these rare earth elements to perform key functions.

Which American companies will be affected?The complex missiles produced by Thor, Lockheed Martin, and BAE Systems use rare earths in cruise systems and sensors.In addition, Apple uses rare earth to produce speakers, lenses and vibration devices.

Secondly, establish an unreliable entity list system.

On May 31, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce of China said that China will establish an unreliable entity list system. Those foreign enterprises, organizations or organizations, or seriously damage the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises for non -commercial purposes for non -commercial purposesIndividuals will be included in the unreliable entity list.

The general response of international public opinion is that this is aimed at the United States countermeasures.At the same time, smart international media also noticed that as long as the US companies are honest, they will not be included in the list as long as they are honest.Japanese Economic News judges that once a company is included in this list, it will be difficult to do business with Chinese companies.However, if these foreign companies transfer customers from China to other countries, they may also have a certain impact on China, so it is expected that China will choose companies carefully listed in the list.

There is no need to concession.

In this way, the ball was kicked to Trump, and he was about to start the re -election preparation of the next president.There are many complaints in domestic farmers in the United States.What is the next stepWhat about confrontation with China?What will happen to the result of confrontation?

The South China Morning Post quoted Sandeep Baliga, a professor of the Department of Management and Decision -making Science at the Northwestern University of the United States, said: I guess that Trump will eventually yield because he has shrunk, and his political impact is getting more increasingly increasingly impact.The worse.He has a last deadline.

At the same time, Trump has a lot of rebounds and sequelae in the treatment of bilateral economic and trade relations with Europe, Japan and South Korea, and even Mexico and India.

Between China and the United States, offense and defense will be easy.

The two latest trends of the Sino -US trade dispute last week have significant reference value for judging the prospects of this dispute.

(Note: The author is Secretary -General of the International Public Opinion Research Center of the Chahar Society and a researcher at the Peninsula Peace Research Center. This article only represents the author's personal point of view.