Zheng Yongnian column
If people have discussed the most in the past few years, how can China and the United States avoid the trap of Xunxidide. Recently, as the trade war between the two countries has continued to deteriorate, the question of people's thinking will no longer fall into the trap of Xunxione, and but the trap of Xunxede, and the trap, and the trap, and the trap, and the trap, and the trap, and the trap, and the trap, and,, will not fall into the trap.What is this trap.In fact, for many years, China and the United States have always been different in the knowledge of Xunxidd's traps.In the United States, realists, especially the hardcores of China, have been discussing how to conflict between China and the United States since the 1990s; in China, people discuss the most to avoid such a possible conflict.
If the relationship between China and the United States today is only understood as a trade conflict, it will be too simple.In today's Sino -US relations, there are at least three battlefields, including: 1. Trump and some trading officials in their teams, they focus on the trade balance, trade fairness, and rules between China and the United States;The U.S. Congress -led Technology Cold War.There are indispensable differences in the United States Democratic and Republican Party almost all issues, and they have a high degree of consensus on the Chinese issue; 3. Security and military systems try to lead Sino -US relations to the Cold War in the traditional sense, that is,The Cold War of the United States and Sutra.
Obviously, in these three battlefields, the trade war is relatively easy to deal with, but it can also become the starting point of the Cold War and even the traditional Cold War.Historically, the trade between the country is not zero -sum game, but it is more win -win, but war (whether it is a hot war or a Cold War) is often zero -sum game.It can be considered that as far as the relations of great powers are concerned, today's Sino -US trade war is an inevitable product for the development of Sino -US relations to this historical node.Naturally, the trade war is not the end of the conflict between the two countries, but the starting point (or fuse) of different forms of conflict.It can be expected that there is not much room for reconciliation between the two countries on trade issues, and even if there is reconciliation, it may only be temporary.
A simple reality is that China and the United States are the two largest economies in the world, and they have great toughness and digestion. Unless the trade between the two countries suddenly decouples, it will not have a huge impact on the economy of the two countries.This situation is manifested in negotiations between the two countries, and no one will give excessive concessions to each other.Today, China and the United States' trade negotiations have greatly exceeded the issue of pure trade, and have evolved into a contest of strength.
However, regardless of how the trade war develops, the hot war between the two countries is unlikely, and it does not need, because both countries are nuclear powers.Furthermore, it is impossible to solve the problem with traditional war between China and the United States.The United States has not been able to solve problems through traditional wars throughout the world, let alone a big country like China.For China, the United States is more likely to use ideological weapons used by traditional Cold War, including democracy and human rights.However, all factors related to ideology can cause trouble for the other party, but far from making the other party yield.If there is a problem with the ideology, it is basically a problem within a country.As long as the ideology of this country is attractive to the society in the country, it is difficult to play a subversive role in external ideology.
Whether it is a trade war or other conflicts, these are actually only the appearance of Sino -US relations.The real national interests of the United States have never been determined by these.In terms of its essence, the most important purpose of US foreign policy is to maintain its dominant position in the world, or people's traditionally hegemony.In order to maintain the highest national interests of hegemony, everything can be done in the United States, both at the national level, corporate organization or individual level.In the name of national interests, the United States also has the morality given to itself, and it is easy to achieve internal consensus and obtain internal support.
The national interest logic of the United States can make people extremely pessimistic about the future of Sino -US relations.In any case, so far, no external force can make the United States change this logic.Unless fundamental changes have occurred within the United States, this logic will continue to run across the world.Regardless of whether they like or not, most countries are trying to survive under this logic of the United States, whether these countries are enemies in the United States or American allies.
However, from another perspective, if this logic see through, people's relationships between China and the United States will not be so pessimistic.In fact, the two countries may also avoid zero -sum games, or a battle of hegemony that you died and I live, that is, the Xurgendide trap mentioned earlier.
What will be the worst situation in Sino -US relations?
In reality, it is not difficult for people to make the worst plans to Sino -US relations.The question is, what is the worst case?Since the hot war is impossible and unnecessary, China and the United States may slide to a new form of the Cold War.The New Cold War means that Sino -US relations will not completely repeat the situation in the past in the United States and the Soviet Union.What will happen to the New Cold War?This first requires people to see what the old Cold War is like?What new factors can avoid the old cold war?Or what China can do to avoid the occurrence of the old -fashioned cold war and the worst disruptive errors.Of course, it should be pointed out that the disruptive errors here are for China and the United States.Once this happens, both China and the United States will be a victim of other behaviors or their own behavior.
The old Cold War pattern is a state of war between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the relationship between the two countries has the following characteristics.First, the conflict is considered to be regarded as the enemy or the enemy group, and at the same time cooperates with the country facing the same enemy or enemy group.The results of this conflict or cooperation form two opposition groups.Second, in the case of the two major opponent groups, the so -called international order means that there must be a minimum order between the two major groups, that is, there are some formal or informal rules to ensure the international to ensure the internationalThe minimum safety and stability of society.For any big country, successful diplomacy means capable of creating and maintaining these rules. It also provides a space for survival when it realizes its own national interests, because once the other party has no living space, the Cold War may be possible.Evolution into a hot battle.
At the international level, how does the two major groups deal with the relationship between the two countries?In terms of experience, the two major super powers have gradually established some game rules through trial and error in different forms, thereby forming the so -called cold war order.These rules intend to prevent the relationship between the two countries from evolving into a world disaster, that is, the nuclear war.There are three rules that are relatively obvious.The first unwritten rule is that they do not use nuclear weapons from each other or their allies, although sometimes the two countries often use nuclear weapons to threaten each other.Article 2 The rules are not direct military confrontation and conflict between the two major superpowers.Article 3 The rule is a limited war and conflict between the two camps, that is, the war conducted by the agent, or the agent war.
However, rather than the struggle between the two major groups, it is better to be the construction of the order of the two major groups.In other words, the construction of internal order between the two major groups is far more important than the competition between the two groups. It is mainly manifested in the use of the planned economic model of the Soviet Union to integrate the internal order, while the US group uses the market economy model.Integrate group.To a large extent, the Soviet Union, which claimed to be Marxist country at the time, violated the theory of Marx's economy is the foundation and politics is the theory of upper -level buildings.
The two economic models are different, determining the economic development differences between the two major groups, the legality of the ruling groups of various countries within the group, and the different integration methods of the two major groups (that is, the compulsoryness of the planned economy and the market economyVolunteer) and its economic capabilities that support the level of military development of the two major groups.Although the collapse of the Berlin Wall has its external factors, it is mainly that its internal is already decaying.
Although Sino -US relations will evolve to the past, the United States and the Soviet Union relationships need to be continuously observed, and China also needs to pay attention to some possible situations (such as the American agent war), but it is necessary to realize that today’s Sino -US relations are far from that at that time.American and Soviet relations.Inside, China has established China's own basic economic system defined as a socialist market economy.Although the West regards China as national capitalism, this does not reflect the facts, because in fact China's non -state -owned departments have accounted for more than 60%of the national economy.What's more important is that today's Chinese economy is an open economy, which is with the timeThe closed economy of the Soviet Union is very different.Politically, although Chinese politics is still evolving, it is difficult to evolve into a government like the West, and in terms of large -scale construction, resource mobilization, and cope with the crisis including war, China's politics shows hugeability.
Sino -US relations Future Map
Internationally, China did not form its own exclusive group like the Soviet Union at the time.Since the end of the Old Cold War, although the United States has begun to strengthen China as its new enemy to strengthen its original alliance or build a new alliance, China still has not tried to build its own alliance.The strategic partnership emphasized in China for decades is not the alliance of Western consciousness, because this partnership is aimed at the problems faced by relevant countries, and the alliance is specifically targeted at the third country.
Because of this, the United States' efforts to shape China as their enemies are not successful. Even the American traditional allies such as the EU countries and some allies in Asia are difficult to regard China as enemies because China does not pose a threat to them.However, China does not mean that China is easy to be isolated; in fact, on the contrary, the openness of China's economy to a large extent determines the connection and relationship between China and the world.Over the years, China has been the world's largest trading country, which means the relationship between China and the world.
From these fundamentals, it is not difficult for people to outline the future pictures of Sino -US relations.
As mentioned above, the trade war is not great for the two major countries of China and the United States, and the fire war is not the rational choice of the two countries. The only feasible is the technical cold war, or some of the United States calls the economic war.However, the economic war between two deep -dependent economies is not only a clear winner except for both defeats.An isolated United States cannot fight the economic war, that is, if the United States wants to fight with China, the United States will also form an international alliance to reject China.However, the reality is that the United States can reject China in the name of national security or national interests in the local market, and even some alliances in the United States can reject China because of the pressure of the United States, but the United States may squeeze China out of the world.market.
The prerequisite here is: China itself needs to continue to open, or even greater opening up.And this is also the efforts of China in recent years.China not only promises to have greater open policies, but also increases and deepen openness at the level of policy practice.At the world's economy, China is implementing a large -scale going global plan, including the establishment of Asian Infrastructure Investment Banks and the Belt and Road Initiative.These help in the deep integration of China and the world, rather than the opposite.
More importantly, the Cold War of the United States and China is a crisis and an opportunity for China, that is, China's technological innovation opportunities.As Dr. Li Joseph's volume of Chinese science and technology history stated that in a long history, Chinese technology is far ahead of the West.The West has only greatly surpassed China and other non -Western countries in recent hundred years.However, after decades of reform and opening up, China has accumulated a lot of scientific and technological knowledge. China is not only the largest technology application market, but also the potential to become the largest innovation market.
In addition, as long as it continues to open, it is difficult for the western government to completely prevent the spread of scientific and technological knowledge.Giving up the huge Chinese market means that the cost of invention of Western technology will increase greatly.Although China's middle class is smaller than the United States in proportion, the absolute scale of the middle class has been caught up or even surpassed the United States.Because of the huge consumption power in the Chinese market, there is no capital to abandon the Chinese market.
China is already the second largest economy in the world, and it has been accelerating, and it is difficult for the United States to go isolated again. Therefore, it is inevitable that the two countries collide on the international stage.The United States has neither the ability and methods to change China, nor the ability and methods to block China. In the future, Sino -US relations may show a situation of one world and two systems, that is, there are two relatively independent economies.Both economies are open and have a certain degree of exchanges. For other countries, they are selected. Some countries and the United States have more interaction. Other countries and China have more exchanges. More countries areBoth sides are interacted to maximize the national interests.
The author is a professor at the East Asia Research Institute of Singapore's National University
The article only represents personal point of view
