The 2019 Gliti -La Dialogue opened in Singapore on May 31. Wei Fenghe, a Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Defense, attended and delivered a keynote speech on June 2.In the past, some Western countries often regarded incense as difficulties to China.This year, the Chinese Defense Minister's attendance and the background of Sino -US economic and trade friction made this current incense more special.

China sent such a high -level and large -scale delegation, what kind of signals do you mainly want to release to the outside world?What is the prospect of Sino -US relations?Observer.com invited senior consultants of the Chinese Military Science Society who had participated in the Xianghui many times, and Yao Yunzhu retired major general of the China -US Defense Relations Center of Military Sciences to interpret the major general.

[Interview/Observer.com Wu Liqun]

Observer.com: The 2019 Chari -La dialogue just closed in Singapore today.China sent a high -level delegation to attend the meeting this time. What do you think of the main purpose?

Yao Yunzhu: China is indeed a high -standard attending Shangri -La dialogue this year, and has sent 54 delegations, including 13 general officers.I think it should be viewed in several aspects:

First of all, the participation of the Minister of Defense showed that China clearly recognized that as a large country's army, he was responsible and obliged to attend an important regional security forum, and played its role on the forum to reflect its value.This is in line with China's own interests.

Secondly, the current world is in a big change, and there are some problems in regional security. The regional countries and international community hope to hear the Chinese army's views on major issues and hear the voice of China.

Third, the Xianghui is a large -scale regional security forum. This year, there are 44 government delegations attending the meeting this year, and there are more than 600 representatives, including the defense ministers of 28 countries.There are more than 500 media interviews.This is not only an important occasion that indicates the position of China's attitude, but also a diplomatic occasion that makes friends and solve problems.During more than two days of sessions, the military leaders of various countries and defense leaders held more than 200 two -party and multilateral meeting.Of course, the Chinese delegation also made full use of this opportunity to interact high efficiency in a short period of time, make friends, talk about problems, and promote cooperation.

Generally speaking, the Chinese Defense Minister attended the Shangri -La dialogue and explained that the policy proposition of the Chinese army was that it was a successful.Judging from the participation situation, it has also achieved great success.

June 2, 2019, Singapore, Singapore, Chinese State Councilor and Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe and attended the 18th Shangri -La Dialogue and delivered a speech.Image source: Visual China

Observer.com: Since the Sino -US trade war is not able to solve it according to expectations, Sino -US relations show a rapid decline, and the smell of gunpowder at the fragrance meeting also looks stronger.

Yao Yunzhu: The Shangri -La dialogue will have a big background, that is, China -US relations have fallen rapidly in the past year, trade negotiations have no results, and economic and trade conflicts have spilled effects, spreading to politics, military, and humanities.In various fields such as technology, the deterioration of Sino -US relations constitutes the background of this incense meeting.Starting from the keynote speech of Premier Li Xianlong's opening dinner, the development prospects of Sino -US relations and the impact on regional and international security situations have become the most involved in the Shangri -La dialogue.It can obviously feel that China and the United States are evil, which is a major situation that the Asia -Pacific region and the world are worried.

Observer.com: What do you think of this year's issue settings?

Yao Yunzhu: Xianghui usually starts with the Special Speech of the US Defense Minister. This year, the China National Defense Minister's speech was added.The US agent defense Changsha Nahan explained the U.S. Indo -Pacific strategy in detail.Corresponding to it, the content of the Chinese defense chief's speech is that China and international security cooperation.

In addition, at the conference where all personnel participated, they also set up the future direction and changing Asian security order and challenges of the Korean Peninsula for regional hotspots and current urgent security issues, conflicts in the field of competition, and ensure regions to ensure the region.Issues such as toughness and stability.At the same time, at the six parallel groups, issues such as network security, maritime cooperation, and strategic interests and competition in the South Pacific have also been set up.I think the setting of the topic has taken care of the extensive and different security concerns of the attendees, and has a certain capacity. At the same time, it also seizes the current most urgent security issues, which is conducive to specific discussions.

Observer.com: This time, Wei Feng and Minister of Defense Wei Fenghe attended the meeting, and mentioned trade frictions and Taiwan issues in his speech.What do you think he wants to release the outside world?

Yao Yunzhu: Minister Wei had a 50 -minute special speech on the second day of the meeting, which is one of the most striking activities of this Shangri -La dialogue.At the beginning, Minister Wei stated that he was coming for exchange and mutual trust and cooperation for peace.

Judging from his speech and answering questions, he is trying to practice his goal.He believes that China has chosen the path of peaceful development, openness, tolerance, win -win cooperation and mutual learning of civilization in the world's major changes.And specifically introduced the policies and actions of the Chinese government and the Chinese army to maintain world peace and prosperity.He is also very frank and straightforward to the participants to show his views on issues such as Taiwan, the South China Sea, the Korean Peninsula, and Sino -US relations.

Judging from the passage, his speech emphasized that cooperation should be cooperated to solve the problem together.Of course, when talking about the Taiwan issue, the signal he passed was also very firm and clear: China must be unified and must be unified. How can there be no unity?If someone dares to split Taiwan from China, the Chinese army has no choice, and it will definitely fight at all at all costs.

Observer.com: Sino -US competition is a hot topic, whether in the fragrance and other forums.For example, the famous American scholar Graham Middot; Ellison's slukendide trap proposed by Elison has always been controversial.Starting from this theory, some people believe that there will be a battle between China and the United States.What do you think for this?

Yao Yunzhu: Professor Ellissen is a well -known professor at the Kennedy Government College of Harvard University. I have a repeated relationship with him and respect him very much, but I can't fully agree with his point of view.Treating wars in history more than 2500 years ago as the general law of the rise and fall of the country and the rotation of the great powers, and used this to explain that China and the United States will inevitably move towards war, which ignores many factors.

There are too many different worlds in the history of today.We have entered the era of economic globalization and information data. Sino -US relations are more complicated and more contradictory, and we cannot explain with simple analysis frameworks.In addition to the conflict between interests and opposition, there are still a lot of interests between China and the United States.It is not a wise way to solve the conflict of interest and opposition through war to solve the conflict of interest and opposition. It is not a feasible way.In addition, China and the United States do not constitute a threat to the other party, nor must it eliminate the ideology of the other party, and will not develop into a hostile relationship that you die.Competition, conflict, and confrontation will happen, but there are still many opportunities for cooperation.

Take a step back that both China and the United States are nuclear weapons countries, and both have nuclear weapons that can cause huge losses to each other.The experience of the Cold War tells us that nuclear weapons can still play a role in deterring the occurrence and upgrade of the war.Today, military conflicts between two nuclear weapons countries in China and the United States, and upgraded to large -scale war or even nuclear warI think this is a difficult scene.It is hoped that nuclear weapons will have sufficient deterrence, so that the two major powers of China and the United States will not eventually go to military conflict.

It is not necessarily scientific to fully use a historical case to describe, compare, and assume the future of Sino -US relations.

On June 1, 2019, Singapore, the 18th Shangri -La Dialogue was held in Singapore. The United States Agency Secretary of Defense Patrick Middot; Shanaham attended.Image source: Visual China

Observer.com: This year is the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, but the relationship between the two countries has covered the shadow.Not long ago, Mr. Fu Gaoyi, former director of the East Asian Center of Fei Zhengqing, said that although American politicians and senior executives are now unfriendly to China, this is not the mainstream of American society.What do you think about such a statement?In your observation, is there a certain consensus on the perception of China in all levels of American society?

Yao Yunzhu: I think the opinions of all levels of society are often diverse, in the United States and China.After all, there are so many people in the two major countries in China and the United States, such a rich cultural structure, and different interests.The people in the United States are currently friendly to China. Of course, there will be some incomprehension and dissatisfaction.The more critical issue is the elite layer of the US government, the United States, the business community, and the media including the United States. The views on China are gradually turning to negative. This kind of reasonable reason will not change because a president is elected.Change the president will change.The views of the government and elite groups and the media will have a great impact on the public's understanding of China, but this impact may not be able to appear after a while.

Judging from the current situation, the US policy community may have formed a consensus to be touched by China, but it has not yet formed a consensus on how to treat China and how to tough.To form a consensus of a country, it may take a certain time, a certain public opinion mobilization, more interaction with China to continuously verify and revise cognition, and discuss more and broadly.At present, there is no consensus on how to deal with China, there is no consensus between the same consistency and the consistent between the two parties. Even within the Republican and the Democratic Party, between the content and the content of different government departments, between the administrative departments and Congress, in different groups of society, in different groups of society.There are many differences between them.Considering these differences and differences, it is difficult to summarize the so -called mainstream views of American society in China.However, the decision -making and elite cognition of China does have a negative steering.

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