A weeks summary: I hope Trumps reality is ideal and plump

A week review

U.S. President Trump's unpredictable, on the last trading day of May, once again set off a storm in the global market.Trump suddenly posted on the evening of May 30 that he would impose 5%tariffs on all Mexican -American products from June 10 to prevent illegal immigrants.He also stated in a statement issued by the White House that tariffs on Mexican products will gradually increase, and by October 1 this year, it will eventually increase to 25%until the problem of illegal immigration will be resolved, and tariffs will be canceled.

Mexican's deputy minister of Foreign Affairs, Siad, said on the same day that the United States threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico's tariffs very extreme; if tariff measures take effect, Mexico will take countermeasures.This may lead to a trade war between the two countries.

Trump's huge unpredictability

Trump's trade war opened up a new front, and Trump's huge unpredictable, making investors unprecedentedly, and could only maintain a state of risk avoidance, which caused a sharp market to shock.

At the same time, because of the U.S. trade tariff sticks to Mexico, analysts have reached the prospect of a ceasefire agreement on the trade war against the United States and the Chinese on the other side of the Pacific.Because Mexico has previously negotiated with the United States to negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and it is also negotiating its revised version, that is, USMCA, which is still randomly levied by the United States.The use of the U.S. consultation agreement is minimal.What is the significance of China or other countries and the United States even reaching a trade agreement?In the future, which trading partner will trust the US government to fulfill its promises?This doubt is bound to crack down on the progress of trade negotiation between Washington and Beijing.

Faced with the end of the Sino -US trade agreement, the global economy has reproduced the prospects of pessimism. Although the Chinese government's senior management has frequently showed confidence in recent times, after all, the ideal is full and the reality is very sensible: due to production, new orders, especially export order indexes, the decline in the export order index declinesLarge drag, China's official manufacturing PMI returned to the shrinking area below 50 to 49.4, reflecting that the Sino -US trade war has dragged down China's exports, corporate confidence has weakened, and the degree of deterioration exceeds expectations.The situation is under great pressure.

The market is worried that the trend in May has been terrible, and it has fallen by about 2.6%of the RMB in one month. In view of the fact that the Chinese economy lost its power again in April, the profit of industrial enterprises declined.Tian Tian suspended the public market operation and tightened the liquidity. Now it is superimposed with the latest PMI data released yesterday.It will also devalue further.

Economic secondary bottoming risk increases

In addition, in view of the complexity of Trump's stick to Mexico and upgrading tariffs, it indicates that the opportunity to reconcile with the United States in the short term is not much worse.Weaken confidence, and many analysts are worried that as the global environment and the Chinese economy are dragged down, the possibility of the second bottom of the Chinese economy has become increasingly bigger.

Faced with increasingly strong national economic growth, Chinese President ... On May 29, he presided over the eighth meeting of the Central Committee of Comprehensive Deepening the Reform Commission.The increasing unstable factors have increased, and reform and development are facing many new situations and problems.China should maintain its strategic determination, adhere to the problem -oriented, due to the situation, planning, planning, and accurate policies, and strives to prevent and resolve major contradictions and prominent issues, and promote the reform of the reform and social development.

Prepare for the persistence of economic and trade conflicts

On the other hand, according to Bloomberg, China is mobilizing the state -owned enterprise giants of the energy industry to prepare for Sino -US economic and trade conflicts that may be further upgraded and long -lasting.

At a meeting held in Beijing on Wednesday (May 29), Wang Yilin, chairman of China Petroleum Natural Gas Group Co., Ltd., urged company employees to fully understand the long -term and complexity of Sino -US economic and trade frictions, and make more long -term thinking.

On the same day of the forum held in Shanghai, Fu Chengyu, former chairman of China Petroleum and Chemical Group Co., Ltd., delivered a speech saying that China should prepare for such potential extreme situations for short -term oil disconnection.

At the same time, the Chinese President ... Hosted a meeting in Beijing to approve Shanxi Province as a pilot to carry out comprehensive reform of the energy revolution.The trade war and the US sanctions on major oil -producing countries such as Iran, Venezuela, etc., so that ... the policy of large -scale reduction of crude oil imports has been given new significance.

Some analysts believe that China is making the worst plans like US sanctions in Iran for its own crude oil supply status.

As of now, the Chinese think tank's confidence in China's economic growth has not yet shaken.According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences on Wednesday, the Blue Book is expected to be released on Wednesday, from the perspective of the year, the growth rate of China's GDP (GDP) may be bottomed out in the second or third quarters, and then began to rise slightly.The development trend, China's economy grew by about 6.4%in 2019, can achieve the growth goals set at the beginning of the year.

Lin Yifu, Dean of the New Structural Economics Research Institute of Peking University, Dean of the School of Cooperation and Development of Nannan, and honorary dean of the National Development Research Institute, still maintains his consistent optimism.

He said that it is entirely possible to make full use of domestic space and use various policies to achieve 6%or higher growth this year.There is a lot of space for China's industrial upgrading and improvement of infrastructure, and there are good investment opportunities in the fields of environmental protection and urbanization. This is where China is different from developed countries.At present, China's residents' liabilities account for less than 60%of GDP, which is low in the world; private savings account for nearly 50%, and they are one of the highest countries in the world.In addition, China still has a foreign exchange reserve of $ 3 trillion. Rich investment resources are different from other developing countries.

He believes that as long as the advantages of investment are exerted, they can promote employment, continue to increase residents' income and stimulate consumption; at the same time, continue to open up, and use markets and resources outside the United States to maintain a reasonable growth rate of China's economy.

Lin Yifu said with confidence: Trade is two -way, and frictions are not good for both parties, but such disadvantages of China are tolerated. The pace and prospects of China's development will not be affected by the trade war.

I hope that the bone reality that investors are currently seeing him are expensive, and it becomes very full as ideal.